Three Cuts: Braves comeback falls short, drop series to Nationals
For the first time since September 2013, the Atlanta Braves lost a series to the Washington Nationals, and it couldn't have come at a worse time. Stuck in a logjam in the National League wildcard race, the Braves needed to string together a couple good outings in Washington to try and gain some ground.
Instead, with two straight losses at Nationals Park, their backs are against the wall while trying to avoid suffering their first sweep at the hands of the Nationals since May 2012. Here are three observations from the game:
After weeks and months of pointing to the final six games against the Nationals, divisional clashes that were expected to carry significant NL East implications, it became more and more clear in the build-up to this three-game set in the nation's capitol that these were two teams playing for two different objectives.
Barring a drastic change in both franchises' fortunes over the few remaining games of the 2014 campaign, the Nationals were going to walk away with the division title and the Braves, well, that all remained up in the air. It still does -- and their playoff odds aren't promising.
With their 6-4 win on Tuesday night, the Nationals' magic number is now set at 10, while the Braves are simply 3-7 in their last 10 games, falling nine games back in the NL East and 1 1/2 games back in the wildcard behind the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Fortunately for the Braves, the Pirates also dropped their Tuesday night affair. In what looks to be a four-team race -- yes, Miami is closing the gap at only 3 1/2 games back -- in which the winner will likely be the one team that doesn't completely implode by season's end (this NL wildcard hunt is all kinds of bad), the Braves could not have chosen a worse time to see their string of dominance over their division rival come to such a grinding halt.
The momentum is gone. The head-to-head mojo -- if that was ever a real thing -- is no more.
The Braves are what they are at this point: a sub-.500 team that simply enjoyed a good start to the season. The offense is poor, the pitching is strong. This isn't too complicated: they are 57-61 since May 1. (Of course, it helps that the National League overall is unimpressive. Since the start of May, only five NL teams -- five NL teams -- boast a record of .500 or better. The Braves fall in with the rest of the crowd.) If they are going to take the second wildcard spot, and then make a push once they get in the playoffs, they will have to become something they are not.
The odds are stacked against them, though.
Even as the Pirates lost, they have the upper hand. According to Baseball Prospectus oddsmakers, the Braves have a 25.3 percent chance of making the postseason (only 0.5 percent of that goes toward them winning the division). Pittsburgh is twice as likely to claim the final wildcard spot: 52.8 percent.
With every game carrying such a heavy weight, Atlanta needed a better showing in Washington. But the Nationals simply proved, for the first time in a head-to-head meeting this season, that they are the better team.
If the Braves held out any hope of salvaging a series win after another subpar night at the the plate in Monday's loss, they were all but dashed in the first 20 minutes on Tuesday night.
Starter Ervin Santana gave up four runs in the opening frame on four singles, one double and two sacrifice hits. This should not come as a huge surprise, as Santana has run into first-inning struggles (4.33 ERA) this season before settling in for innings Nos. 2-5. That was pretty much the case in this one, and it came at a bad time because the offense did push across some runs to avoid another shutdown outing from opposing starter Jordan Zimmermann. Santana lasted just five innings while giving up six earned runs -- he wasn't helped by a two-base error from rookie catcher Christian Bethancourt, which result in the Nats' fifth run -- in a disappointing outing. He walked four batters and gave up eight hits.
"They came out swinging the bat, and they were really, really aggressive on the first couple of pitches of every at-bat. And usually those balls, when they do that against (Santana), he gets quick outs. But today they found the outfield grass and they put a big number up," Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said. "We weren't able to recover after that."
Coming off a loss and with No. 5 starter Aaron Harang, who has been touched up to the tune of a 7.98 ERA in his past three starts, taking on Stephen Strasburg, Atlanta needed its high-profile free agent acquisition to come through.
Now, not only did the Braves drop the series, but they face the very real possibility that the Nationals will eschew their recent divisional demons with a series sweep and further cement their 2014 NL East title.
The way this series set up, in terms of pitching probables, was already not ideal. The Nationals avoided Julio Teheran and Alex Wood while throwing out two of their three best starters -- and the other just happened to be Doug Fister, the owner of a 2.53 ERA who pitched eight shutout innings that last time he faced Atlanta. Washington held the pitching edge coming into this matchup, one of the few teams that claimed that luxury against the Braves this season.
The Braves will take four runs against Zimmermann any time out. They just couldn't get the type of start they have grown so accustomed to from Santana.
Buried beneath the Braves' mountain of offensive problems this season, but contributing in no small way all the same, the bat of Andrelton Simmons has gone cold -- or, lately, completely silent. This is concerning on a variety of levels, if only because while the defense remains top-notch its not overshadowing his performance at the plate anymore.
Since the All-Star break, he's one of 26 qualified MLB players to post a negative wins above replacement. His teammate, B.J. Upton, joins him on that list. And while hitting .179/.227/.255 with two homers over that stretch, Simmons owned a 32 weighted runs created plus, less than half of Upton's production over that span.
That also makes him the worst qualified hitter in baseball during the season's second half, "edging" Houston's Matt Dominguez, Kansas City's Omar Infante and Cincinnati's Billy Hamilton for the bottom spot.
When the Braves signed Simmons to his long-term extension during spring training, the popular talking point centered around his defense, something along the lines of: "If he keeps producing with the glove, everything else is icing on the cake." I'm not entirely sure that still applies if he's going to hit at such an abysmal rate for an offense prone to going through abysmal stretches.
Full disclosure: I projected Simmons' would take another step forward offensively this season. That certainly has not been the case. If anything, he's taken two steps back. After posting a 103 wRC+ in his rookie season and following that up by hitting .248/.296/.396 with 17 homers during his Gold Glove sophomore campaign, the power and plate discipline have taken a nosedive. And it's resulted in a steady decline in production:
A major concern for Simmons, in addition to his dramatic drop in slugging percentage, is his decline in plate discipline. Tuesday night's broadcast pointed to a longer, slower swing, but at any rate his strikeouts have spiked while his walk rate, which was always low, has pretty much held steady. Atlanta's shortstop holds a 9.7 career walk rate, but after essentially striking out a couple times a month (or less) and possessing the fifth-lowest K-rate in baseball (8.8 percent) through the first 90 games, he's fanning 15.5 percent of the time.
On Tuesday, Simmons went 0 for 3 with a strikeout, dropping his season numbers to .238/.283/.329 with seven homers.
It certainly doesn't help that there aren't many places to bury him in this lineup -- Gonzalez has regularly slotted those numbers at the No. 2 hole since the All-Star break -- but Simmons is not just a footnote in the Braves' offensive struggles. He's a key part of it. His glove keeps him in the everyday lineup, but those numbers have hurt.
