National Football League

All-Purpose Playbook: Week 6 NFL survivor pool analysis, fantasy picks and more

Published Oct. 9, 2014 4:00 p.m. ET

Brett Smiley

Welcome to the All-Purpose Playbook, a Buzzer column that is (1) either a guide to many things NFL and wagering, such as survivor pools and teasers and fantasy football or (2) a road map to hell. Check back here on Thursdays for more football picks, a smattering of GIFs and some nonsense.

Hit me up on Twitter @brettsmiley, and you can e-mail me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.

Because sometimes it takes a little magic to survive.

Last week I pointed to the New Orleans Saints as a top survivor option. Gulp.

When New Orleans fell behind by 31-20 in the fourth quarter, without Jimmy Graham who left the game in the second quarter with a shoulder injury, I began thinking about writing an obituary for this survivor pool analysis section.

"The dream is dead," I texted my brother. "Shoot me."

The Saints scored four minutes later but failed to convert on the two-point conversion, leaving an awkward five-point gap that would require them to score another touchdown, barring a Tampa Bay offensive implosion.

Well, on a drive beginning on their 20-yard line, it happened. Just your typical offensive sequence: holding penalty, fumble and recovery for a loss of eight yards, delay of game penalty, false start penalty, a rush for no gain ... sack for safety!?! Wow. Has that happened before in the NFL on one set of downs, even in a different order?!?

You know the rest -- the Saints sent the game to overtime with a field goal, won the OT coin toss, elected to receive and sealed the deal with a 80-yard touchdown drive capped by a 18-yard scamper by Khiry Robinson.

Survivors out there have reached Week 6 probably a bit bruised, bloodied and agonized, but above all, alive. Probably about half of the original poolsters or less remain. Because everyone has gotten here a bit differently, and because a half-dozen-plus teams have attracted survivor pool attention this week, I'm going to tick through them all.

And, since Halloween is near and some of these options are downright terrifying, let's look at the games through the lens of popular horror movies.

This week’s movie theme had nothing to do with Geno Smith’s moronic decision to hit a San Diego cineplex Saturday before game day, causing him to miss a team meeting because he got his time zones mixed up, or so goes his explanation.

"I just counted down instead of counting up and just got the times mixed up," Smith said," so I guess you could say I was thinking I was on East Coast time when we were actually on West Coast time."

Poor judgment, abnormal behavior. There’s a new job in the New York Jets organization -- Geno Smith’s babysitter.

A lot of sharp bettors liked Jets to cover a 6.5-point spread at the Chargers, but normally a team has to score to cover a spread. Michael Vick completed 8 of 19 passes for 47 yards in relief in the 31-0 shutout loss, and now Rex Ryan is back to Geno at home against the Broncos juggernaut (Vick may or may not be prepared to fill in.)

Normally you don’t want to take a West Coast team flying East, but the Broncos and Jets isn’t your normal match-up. The Jets secondary has no answer for the multitude of Broncos offensive weapons. Roughly 30-percent of FOX and Yahoo! poolsters will be riding with the Broncos.

The game will take place at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

Actually I don’t think it’ll be a massacre, though that wouldn’t surprise me. The Cowboys offensive line has vastly improved and the defense has exceeded expectations, but they’ve played a relatively soft schedule thus far and I think they’re due for a beating in front of a Seahawks crowd that gets its first home game since the Week 3 overtime win over the Broncos.

DeMarco Murray ran wild once again last week against the Texans but the Cowboys managed only 17 points in regulation. That won’t cut it against Seattle. About 12-percent of poolsters will look to survive with Seattle, and I think it’s a pretty good bet.

The Raiders are the oldest team in the league. Also, figuratively, they’re dead.

They’re at the bottom of a very competitive division and missed the playoffs before the season began. The corpse of late owner Al Davis drove the team into oblivion for years and now they’re among the two or three teams likeliest to get boarded onto a moving truck for Los Angeles. Head coach Dennis Allen was fired after the team got decimated in London two weeks ago.

