WhatIfSports college football Week 6 predictions: Tennessee's luck runs out vs. Texas A&M

BY foxsports • December 24, 2016

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's college football simulation engine generates predictions for every Division I FBS game for the coming week. Our highly sophisticated algorithms simulate every play of every game to produce each team's likelihood to win. Each matchup is simulated 101 times.

Week 5 in Review

We continue to be successful on the Games to Watch portion of these pieces. Last week, we highlighted the Louisville/Clemson game. The simulations suggested that the Cardinals couldn't get it done in Death Valley and they were right. However, we lost another Upset of the Week when Utah couldn't stop Davis Webb and the Cal passing attack.

Nailed It: Penn State 29 -€“ Minnesota 26

It took some overtime, but the Penn State win went just as we predicted. The Nittany Lions' Saquon Barkley ran 25 yards into the end zone, securing a win over the Golden Gophers. We had PSU winning 59.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 27.1-25.3.

Wide Right: Washington 44 - Stanford 6

The Huskies continue to impress as they stomped No. 7 Stanford on Friday night. Jake Browning threw three TDs and tallied 210 yards against the Cardinal defense and the Huskies held Christian McCaffrey to only 49 rushing yards, his lowest total since November of 2014. We predicted Stanford to win 57.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.6-26.9.

Track our 2016 performance or view our accuracy last season, when we correctly picked the winner in 80.0 percent of all games involving FBS teams.

Week 6 Top 25 vs. Top 25 Matchups

No. 25 Virginia Tech at No. 17 North Carolina

Both ACC teams stumbled in their matchup with a member from the SEC this season. The Hokies lost to unbeaten Tennessee in the Battle at Bristol and the Tar Heels fell to Georgia in Week 1. Since the opening loss, UNC has won four straight games, including a shootout with Florida State last week (37-35). Junior Mitch Trubisky has been the driving force behind the Tar Heels offense. In his first year as a full-time starter, Trubisky has yet to thrown an interception. He's also tallied at least 400 passing yards in the past four contests. As for Virginia Tech, other than the one hiccup, its defense has delivered in 2016. Virginia Tech is ninth in the nation when it comes to yardage allowed per game (264) and the Hokies only surrender an average of 18.8 points per game. According to our simulations, UNC will surpass that 18.8 average this week as they win 66.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 30.1-26.6.

No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Texas A&M

The Volunteers and Aggies currently lead their respective divisions in the SEC, just like everyone predicted. Well, maybe not everybody...or anybody. Tennessee survived last week on a last-second Hail Mary from Joshua Dobbs to Jauan Jennings in a 34-31 win over Georgia. The Volunteers now get an undefeated Aggies team and, potentially, another undefeated team in Alabama the following week. A&M is in the same boat. After this game, the team gets a week off before traveling to Tuscaloosa. Who will be the lone unbeaten team before their matchup with the Tide? Our simulations report that the Aggies win 58.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.8-27.9.

No. 1 Alabama at No. 16 Arkansas

So, in the previous scenario, we were just running under the assumption that the Tide would remain undefeated after Week 6, mainly because Alabama hasn't lost to Arkansas in the past nine meetings. Well, I'm sure Arkansas will have something to say about that this Saturday. The Razorbacks have the second-most wins in the SEC West, but they haven't recorded a win within the conference yet. They'll face an Alabama defense that allows an average of 13 points per game (ninth-best in NCAA). When we crunch the numbers, 'Bama wins 67.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.3-22.3.

No. 23 Florida State at No. 10 Miami

Bobby Bowden and Larry Coker aren't patrolling the sidelines anymore, but this rivalry still has meaning. Between all the missed late field goals, Miami leads the overall series 31-29, even though FSU has won the past six meetings. The U is undefeated and produces a very balanced offense. They average 232.5 rushing yards and 241.8 passing yards per game. The running back duo of Mark Walton and Joseph Yearby each average over seven yards per attempt and have scored at least five touchdowns apiece. The Seminoles have been leaning on their star running back, Dalvin Cook. In the past two games, he's accumulated 407 rushing yards and five TDs. After running the simulations, Miami wins 56.4 percent of the time, by an average score of 29.7-28.4

Week 6 Upset Pick

Florida (+2.5) over LSU

Vegas doesn't seem to think the Tigers will have a hard time adjusting to Ed Orgeron as the new head coach of LSU. Last week, in his first game replacing Les Miles, the Tigers ran for 418 yards and six TDs against Missouri. The Gators are 11th in the country by allowing only 90.6 rushing yards per game. Something's got to give. Our computers suggest the Tigers will become gator bait. Florida wins 52.3 percent of the time, by an average score of 24.8-24.0.

