So I'm reading Molly Knight's new book about the Dodgers and it's really good and I'm sure you'll be hearing a lot more about it.
Today, though, I want to write just a little bit about when Don Mattingly retired, after the 1995 season (thus missing by one year the Yankees' first championship since before he joined them). From Knight's The Best Team Money Can Buy:
... Mattingly hated missing months of his kids' lives every year. So he made a decision. "Everybody always thinks it was my back," Mattingly told ESPN later, about why he retired. "But it was really about my kids. I had kind of figured out how to play with the back. I went a couple of years where I couldn't find my swing. I was messing with different stances, and a couple years were lean for me. But the last year, I was rolling. I was really crushing." After the 1995 season, the Yankees offered him a multiyear contract. He turned it down.
First, the obvious: Mattingly's concern for his family is commendable. And it's backed up by the fact that he didn't get back into baseball, as a coach with the Yankees, until his kids were all nearly grown. I don't doubt for a moment that Mattingly wanted to spend more time with his family, and I admire him for it.
But there is approximately zero statistical evidence to support the idea that he was really crushing in his last season.
Mattingly was a great hitter for four seasons: 1984 through '87. He slipped a little in 1988 and '89, then crashed in '90. He was just fair in '91 and '92, then posted these wOBA in his last three seasons:
.356
.359
.329
Let me be very clear: Those are not batting averages. A .329 wOBA meant Mattingly was a below-average hitter in 1995. Not below average for a first baseman. Below average, period.
I thought maybe he was really crushing late in the season, and that's what he's remembering? Here are Mattingly's OPS's by month in '95:
526
867
650
943
538
831
Yeah, he was really good in May and (especially) July and September! But really awful in April and August. And if you buy the metrics, overall it was the second-worst season of his career. By a lot.
And if Mattingly had returned to the Yankees, would they not have signed Tino Martinez to play first base in '96? The good news, I guess, is that even if Mattinly had played a lot for the Yankees that season, they still probably would have done quite well, as they finished four games ahead of the second-place Orioles on their way to the World Series.
I think where this question gets interesting is when you talk about the Hall of Fame. Some people think Mattingly belongs in there, and maybe his case is just a bit stronger if you assume he passed up some big seasons in favor of family life. I just don't see any evidence that those big seasons were coming.
Update: A reader points out that Mattingly was still hitting for decent batting averages, even in 1995. Which might be what he remembers ... except, again, he wasn't as good in '95 as he'd been in '94.