Now Tony Sparano takes over, and he’ll probably have the silver and black fired up, and they just might turn in an inspired performance. This Chargers team is pretty darn good even with its many injuries, but it’s usually prudent to avoid taking a team facing a divisional opponent on the road. Many people already took the Chargers over the Jaguars in Week 4 but about 8-percent of poolsters will fire up the Bolts bullet this week. You may do well to avoid this game.

Last Sunday, the Titans dropped to 1-4 after blowing a 28-3 lead over the Browns, the largest comeback by a road team in NFL history. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt tried to muster something positive from the meltdown, coming up with this: "There were some good things that we did,” before adding that the good “seems pale to when you lose a game like that. It makes it very difficult.”

No, they don’t seem to pale -- they just do. To make matters worse, the Titans lost veteran safety Bernard Pollard to a torn achilles. Quarterback Jake Locker left the game in the second quarter after injuring his thumb and as of Wednesday his status for Sunday is uncertain.

The Jaguars (0-5) are living their own nightmare. Arguing in favor of taking Tennessee this week in a shared entry, my buddy Hutch said, “At SOME point we're gonna have to take crappy teams to win.”

Charlie Whitehurst may be beautiful, but I just refuse to take a crappy team and a backup quarterback until I absolutely have no other choice. I’m a firm believer that you have to survive to advance and don’t “save a team” for later; things change and injuries happen.

Before taking the Titans, ask yourself, on a scale from 1 to unmitigated Woody Allen self-loathing, how much would you hate yourself if you pinned your stock (which has taken work to get this far!) on a 1-4 squad starting the inexperienced Whitehurst?

These Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton-led Bengals will never win one. They’ve consistently crumbled in the playoffs and in prime time opportunities. The betting public hammered the Bengals until they became a favorite on the road at the Patriots last Sunday night when they desperately needed a win. Dropped balls, penalties, the inability to stop the run or convert on third down (0 for 7), and general shrinkage plagued the Bungles in a 43-17 blowout loss.

Now it looks like the Bengals will miss Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Green for multiple games with a toe injury. On the flip side, Cincinnati will get back Pro Bowl linebacker Vontaze Burfict (concussion), who will help them slow down dominant Panthers tight end Greg Olsen. The Panthers showed a lot of heart last week coming back from a 21-7 hole to the Bears but I think Cincy rebounds from last week’s embarrassment and topples Carolina. About 8-percent of poolsters feel the same.

I saw this movie for the first at a birthday/slumber party in 1992 when I was 10 years old. It freaked me out. For the ensuing two years, I felt compelled to sprint up the stairs at my house if I was leaving my basement, because the people living under the stairs wanted to dismember me and I needed to outrun them. (That's a lie -- it was more like eight years until I went to college)

Anyhow, people under the stairs may not tank your survivor pool entry, but people under Carson Palmer might. Palmer has been out since Week 1 with a DEAD nerve in his throwing shoulder and may return this week at less than 100-percent. Meanwhile backup Cardinals QB Drew Stanton was knocked out of last week’s game at Denver, and he’s yet to clear concussion protocol as of Wednesday.

The double-secret backup quarterback is rookie Logan Thomas who made his NFL debut at Mile High Stadium, trailing the Denver Broncos by 11. Thomas looked overwhelmed, at best, though he did manage to squeeze 1 of his 8 passes through a window to Andre Ellington who broke it for a 81-yard touchdown run.

Far as I know, the Cardinals’ emergency quarterback is either Kurt Warner or Tyrann Mathieu in some Wildcat “Honey Badger” spinoff.

A longer way of saying -- maybe their best course would be to look elsewhere. Though they apparently weren’t despondent after the Monday Night Football loss to the Seahawks, Washington played pretty well and DeSean Jackson showed once again that he’s a threat to find the end zone and swing momentum any time he touches the ball.

Also disheartening -- the Cardinals secondary showed some cracks last week, plus they lost monster defensive lineman Calais Campbell on an illegal cut block.

Will the Harbaugh and Kaepernick-era San Francisco 49ers exorcise their playoffs demons this year? I don’t know, I just needed to make sure there was a semi-logical place for that nightmarish upside-down "Exorcist" crawl GIF.

