Major League Baseball

Twins' Nolasco better than ERA indicates

Published Jun. 13, 2016 5:00 p.m. ET

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Ricky Nolasco has a 5.17 ERA in 12 starts this season, but advanced metrics suggest he is actually pitching better than that.

The 33-year-old, who will start when the Twins play the Los Angeles Angels on Monday, has a Fielding Independent Pitching of 3.54 this season. That suggests he hasn't struggled as much as his ERA would indicate.

FIP estimates a pitcher's run prevention independent of the performance of their defense, a stat Fangraphs.com says is generally a better representation of performance than ERA.

AL, Largest Difference in FIP < ERA -- 2016 (minimum 50 IP)

Nolasco will face an Angels' lineup led by the dangerous Mike Trout, who has put together one of the best all-around offensive starts to his career in baseball history. The 25-year-old has been arguably the most complete play in the majors since his debut in 2011, hitting 152 home runs while batting .304.

MLB Players with .300+ BA, 150+ HR, 100+ SB in 1st 6 Seasons Since 1886 (when stolen bases became official)

^Willie Mays was in the Army for much of the 1952 season, and all of the 1953 campaign.

Trout is leading an Angels' team that is just 27-36 on the year but has been strong on offense in their wins. The team has a .314 batting average in wins this year, which ranks fourth in the majors.

MLB, Worst 1st-Inning Run Differential - 2016

Much like the Twins, however, the Angels have struggled this year after a winning 2015 season. While the Twins have the largest decrease in winning percentage from 2015 to 2016, the Angels are close behind.

Information courtesy STATS Inc.

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