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DraftKings MLB Picks For September 22

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Sep 12, 2015; Dallas, TX, USA; A general view of the DraftKings sign board during the match with FC Dallas playing against New York City FC at Toyota Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

DraftKings MLB Picks For September 22

The DraftKings main tournament has ten games going tonight. There are only two pitchers that cost over $10,000 on DraftKings. Are they both worth using? Are either one worth using? There is only a small middle tier as well, with four pitchers between $7,200 and $9,500. Are the best bets in there? Let’s take a look at the past stats to find out.

NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

For you first time players, if you would like $20 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $20 into more!

Sep 4, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets pitcher Seth Lugo (67) delivers a pitch during the first inning of the game against the Washington Nationals at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Seth Lugo has never faced the Phillies. He has put up a stellar 2.35 ERA in nine relief appearances and six starts for the Mets. He has only given up nine runs in his six starts. This looks like a great place to use Lugo once again. Keep in mind that he may be widely used though.

Ricky Nolasco has never faced most of the current Astros lineup. The ones that have faced him are 4-15 lifetime with one run and three strikeouts. His high price ($8,000) is a bit concerning. I know Houston strikes out quite a bit, but Nolasco has a 4.78 ERA for a reason. His inconsistency has been on display lately. In his last six starts, he has two scoreless outings. In the other four games, he has given up at least three runs in all of them. Use at your own risk.

Jose Urena has only faced the Braves in relief in his career. They are 9-14(.643) off of him with six RBI. Will his start against them go any better? The Braves aren’t as bad as they were earlier in the year. There is quite a bit of risk involved here, especially after Urena got tagged for seven runs in two innings in his last start against the Phillies.

Joel De La Cruz gave up a run in relief against the Marlins last week. That is the extent of his experience against them. You should likely leave both starters in this game alone.

Mike Clevinger has never faced the Royals. He also is not a threat to go past five innings in any game. He has only pitched into the sixth inning twice in eight starts, and not since August 13th. The chances of him hanging around long enough for a win are practically zero, even if he does pitch well again.

Sep 17, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) throws a pitch during the fifth inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Best Bets:

Justin Verlander ($12,400): Yes, the Twins are hitting .261 against Verlander in 234 at bats. He has also given up only four homers (all to the same player) and only 21 runs while striking out 52. Those numbers are rather pedestrian, so let’s get to the real reason why he is on here. He has given up three or fewer earned runs in every start since an eight run blow up against Cleveland on June 26th. In that 15 start stretch, Verlander has a 2.11 ERA and 116 strikeouts.

Blake Snell ($6,400): The Yankees are a respectable 12-47(.255) against Snell this year, but he has only allowed one homer and three runs to the current lineup. He has also racked up an impressive 16 strikeouts! Snell allows base runners, but he usually minimizes the damage. He has done so against the Yankees as well.

Honorable Mention:

Tyler Chatwood ($7,200): You will have to ignore the robust .274 average that the Dodgers have against him in 106 at bats for a minute. The Dodgers have only scored eight runs and struck out 20 times. The strikeouts should help minimize the damage, though I don’t blame you for fading Chatwood after what the Dodgers did to Matt Moore last night.

Christian Friedrich ($6,600): The Giants are just 8-38(.211) with a solo homer and nine strikeouts against Friedrich. He could put up numbers well beyond what you would expect from this price. However, the 4.78 ERA still means you should be cautious. There may be better options, but Friedrich has a pretty high ceiling.

Dark Horses:

Chris Tillman ($5,300): His numbers against the Red Sox are much better than David Price‘s against Baltimore. Tillman, who has had poor career numbers against most teams before this year’s breakout, bucks the trend here. The Sox are only hitting .221 against Tillman in 199 at bats with four homers, 15 RBI, and 38 strikeouts. Those are great numbers for the price, and he should be able to at worst hold his own against David Price.

Ryan Vogelsong ($4,000): The Brewers are a pathetic 8-49(.163) with just a solo home run to show for it (by Ryan Braun, who is 2-15 against Vogelsong). They have also struck out 14 times. These are elite level stats, for the lowest price you will see on a pitcher. So what’s the catch? Vogelsong has a 10.66 ERA in three September starts.

Sep 15, 2016; Detroit, MI, USA; Minnesota Twins designated hitter waits to bat in the second inning against the Detroit Tigers Joe Mauer (7) at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!.

David Price is rolling right now, but his career numbers against Baltimore are rather pedestrian. Chris Davis ($3,600) is 9-31(.290) with three walks, two homers, and five RBI against the fellow lefty. J.J. Hardy ($3,200) only has three RBI against Price, but he is 12-45(.267) with three walks and five doubles. Adam Jones ($3,800) is 15-59(.254) with two walks, five doubles, and three RBI. Manny Machado ($4,200) is 8-31(.258) with two walks, a double, three homers, and five RBI against Price. Steve Pearce ($4,000) is 7-26(.269) with a walk, a homer, and four RBI. Jonathan Schoop ($2,900) has four hits in 17 at bats with two walks, a homer, and two RBI. Matt Wieters ($2,800) is 15-54(.278) with three walks, six doubles, a homer, and four driven in. Mark Trumbo ($3,900) has hit Price well. Trumbo is 9-31(.290) with two doubles, two homers, and seven RBI.

