RotoWire MLB Bats And Balls - REVISED
Last week I touched on some hitters off to slow starts and what
to expect from them going forward. Unfortunately, my fantasy
rosters are similarly full of slow-starting pitchers, and, in fact,
here are the pitchers from my currently-in-last 10-team NL-only
squad:
Josh Beckett ($10 at auction) - Yes, I bought into last
year's 2.93 ERA in seven starts with the Dodgers.
Trevor Cahill ($13 keeper) - 2.80 ERA is nice, so can't
complain.
Edwin Jackson ($8 keeper) - Price seemed right, but with a
6.39 ERA, apparently it wasn't.
Ricky Nolasco ($2 at auction) - Can't argue with a $2 pick,
and just can't quit this guy. He's been OK given the cost.
Wily Peralta ($2 at auction) - As a $2 end-game pick, this
seemed like a good idea. Oops.
Zack Greinke ($29 at auction) - Surprised no one went $30 ...
wish they had.
I also have Mike Leake ($10 reserve pick) and a $2 FAAB'd
Eric
Stults, but this is a pretty ugly group. I'm happy with Craig
Kimbrel, Jim Henderson and even Steve Cishek in my bullpen, but I'm
ninth in ERA and WHIP, sixth in strikeouts and tied for last in
wins.
Let's touch on a few pitchers off to slow starts and see if
there are positive signs of an impending turnaround or indications
that it's time to simply cut bait:
Roy Halladay (SP-PHI) - Many of you think Halladay is
"done," and sure, we could hear that he needs shoulder surgery at
some point, but is there any indication that Halladay could
actually be a buy-low guy? The first thing that jumps out is his
4.16 xFIP versus an 8.65 ERA. That's an unprecedented variance and
could indicate that he's really pitching better than his ERA
suggests. Second, a 9.2 K/9. Halladay isn't getting hitters to
chase pitchers outside the zone (22.6 percent outside the zone
swing rate vs. nearly 30 percent career), but he's getting batters
to swing and miss, as is also indicated by a 10.7-percent
swinging-strike rate that is right in line with recent years.
Halladay's velocity is down about a mph over last year, but that's
not overly alarming. What is alarming is that he's walking 11
percent of the batters he's facing versus a career mark in the
5-percent range.
Bottom line: So we have a pitcher whose stuff still allows
him to miss bats, but is also missing the strike zone at, for him,
an alarming rate. Factor in a 28.1-percent HR/FB rate that is bound
to come down, and you have a pitcher who looks like a good buy-low
candidate.
Matt Cain (SP-SF) - Cain could very well be your
highest-drafted pitcher, so the 1-2 record and 5.57 ERA are
obviously huge disappointments. Still, this is Matt Cain, he of
seven consecutive seasons with at least a 3.2 WAR. His 7.7 K/9 and
2.8 BB/9 compare favorably to his 7.5 and 3.1 career marks, though
the walks are up a bit over recent seasons. Cain's velocity is down
about a half mile an hour over last year, and somewhat of a concern
is a rather low 7.4-percent swinging-strike rate. Cain rebounded
with 7.1 innings of one-run ball vs. the Dodgers last time out, but
before getting too excited, the Dodgers rolled out an infield of
Uribe, Punto, Gordon and Cruz.
Bottom line: Cain is 28 and in the prime of his career. His
issues with the long ball (1.9 HR/9) should improve quickly given a
16.7-percent HR/FB rate that is bound to decline. He's also
stranded just 61 percent of his runners, a rate that should be more
in the 75-percent range. He'll be just fine.
Joe Blanton (SP-LAA) - So here's a pitcher about whom I'm
not overly optimistic. Might the Angels have been evaluating
advanced metrics prior to signing Blanton to a two-year $15 million
deal this winter? Blanton the last three years:
YEAR | ERA | xFIP |
2010 | 4.82 | 3.87 |
2011 | 5.01 | 3.15 |
2012 | 4.71 | 3.39 |
So in recent years, he has consistently underperformed his
underlying peripherals, including BB/9 rates of 2.2, 2.0 and 1.6
the previous three seasons. Now back in the AL West, Blanton is
struggling. Batters are hitting .353 against him, and his K/9 has
plummeted to 4.2 while the walks are up (2.9 BB/9). Even more
simply, when hitters swing at his pitches, they don't often miss,
as Blanton's 6.3-percent swinging strike rate is among the lowest
in the big leagues (16th among the 110 qualified starters).
Bottom line: I can see streaming him in AL-only and very deep
mixed leagues, but if you're expecting a third consecutive sub-4.00
ERA season, you will be disappointed.
