From afar I have often marveled at Joc Pederson's swing. It is violent, it is strong and the baseball goes a long way when he connects. As is the case with many young hitters these days, there are no changes in Pederson's swing based on the count. Whether 2-0 or 0-2, the swing is the same.
The all-or-nothing approach had resulted in some impressive early home run totals for the 23-year-old Pederson. Back on June 22, Pederson had 19 homers and was on pace to hit 43. Had he stayed on pace, it would have been the second-highest total ever by a rookie. Mark McGwire, Pederson's hitting coach in L.A., hit the most home runs as a rookie when he hit 49 in 1987.
Like most rookies, Pederson has been going through an adjustment period. The league has learned him how to attack him, but he has yet to make the adjustment. Since June 23, Pederson has slashed .177/.256/.283. He's hit just two homers in that time to go with 40 strikeouts in 125 plate appearances.
His recent performance led to this quote by Don Mattingly after Tuesday night's loss versus the A's:
The struggles and results should not be that much of a surprise. It happens to most rookies. The strikeouts that have taken Don Mattingly back shouldn't be, either.
In 2014 between Triple-A and a September call-up, Pederson struck out 160 times in 591 plate appearances, or once every 3.7 at-bats. Playing for Escogido in the Dominican winter league last year, he struck out once every 2.8 at-bats in 22 games. So far in 2015, Pederson has struck out 123 times in 416 plate appearances, or once every 3.4 plate appearances.
The slightly worse MLB strikeout rate is very reasonable when you consider Pederson mostly faced Triple-A pitching last season while facing MLB pitching exclusively this season.
I was talking to an MLB veteran recently about a Triple-A player who was struggling at the big league level. His numbers in MLB were worse than they were in Triple-A. His analysis was simple: "Of course the numbers are worse, did someone actually think he was going to come to the big leagues and hit better than he did in Triple-A?"
And that's the story with Joc Pederson. He's a good player with a bright future, but he's still looking for consistency in the big leagues. In the meantime, he'll be a little bit worse than he was in Triple-A, and that means a lot of strikeouts. No one should be surprised.