If Ervin Santana‘s career numbers against the Tigers hold true, you should consider a few of them in your lineup tonight. Miguel Cabrera ($5,200) is only 7-27(.259), but he has six walks, a homer, and four RBI against Ervin. Ian Kinsler ($4,200) is 23-71(.324) with five walks, six doubles, a triple, three homers, and eight RBI. Victor Martinez ($3,500) is 11-35(.314) with two walks, two homers, and five RBI against Santana. Tyler Collins ($2,700) has three hits in seven at bats. All of the hits are doubles, and he has driven in three.

Adam Morgan has been bludgeoned by the Mets so far. They are hitting .394 with seven homers and 11 RBI in just 33 at bats! Asdrubal Cabrera ($4,600) has a solo homer in three at bats. Travis d’Arnaud ($2,500) also has a walk with his solo homer in three at bats. Wilmer Flores ($4,100) has two hits in five at bats. They are both home runs and he has driven in six. However, his wrist will likely keep him out of the lineup. Juan Lagares ($3,100) is 1-2 with a solo shot off of Morgan. Jose Reyes ($4,200) has a double and a solo homer in three at bats off of Morgan.

Jett Bandy ($2,800) is 2-3 with a homer and two RBI already against Mike Fiers. Kole Calhoun ($3,800) has three hits in 11 at bats with a homer and three RBI. C.J. Cron ($3,900) is 3-8 with two homers and four RBI already. Yunel Escobar ($3,400) is 3-9 against Fiers with a RBI. Mike Trout ($5,600) has three hits in ten at bats with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI. Albert Pujols ($3,800) has just one hit in ten at bats off of Fiers, but it is a home run.

Corey Dickerson ($4,300) is 2-6 with a double, a homer, and two RBI against Luis Cessa. Logan Forsythe‘s ($4,300) only hit in four at bats is a solo home run. Nick Franklin has three hits in four at bats with a homer and three RBI, but he is still nursing a hamstring injury. Evan Longoria ($4,800) is 2-6 with a double and three RBI. Brad Miller ($4,500) has two hits in seven at bats with a solo home run.

Starling Marte ($5,600) has six hits in 12 at bats with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Chase Anderson. Jordy Mercer ($3,500) has five hits in ten at bats with a double and a pair of RBI against Anderson. Gregory Polanco ($5,500) is only 4-17(.235) off of Anderson, but he has two walks, a double, two homers, and three RBI.

Three players that have hit Jason Vargas well, Yan Gomes, Micheal Brantley, and Marlon Byrd, are all out. Not to worry, there are still more stackable options in the Cleveland lineup. Coco Crisp ($4,100) is 14-47(.298) with four walks, two doubles, two homers, and five RBI against Vargas. Rajai Davis ($4,700) is 7-24(.292) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Jason Kipnis ($4,700) has seven hits in 21 at bats with two doubles and four RBI. Mike Napoli ($4,900) is 12-32(.375) with five walks, two doubles, four homers, and six RBI against Vargas. The only question is whether Vargas will be around for two Napoli at bats. He was limited to just three innings in his first start back from Tommy John Surgery.

Aug 28, 2016; Washington, DC, USA; Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) at bat during the seventh inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Look out for Joe Mauer ($3,500) today. He is 25-75 with 13 walks, five doubles, four homers (all of the ones that the Twins have hit against Justin Verlander), and 11 RBI off of Justin Verlander. Kurt Suzuki ($2,400) could be a good pick too. He is 14-42(.333) with a walk, two doubles, and five RBI against Verlander.

Gary Sanchez ($4,900) has a solo homer in two at bats against Blake Snell. Rob Refsnyder ($3,000) is 2-4 with a double and a RBI.

Dustin Pedroia ($4,500) is 13-44(.295) with three walks, three doubles, and five RBI against Chris Tillman. Jackie Bradley ($5,200) is 4-13 with a walk, a double, and a solo homer. David Ortiz ($5,700) only has seven hits in 36 at bats(.194), but he has five walks, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI against Tillman.

Nolan Arenado ($4,700) is 5-10 with a homer and four RBI against Brett Anderson. Ryan Raburn ($2,800) has just one hit in seven at bats against Anderson, but it is a home run and he has driven in five.

Andre Ethier ($3,400) is 7-18(.389) with three doubles and a RBI against Tyler Chatwood. Adrian Gonzalez ($4,000) is 6-22(.273) with three walks, a homer, and two RBI. Corey Seager ($4,700) has two hits in eight at bats with a solo homer.

Nick Markakis ($5,300) is 2-3 with a double and four RBI against Jose Urena. Matt Kemp ($4,800) and Jace Peterson ($4,000) are both 2-2 with a RBI agianst Urena.

Jon Jay ($3,100) has clobbered Jeff Samardzija. Jay is 12-30 with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Shark. Ryan Schimpf ($3,900) is 3-6 with a triple, a homer, and two RBI. Yangervis Solarte ($3,800) is 4-10 with two walks and three RBI. Hector Sanchez ($2,400) has two hits in six at bats with a homer and two RBI.

Gregor Blanco ($2,800) is 2-6 with a solo homer against Christian Friedrich.

Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball and for Week 3 in the NFL!

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