The Niners have scrapped their way to 3-2 after two hard-fought home wins over the Eagles and Chiefs, both games it looked like they might drop.

Bottom line here: this is a divisional game, the Rams are hosting, and St. Louis has always played San Fran tough. You all have better options.

Tell me in the comments or on Twitter who you’re taking and why. I’m curious which way you guys and gals are going.

Went 1-1 last week bringing season total to 5-2. Chiefs +6.5 covered by hopes for the Cardinals +7.5 at Denver pretty much ended when Stanton went down.

Let’s go back to those Rams who are getting 3.5 points Monday night at home against the 49ers.

The Rams and quarterback Austin Davis showed some pluck in Philadelphia last week, rallying the team from a whopping 34-7 hole late in the third quarter to a narrow 34-28 defeat. The Rams offense came to life and I think they’ll be up for the challenge on national television.

Who knows what exactly the atmosphere is like inside the 49ers locker room but it sure sounds like the Harbaugh-49ers marriage is less like Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner and more like Donald and Shelly Sterling. In that scenario, I guess V. Stiviano is the Cleveland Browns.

Total on the Seahawks-Cowboys contest is 47 right now. Figure 27-20, 24-23, 31-14? Something like that?

I think this is a run-heavy, clock-draining game. Both Tony Romo and Russell Wilson are completing 70-percent of their passes. Both teams are only middle of the pack in red zone scoring, so let’s root for field goals, long drives and avoid a dreaded special teams touchdown.

Pick is: Under 47. (Total bets this year are 1-0)

TNT Skit from Aaron Gibbs on Vimeo.

Last week the teasers fell to 2-3 thanks to the Cardinals meltdown. I had KC +13 and Arizona +14.5 but had to write it off as a loss when Drew Stanton got knocked out.

Anyhow, I’m taking a week off from the teaser bets.

That’s a lie, actually. I just need more time to reflect on one this week. I’ll post it to Twitter Sunday morning if you, too, are a glutton for punishment.

In which I suggest some non-obvious plays. Last week I suggested starting Eli Manning (200 yards passing, 2 touchdowns ), Allen Hurns (a terrible 4 catches on 11 targets for 26 yards), Ahmad Bradshaw (15 carries, 68 yards and 4 catches for 17 yards) and sitting Brandin Cooks (9 catches but only 56 yards) and Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley (BIG WHIFF -- Vereen rushed 9 times for 90 yards plus a few catches and Ridley carried 27 times for 113 yards and a score. Yikes.)

Start: Ronnie Hillman (RB, Broncos) -- Raise your hand if you were (1) own Montee Ball and/or (2) own a RB-starved team and blew your FAAB budget for Hillman.

Reports indicate that Hillman is in line for 50-55 percent of running back carries against a pretty good Jets run defense this Sunday. The currency for running backs is carries and targets, so go ahead and plug him in at RB2 or Flex and cross your fingers.

Sit: Sammy Watkins (WR, Bills): Watkins will be shadowed by Darrelle Revis on Sunday, an unenviable place for a wide receiver, even if he’s not the Revis of seasons past. Watkins has gotten plenty of targets to date but the Bills may go rush-heavy against a Patriots defense that’s been only average against the run.

Start: Luke Willson (TE, Seahawks): That’s Willson with two L’s - the tight end, not the actor. The Cowboys have struggled badly to contain opposing tight ends this season, allowing 39 catches for 406 yards and six touchdowns this season. With Zach Miller sidelined with an ankle injury, give Willson a shot this weekend if you don’t have an every-week-starter type of guy.

Sit: Zac Stacy (RB, Rams): Stacy strained his calf against the Eagles on Sunday and will miss some practice this week but should play Monday against the 49ers, a pretty stingy rushing defense. If you have another option, take it. Stacy has averaged only 13 carries and a couple receptions per game. Maybe… Jaguars running back Storm Johnson? Why not!?!

Hit me up on Twitter @brettsmiley, and you can e-mail me with any questions or comments at basmiley [at] gmail [dot] com.