Start ‘Em
Kyle Lohse (at NY Mets, at Pittsburgh)
After posting a 2.13 ERA in his first 11 starts, Lohse has severely regressed, surrendering four or more runs in five of his past seven starts correlating to a 4.55 ERA in June and an 8.25 mark in July. However, Lohse has a 2.83 ERA on the road this season and will be aided by pitcher-friendly parks in Pittsburgh and New York. With two relatively pedestrian offenses in the Pirates and Mets, Lohse is a safe start this week.
Tim Stauffer (at Florida, at Philadelphia)
This should be a no-brainer, but Stauffer remains available in 40 percent of leagues. Undoubtedly, Stauffer’s ERA has been abetted by Petco Park, but the Padre pitcher has a respectable 3.20 ERA on the road in 2011. Although the Philadelphia lineup looks formidable on paper, the Phillies haven’t quite put it together this season, and Florida ranks 10th on the Senior Circuit in runs scored. And while Citizens Bank has a reputation as a launching pad, Sun Life Stadium is not conducive to high-scoring affairs. Implement Stauffer into your rotation this week.
Ubaldo Jimenez (vs. Atlanta, at Arizona)
Jimenez’s 4.08 ERA and 1.31 WHIP certainly don’t make the Colorado ace an enticing start against playoff-hopefuls Arizona and Atlanta. But Jimenez has nine consecutive starts of holding opponents to three runs or less, with a 2.56 ERA in that time span. Arizona is currently third in the National League in runs, yet Jimenez has historically exceled at Chase Field, owning a 2.82 ERA in seven starts in Phoenix. Swirling trade rumors shouldn’t affect Jimenez’s performance this week.
Other Start ‘Ems
Brandon Beachy (at Colorado, at Cincinnati)
Alexi Ogando (at LA Angels, vs. Toronto)
Roy Halladay (at Chicago Cubs, vs. San Diego)
Ryan Vogelsong (vs. LA Dodgers, vs Milwaukee)
Michael Pineda (at Toronto, at Boston)
Anibal Sanchez (vs. San Diego, vs. NY Mets)
Randy Wolf (at Arizona, at San Francisco)
Sit ‘Em
Jeremy Hellickson (at NY Yankees, at Kansas City)
Hellickson may be hitting somewhat of a rookie wall, allowing seven home runs in his last five starts, equating to a 4.50 ERA in those outings. A trip to Yankee Stadium, a ball yard that’s conceding the fifth-most long balls this season, won’t alleviate that issue. Kansas City may be intriguing at the end of the slate, but a matchup with the Pinstripes possesses too much potential for disaster.
Bartolo Colon (at Tampa Bay, vs. Oakland)
Colon’s last two outings have been catastrophes, giving up 13 runs (albeit five unearned) in 6.1 innings of work. While Colon has better career numbers in the second half of the season, July has not been kind, with a 4.11 ERA in 58 starts. With the Rays and Athletics on this week’s schedule, Colon has an opportunity to turn things around against two atrocious offenses, but let Colon rediscover his first-half success on your bench.
Fausto Carmona (at Minnesota, vs. Chicago White Sox)
Most would view coming off the DL as a detriment, but some time off could have allowed Carmona to clear his head of his recent woes. The Twins and White Sox are far from frightening lineups, as both offenses rank in the bottom half of the league in average and runs scored. However, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. Wait until next week to determine if Carmona is worthy of a starting role.
Other Sit ‘Ems
Barry Enright (vs. Milwaukee, vs. Colorado)
Brett Cecil (vs. Seattle, at Texas)
Josh Collmenter (vs. Milwaukee, vs. Colorado)
Jason Hammel (vs. Atlanta, at Arizona)
Brad Bergesen (vs. Boston, vs. LA Angels)
Rodrigo Lopez (vs. Philadelphia, vs. Houston)
Rick Porcello (vs. Oakland, at Minnesota)
Clay Hensley (at NY Mets, vs. NY Mets)
Jordan Lyles (vs. Washington, at Chicago Cubs)
Use Caution
James McDonald (vs. Cincinnati, vs. St. Louis)
McDonald has quietly become one of the more reliable starters in baseball, submitting 10 straight appearances with three runs or less. McDonald has especially been effective at home, possessing a 3.18 ERA at PNC Park compared to a 5.79 figure on the road. Unfortunately, divisional foes Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are first and second in the National League in runs. McDonald is likely to get hit in one of those contests, so be wary of inserting him into locked leagues this week.
A.J. Burnett (at Tampa Bay, vs. Oakland)
For all the criticism surrounding Burnett, the Yankee right-hander has held opponents to four runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts. Granted, that’s not the greatest barometers of encouragement, but the potent New York offense will score enough to keep Burnett in most games. Burnett also provides an ample amount of strikeouts, and his 1.25 WHIP suggests his ERA should be lower. On the other hand, Burnett’s .242 WHIP indicates his ERA and WHIP could be ready to rise. Tampa and Oakland aren’t the most arduous of tasks, but don’t be surprised if Burnett burns out.
Dontrelle Willis (at Pittsburgh, vs. Atlanta)
Making his first start in over a year, Willis posted a solid performance in his debut with the Reds against Milwaukee last week, holding the Brew Crew to two runs in six innings. Perhaps this wasn’t the most surprising of results, as Milwaukee may not have been accustomed to Willis’ unique delivery. This sentiment could carry over to Pittsburgh this week, but expect Atlanta to be prepared against Willis in his scheduled start on Sunday. Atlanta and Pittsburgh do fall in the bottom half of runs scored in the National League.
Other Cautionary Starters
Derek Lowe (at Colorado, at Cincinnati)
Chad Billingsley (at San Francisco, vs. Washington)
Tim Wakefield (at Baltimore, vs. Seattle)
Jason Marquis (at Houston, at LA Dodgers)
Alex Cobb (at NY Yankees, at Kansas City)
Dillon Gee (vs. St. Louis, at Florida)
Tyler Chatwood (vs. Texas, at Baltimore)
Anthony Swarzak (vs. Cleveland, vs. Detroit)
Chris Capuano (vs. Florida, at Florida)
Yovani Gallardo (at Arizona, at San Francisco)
