There will be plenty on the line when No. 8 Clemson hosts Georgia Tech on Thursday; and there's still much to learn about both clubs.
For September and early October, Clemson (8-1, 6-1 in ACC play) looked like the team to beat during conference action, overcoming shaky moments early to stay undefeated — before running into the buzzsaw that is Florida State and getting demolished at home, 51-14.
Clemson has had time to regroup, beating Maryland 40-27 and then destroying Virginia 59-14 — both on the road.
But the Tigers continue to look vulnerable in some key areas:
Quarterback Tajh Boyd has been under constant pressure, due to an inconsistent offensive line, and the Tigers desperately miss dynamic tailback Andre Ellington (now with the NFL's Arizona Cardinals).
Bottom line: Clemson needs to win Thursday to have any shot at an at-large BCS bid.
"There aren’t many teams that started in the top 10 that are still in the top 10 and that have stayed in the top 10," Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney said. "Our team has hung in there and had a really good season to this point. We're going to be judged how we finish. That’s what November is all about. You have to finish strong and put your best foot forward."
Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has been an annual Coastal Division contender. But it looked like the Yellow Jackets were out of the race completely, after dropping consecutive games to Virginia Tech and Miami.
Now, both the Hokies and Hurricanes have two ACC losses, just like Georgia Tech (6-3, 5-2 in ACC), and there's still a chance for the Jackets to sneak up and claim the division crown.
But who is this Georgia Tech team?
The Jackets have been streaky, winning three to start the season, dropping three in a row and then winning their last three. Georgia Tech has an explosive offensive but cannot get out of its own way when it comes to ball security. The defense has looked much better over the last few weeks, but the competition level hasn’t exactly been stellar.
This series, however, has a history that goes deeper than that.
Georgia Tech leads the all-time series with Clemson 50-26-2 and has won five of the last seven meetings (and seven of 10). But it's been closer than that. In fact, from 1996-2001, every game in the series was decided by exactly three points.
Head coach Paul Johnson is 4-2 against Clemson, but the first three meetings during his tenure — all Georgia Tech wins — were games decided by a combined 12 points.
The last two meetings were decided by double digits — an unranked Georgia Tech team beating No. 6 Clemson team by 14 at home (2011) and the Tigers outlasting the Jackets 47-31 at Death Valley. The latter game was still close early in the fourth quarter.
"They're our cross (division) rival in the ACC, so we've played them every year. ... It's just been good games. Last year up there, I don't think the score was indicative of the game. I think it got away from us, but we were up one in the fourth quarter and had the ball on the 12-yard line on 4th and 1 and we fumbled the snap," Johnson recalled. "So they've been good games. This may be the best team (Clemson has) had since I've been here."
Thursday's matchup will likely test Clemson's inconsistent defense. Georgia Tech's offense forces defenders to make 1-on-1 tackles.
On the flip side, Clemson's offense will surely test Georgia Tech's improving defense.
At the very least, this game will provide some clarity with both teams, along with the Coastal race, in general.
Speaking of which ...
COASTAL DIVISION SCENARIOS
Every year, seemingly, the Coastal is an absolute mess. And this year is no different.
The only team out of the race, technically, is Virginia (0-6). This weekend will most likely eliminate either North Carolina or Pitt, as well.
At least we can clear up some of the tiebreaker scenarios. If just two teams are tied, then head-to-head claims the first tiebreaker.
If three or more are tied, the ultimate tiebreaker rewards head-to-head winning percentage.
And that likely puts North Carolina out, since the Tar Heels currently have no wins over Coastal opponents, with just Pitt and Duke left.
Georgia Tech, for example, has three Coastal victories. But "likely" is the operative word here.
Here's how a Georgia Tech win or loss clears up the divisional picture:
If Georgia Tech wins...
**The three-loss Coastal teams — North Carolina and Pittsburgh — are officially out of the race. Duke would be out as well, since the Blue Devils wouldn't own any tiebreaker scenarios over the Yellow Jackets.
**Miami would need to win its final three games and then hope for a Virginia Tech loss. A tiebreaker with Georgia Tech, citing head-to-head, would give Miami the title.
**Virginia Tech would need only to win out against Maryland and Virginia to take the division. Even if Miami runs the table, the three-team tiebreaker — head-to-head among the tied teams — would give it to Virginia Tech (which beat Georgia Tech and Miami).
**Georgia Tech would need Virginia Tech to lose a game. The Yellow Jackets would win a tiebreaker with Miami, but a three-way tiebreaker including Virginia Tech leaves the Jackets out.
If Georgia Tech loses...
**At 3-2 in the league, Duke would control its own destiny: Win out, go to Charlotte for the ACC title game.
The Blue Devils would have just two losses at that point and a head-to-head tiebreaker with Virginia Tech, which could also win out and post a 6-2 league mark. At that point, no other team could own a 6-2 ACC record.
(Miami is 3-2 right now, with the Duke showdown looming on Saturday.)
**If Miami wins out — including beating Duke — it could win the Coastal outright without a tiebreaker, IF Virginia Tech drops one of its final two games. The Hokies would win almost any conceivable tiebreaker left involving Miami.
**Virginia Tech likely has the easiest road. Of the two-loss teams, it has the head-to-head edge with everyone, except Duke.
So, Virginia Tech needs Duke (Miami, @ Wake Forest, @ North Carolina) to lose Saturday and then win out after that. The Hokies have Maryland and Virginia remaining.
**The winner of the UNC-Pitt game would need quite a few teams to drop a game or two.
It's still technically possible, as everyone in the Coastal has at least two games left except Georgia Tech. But the Tar Heels and Panthers are both long shots to take the division over the next few weeks.