Ryan Vogelsong (SP-SF) - With his 7.20 ERA, one wonders
whether Vogelsong is long for the Giants rotation. Fortunately for
his job security, the Giants' best Triple-A starter has a 4.97 ERA,
so unless the organization wants to reach down to Double-A for
27-year-old Justin Fitzgerald (1.09 ERA through six starts),
Vogelsong will get plenty of rope. Perhaps this table will help
show why I think he can turn things around:
YEAR | K/9 | BB/9 | BABIP | HR/FB% | FB% |
2011 | 7.0 | 3.1 | .288 | 8.2 | 34.0 |
2012 | 7.5 | 2.9 | .290 | 8.2 | 38.0 |
2013 | 7.7 | 3.1 | .356 | 18.6 | 37.4 |
Strikeouts and walks are the same, BABIP is inflated, way
more homers than normal and slightly fewer flyballs generated. Of
some concern is the 1.4 mph drop in his fastball over last year and
the low 6.8-percent swinging-strike rate, but then again, that
latter number was in the low sevens in prior years.
Bottom line: Vogelsong is a great story, rising from the dead
in San Francisco, and despite the slow start, I'm confident he can
be a solid option outside of the shallowest of leagues.
Jarrod Parker (SP-OAK) - A former top-10 pick, Parker has
risen quickly through the ranks, but he's ultimately stalled this
year. Still, Parker is just 24 and already has a 3.5 WAR season on
his hands, but as of this season, Parker has yet to take it to the
next level. At this point in a top pitching prospect's career, we
hope for a step forward, but not only has Parker seen his strikeout
rate take a 0.4 K/9 dip to 6.6, he's also lost his control - 4.7
BB/9 vs. 3.1 last year. He's allowing more flyballs, and with a
bloated 17.4-percent HR/FB rate, he's getting a bit more whiplash
than in prior years.
Bottom line: Parker's youth and prospect pedigree will
probably have me going back to the well for at least the next
couple years, and perhaps he's taking the Homer Bailey career path.
That would mean one should sell shares this year and buy at some
point in 2015. As for 2013, expect continued highs and lows.
David Price (SP-TB) - Ah, the reigning AL Cy Young
winner. Price isn't exactly anchoring the Rays' rotation so far in
2013, going 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA through his first six starts. I see
a lot of panicked owners asking whether they should, for example,
trade Price for the likes of Chris Davis because they also have
Prince Fielder at the utility position. Um yes, please do. It's
seven starts, folks. Price has lost a couple mph off his fastball
over last year, but his strikeout rate is only down a tick, and
Price's control is in line with prior years. Another data point
would be Price's BABIP, a number that sits at .288 for his career
but that has clocked in at .349 this season. Price's velocity is
down two-plus mph over last year, but it's too early to panic over
that.
Bottom line: Price's xFIP sits at 3.35 versus his 6.25 ERA,
and I'd bet on the former number being the top end of his ERA the
rest of the way.
Brandon McCarthy (SP-ARI) - Arizona invest a lot in
McCarthy this winter, and so far, that investment has brought
minimal returns. McCarthy is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA through his first
six starts, but should we be optimistic when we see a 6.1 K/9 and
1.4 BB/9? Probably. McCarthy's 3.73 xFIP is lower than last year's
4.23, but his ERA is four points higher? Does not compute.
McCarthy's velocity is actually up nearly a full mph over last
year, but his struggles this year all come down to command.
McCarthy isn't walking a lot of batters, and hitters aren't missing
very often when they swing at his pitches. His 5.7-percent swinging
strike rate is a career-low and ranks among the lowest rates in the
league. It's great that McCarthy is throwing strikes with a decent
amount of velocity, but either movement on his pitches isn't there
or he's simply catching
TOO much of the plate.
Bottom line: McCarthy is reportedly making adjustments to his
fastball to keep it down in the zone more often, so it appears the
D-backs at least recognize he needs to tweak things. We'll see how
things go in L.A. next Tuesday, but there is some optimism to be
had. That said, I've bought in on McCarthy and been burned before,
so I can't completely endorse him, but as long as he's healthy,
there's a good pitcher in here.
Jeremy Hellickson (SP-TB) - Hellickson isn't off to a
horrible start, but at 1-2 with a 4.79 ERA, we still expected more.
Actually we've expected more since his debut in 2010, as Hellickson
regularly posted BB/9s in the 2.0 range in the minors. But that
rate sits at 3.1 in his 440-plus career big league innings.
Hellickson has bumped up his swinging-strike rate a full point to
9.9 percent over last year, and his low-90s fastball and solid
curve and change give him an arsenal strong enough to keep hitters
off balance given his usual solid location.
Bottom line: I just don't see Hellickson ever being the No. 2
starter I thought he could be back in the 2008 range, but there's
still enough here to expect a little more than we've seen from him
so far in 2013.
Jon Niese (SP-NYM) - This is a tough one. On one hand we
have a solid lefty with a 30-start 3.40 ERA season under his belt.
On the other, we have a pitcher who's really scuffling this year to
the tune of a 4.66 ERA, and all the ratios indicate that he
deserves every bit of that ERA. This is certainly a disturbing
trend:
YEAR | K/9 | BB/9 |
2010 | 7.7 | 3.2 |
2011 | 7.9 | 2.5 |
2012 | 7.3 | 2.3 |
2013 | 4.9 | 4.7 |
Regan is a five-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner.
Follow @vtadave on Twitter.
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