College Football Week 6 Predictions
Matchup Win % Avg. Score  
Army West Point Black Knights 25.7 23.2 Box Score
@ Duke Blue Devils 74.3 30.3  
Virginia Tech Hokies 33.7 26.6 Box Score
@ North Carolina Tar Heels 66.3 30.1  
Syracuse Orange 40.1 24.3 Box Score
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons 59.9 28.1  
Florida State Seminoles 43.6 28.4 Box Score
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes 56.4 29.7  
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 44.6 24.6 Box Score
@ Pittsburgh Panthers 55.4 26.4  
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 51.3 26.7 Box Score
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack 48.7 26.0  
Clemson Tigers 69.3 26.9 Box Score
@ Boston College Eagles 30.7 19.9  
Indiana Hoosiers 34.7 24.8 Box Score
@ Ohio State Buckeyes 65.3 31.9  
Maryland Terrapins 40.6 25.2 Box Score
@ Penn State Nittany Lions 59.4 27.4  
Purdue Boilermakers 45.7 27.3 Box Score
@ Illinois Fighting Illini 54.3 28.5  
BYU Cougars 48.9 25.7 Box Score
@ Michigan State Spartans 51.1 26.4  
Iowa Hawkeyes 56.5 26.6 Box Score
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers 43.5 24.6  
Michigan Wolverines 81.2 33.9 Box Score
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights 18.8 23.8  
Miami (OH) RedHawks 34.7 26.6 Box Score
@ Akron Zips 65.3 30.1  
Ball State Cardinals 39.6 28.6 Box Score
@ Central Michigan Chippewas 60.4 31.6  
Northern Illinois Huskies 41.6 29.0 Box Score
@ Western Michigan Broncos 58.4 31.4  
Kent State Golden Flashes 45.3 24.5 Box Score
@ Buffalo Bulls 54.7 25.6  
Bowling Green Falcons 46.5 29.2 Box Score
@ Ohio Bobcats 53.5 30.6  
Toledo Rockets 56.4 35.1 Box Score
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles 43.6 31.0  
Washington State Cougars 37.6 29.5 Box Score
@ Stanford Cardinal 62.4 34.4  
Arizona Wildcats 45.3 27.2 Box Score
@ Utah Utes 54.7 28.2  
Colorado Buffaloes 48.5 29.0 Box Score
@ USC Trojans 51.5 29.9  
UCLA Bruins 54.5 30.7 Box Score
@ Arizona State Sun Devils 45.5 29.3  
Washington Huskies 58.4 31.9 Box Score
@ Oregon Ducks 41.6 28.9  
California Golden Bears 63.4 32.5 Box Score
@ Oregon State Beavers 36.6 28.0  
Tennessee Volunteers 41.6 27.9 Box Score
@ Texas A&M Aggies 58.4 29.8  
LSU Tigers 47.7 24.0 Box Score
@ Florida Gators 52.3 24.8  
Vanderbilt Commodores 49.8 25.6 Box Score
@ Kentucky Wildcats 50.2 26.1  
Auburn Tigers 54.5 28.0 Box Score
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs 45.5 27.1  
Georgia Bulldogs 66.3 28.7 Box Score
@ South Carolina Gamecocks 33.7 22.9  
Alabama Crimson Tide 67.3 29.3 Box Score
@ Arkansas Razorbacks 32.7 22.3  
Iowa State Cyclones 26.7 24.2 Box Score
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys 73.3 31.4  
Texas Tech Red Raiders 45.5 29.1 Box Score
@ Kansas State Wildcats 54.5 30.1  
Oklahoma Sooners 51.0 28.1 Box Score
@ Texas Longhorns 49.0 26.9  
TCU Horned Frogs 76.2 31.2 Box Score
@ Kansas Jayhawks 23.8 21.6  
Massachusetts Minutemen 41.6 28.6 Box Score
@ Old Dominion Monarchs 58.4 31.9  
FIU Golden Panthers 46.4 28.5 Box Score
@ UTEP Miners 53.6 29.7  
Charlotte 49ers 45.0 21.7 Box Score
@ Florida Atlantic Owls 55.0 25.0  
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 57.4 33.5 Box Score
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 42.6 31.3  
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 58.4 28.6 Box Score
@ UTSA Roadrunners 41.6 26.8  
Marshall Thundering Herd 74.3 32.2 Box Score
@ North Texas Mean Green 25.7 24.9  
UNLV Rebels 21.8 24.4 Box Score
@ San Diego State Aztecs 78.2 32.8  
Fresno State Bulldogs 46.5 29.0 Box Score
@ Nevada Wolf Pack 53.5 30.0  
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 47.5 29.2 Box Score
@ San Jose State Spartans 52.5 29.6  
Air Force Falcons 59.4 32.4 Box Score
@ Wyoming Cowboys 40.6 28.4  
Utah State Aggies 62.4 31.1 Box Score
@ Colorado State Rams 37.6 25.9  
Boise State Broncos 65.3 31.9 Box Score
@ New Mexico Lobos 34.7 26.0  
Texas State Bobcats 47.6 32.0 Box Score
@ Georgia State Panthers 52.4 32.4  
Idaho Vandals 47.7 29.4 Box Score
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 52.3 29.5  
Georgia Southern Eagles 56.4 29.8 Box Score
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves 43.6 26.6  
SMU Mustangs 34.7 27.4 Box Score
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane 65.3 32.2  
East Carolina Pirates 43.6 26.5 Box Score
@ South Florida Bulls 56.4 29.1  
Tulane Green Wave 44.1 25.8 Box Score
@ UCF Knights 55.9 29.4  
Temple Owls 45.5 27.3 Box Score
@ Memphis Tigers 54.5 28.4  
Cincinnati Bearcats 59.4 29.5 Box Score
@ Connecticut Huskies 40.6 25.5  
Houston Cougars 71.8 30.8 Box Score
@ Navy Midshipmen 28.2 25.4  

In addition, view our Week 6 power rankings or visit our college football archive for predictions from past weeks. For more statistics, view our weekly college football predictions.



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