The last two weeks I have been looking back at the past three NFL Drafts and writing a series of stories regarding my findings for Scout.com.Simply, I wanted to find out where the NFL Draft picks are coming from.
Now it’s time to wrap up this exercise. Here, I will breakdown the high school numbers of prospects signing with Division 1 programs in college. How do these findings compare with what I found while looking at the draft last week?
With the help of our Director of Recruiting, Scott Kennedy, I broke down the numbers from the last eight recruiting classes (2007-2014). Over that time, there have been 19,842 recruits that signed with D1 schools. As you would imagine Texas, California, Florida, Georgia and Ohio were the top five state producers. They absolutely dominated the numbers, accounting for 51.7% of all D1 signees since 2007. These same five states produced 47.3% of all draft picks in years 2012, 2013 and 2014.
The top state producing leader was Texas. Over the eight seasons researched the Lone Star State averaged 377 signees per year with a high of 405 this past February. Over that time period Texas totaled 3,016 kids that signed with D1 schools.
Florida was No. 2, averaging 333, with a high of 372, which also happened to be the class of 2014. Over the last eight years the Sunshine State has produced 2,664 D1 signees. California is a steady No. 3, averaging 247.6 per year and a total of 1,981 signees since 2007. Their numbers can best be described as flat over that time period.
Georgia came in at a strong No. 4. The Peach State totaled 1,354 signees while averaging 169.3 per class over the eight years. Georgia was the only state that showed any resemblance of year over year growth from 2007 through 2014. Georgia declined one year (2012) and that was only by a number of three [recruits] from their 2011 number of 175. This state had 130 signees in 2007 and 214 this past season. But the state also recently got a boost because Georgia State and Georgia Southern are now both part of the Sun Belt Conference.
Rounding out the top five is the Buckeye State. Ohio averaged 155.1 signees each season with a grand total of 1,241. They were pretty steady numbers, with a low of 144 and a 168.
So how do these numbers compare to the numbers I found from the last three NFL Drafts reported last week? In this story I showed you what states produced the most NFL Drafts picks over the last three years. It’s the same teams but a different order. Florida had the most draftees, followed by Texas. Here, Texas had the most signees, followed by Florida. California, Georgia and Ohio stayed in the same order.
States producing the most draft picks from six through ten were South Carolina, Louisiana, North Carolina, Alabama and Virginia. When you look at the D1 signees over the past eight years, South Carolina is not even in the top ten. Virginia isn’t either. The numbers look more old school, with states like Pennsylvania and Illinois regarding recruiting. They are in the top ten in terms of signees in college and but not in the top ten when you make the conversion to the NFL with draft picks.
If you compare the regional numbers or percentages between the number of signees over the last eight years and the number of draft picks over the past three, they are almost identical. In each, the South leads the way. 36.25% of all Division 1 signees come from the Southern state since 2007. 36.57% of all draft picks in 2012, 2013 and 2014 played their high school football in the South. 20.7 % of the entire U.S. population resides in the South.
The No. 2 region in Division 1 signees is the Midlands. Their percentage of signees over the past eight years is 19.01%. Their percentage of draft picks over the last three years is 15.47%.
The No. 3 region in terms of signees over this time is the West. Their percentage is 17.33% for signees and 18.35% for draftees.
The Midwest is No. 4, with a 15.5% of signees. By comparison, the Midwest produced 13.37 of the draft picks.
Rounding up the list for signees is the East region. Their percentage is 11.67%. The East did better with their draftees over the last three years with a percentage of 14.02%.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the United States currently has a population of 317 million. The top five states in this exercise, Florida, California, Texas, Georgia and Ohio, have a combined population of 106.22 million, which corresponds to 33.5% of the population.
So if you look at the draftees based on population and per capita numbers, the big board looks different.
Once again, there is a surprise at the top when looking at per capita and what state produces the most Division 1 signees over the past eight seasons.
Finishing No. 1 is Alabama. With a population of 4.8 million they finished with a per capita score of 18.96. You get this number by dividing their average number of Division 1 signees (91) by their population total. They narrowly edge out Louisiana for the top ranking. The Bayou State, with a population of 4.64 million, had a per capita score of 18.28.
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