There should be no alternative. If the Miami Heat do not win a championship this season, they should blow up this grand experiment and start again.
This is not just because if they fail a second year in a row to turn the Big Three into at least one big score that it will have become clear there is an inherent fallacy behind the premise that combining LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh would lead to utter dominance.
Put aside the schadenfreude stemming from another mockery being made of LeBron's now infamous boast of "not one, not two … not seven." Put aside that even the pundits talked of 72 wins and a certain dynasty.
Focus, instead, on the fact that the Miami Heat's time is right now. It is this season, period. Right now, many of their threats to winning a championship appear weakened. The Chicago Bulls, the top seed in the East, remain a serious question mark because of Derrick Rose's injuries – and they, too, could retool if they fail to get it done this year.
The Boston Celtics, while dangerous, have their own injury issues and seem to be on their last legs. They aren't quite the threat they were last season. In Orlando, Dwight Howard is out for the season, removing Miami's biggest individual matchup nightmare. New York has the talent, but not the chemistry. The Pacers are the opposite.
That's just the East. The Clippers are still in their first year with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin and presumably will be better the second time around. The Mavs don't have the firepower to repeat as champs, but they could reload this summer if they're able to land Howard (by trade) or Deron Williams (free agency). And the Thunder, a championship threat right now, should only be better and more seasoned come next year.
The Lakers will always be in the mix for the next great player, and Andrew Bynum seems to be rounding into a dominant star. But with Kobe Bryant in his 16th season and Metta World Peace suspended for the first six playoff games, is Bynum good enough to help lead them to a title this season? Unlikely.
All of this means that if the Miami Heat can't win as constructed right now, it's hard to envision them doing so next year. The road will never be as open as it is now. A failure in 2012 doesn't just underscore the incompatibility of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James as teammates. It likely gets us a year closer to Wade's body giving out, and it probably puts even more grinding pressure on LeBron after another glaring failure.
The Heat were supposed to dominate from the get-go. Perhaps they will, starting in a few days, by riding through the playoffs and accomplishing what they could not against Dallas in June. But fail to win the NBA championship this season and they've proven that, as constructed, it doesn't work. In that case there would be no need to send out the same high-priced over-hyped mistake into an even more difficult NBA arena next year.
Here, then, are four possible ways to blow this thing up and try again.
GOODBYE, 'BRON
This makes Miami fans again accuse me of being a LeBron hater (I'm not), numbers crunchers throw their calculators across the room and some old-school beat writers nod in agreement and mumble it'll never happen. And maybe it won't. But trading LeBron James for Dwight Howard straight up makes the Heat more of a contender than they are today. This is a particularly viable option if the Heat believe Wade will remain a star for a few more years.
Having Howard (or perhaps even Bynum) would mean Bosh would no longer have to pretend to be a big man. Wade would no longer have to pretend he and LeBron in any way complement each other's games. And if LeBron again comes up short in the playoffs, it might be time for Pat Riley and his associates to accept LeBron is not the guy to get it done when the title is on the line.
Look, Riley's ego is tied up in the success of LeBron James, no question. Some would see it as an indictment on Riley's judgment – and perhaps legacy – if he failed to win a championship with the best player on Earth, and if it turned out the Big Three was a mistake. But it would be a bigger mistake to compound the problem by failing year after year.
So, if LeBron fails to show up, like last June, one argument would be that it's time to admit the Big Three proved only one thing: The Chosen One is no Dwyane Wade.
IT'S BEEN NICE, DWYANE. GODSPEED AND GOOD LUCK
If LeBron's success is tied to Riley's ego, it's safe to assume Wade's place with the Heat is tied to his heart.
But Riley, in many ways, has always been credited with greatness by being what many great men are: A cutthroat winner.
If you believe LeBron does not choke and that it's just bad luck, or that his immense talent will eventually surpass whatever problem he has in big moments, you build around LeBron for the long haul.
LeBron is durable and blessed with one of the great athletic builds ever, and he likely has many more years of dominance in him. Dwyane Wade may not. LeBron James is the best player on the planet. Wade is not. And LeBron, when Wade was hobbled this season by injuries, often played even better without him on the floor.
There are true point guards who can be had for Wade, and probably some big men, too. Trading him – celebrating what he did in 2006, but putting business ahead of affection – would allow Miami to turn the show over to LeBron completely.
There's a sense this would never happen, that the Heat could not part with Wade. But there's something to be said about putting all your money down on LeBron, getting whatever pieces you can for Wade and rolling the dice.
ANYBODY WANT AN OVERPAID SORT-OF SUPERSTAR?
Chris Bosh, to say the least, has not thrived with the Heat. He seems out of place, both in the locker room and on the floor, and his once bright star has somewhat dimmed.
Still, his numbers are solid, his play still capable of being excellent and his value to a team willing to build around him possibly enough to pull some valuable pieces to put around LeBron and Wade. The new labor agreement, in particular, makes it hard to surround the Big Three with the right role players, particularly with Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller not living up to expectations. Trading Bosh could fix that problem (as would, it must be said, amnestying him).
I wouldn't trade Bosh. It is, in large part, a Wade-LeBron problem if Miami fails to win the title this year. But if you can't bear to trade the best player on Earth and the one you hold most dear in your heart, Bosh is as good a scapegoat as they come. And this scapegoat might let you put the right pieces around your Big Two.
SPEAKING OF SCAPEGOATS…
Erik Spoelstra is not the best coach in the NBA, nor is he the worst.
Yes, his rotations are as baffling as trying to riddle out what's going on in Metta World Peace's head. And he clearly doesn't command respect from the Heat on the level of a Riley or Phil Jackson, though that's not to say the players dislike him or don't listen to him. If the Heat don't get it done this year, it won't be Spoelstra's fault. But he probably won't have helped, either.
He got out-coached in the Finals last year against Dallas. Regardless of whether or not that happens this postseason, he'd be a soft target if you want to make a move, but don't have the stomach for big, lasting changes.
He's young. He doesn't have the experience, resume and gravitas – and really, few do – to manage egos and talent the likes of LeBron James and Co. And as much as he's Riley's creature and creation – and by all accounts close to the great man – someone has to take the blame if the Heat go 0-2 in the Big Three's first two title runs.
What happens in the playoffs, and what's going on behind the scenes with the Heat, would be the key factors in figuring out which way is the right way to go. Is LeBron James a huge cancer his organization covers for because of his talent, or has he matured into a great leader too few give him credit for? Was Wade simply injured a lot this year because it happens, or were his absences and diminished numbers the start of a broader decline? Does anyone believe Bosh can still be a key part of a title team? Would another failed run mean Spoelstra has lost the locker room and a new coach is all that's needed?
Whatever the case, this is certain: If the Miami Heat can't win it all with the Big Three now, it's time for a new plan.
You can follow Bill Reiter on Twitter or email him at foxsportsreiter@gmail.com
