In light of recent comments by Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. that his team would be better off without Ryan Howard, it's natural to wonder if there's any market for the 35-year-old's services.
I'll say this: There should be interest in Howard from several teams, particularly in the American League.
Howard has been in decline for so long that his harshest critics would have you believe he's forgotten how to play. That's simply not the case. He hit 23 home runs this year (his most since 2011) while playing in 153 games (his most since 2009).
In fact, only 16 other major leaguers hit at least 23 home runs this year while appearing in 153 or more games. So, on average, only about half of all big-league teams had a power hitter as productive and durable -- yes, durable -- as Ryan Howard in 2014.
With Howard, of course, it's about the money: He's owed $25 million in each of the next two seasons, followed by a $10 million buyout of his 2017 option. So, the bill is $60 million. The Phillies would need to eat the vast majority of that in order to trade Howard.
But how much, exactly, should the Phillies need to pay? Consider the recent performance of designated hitter/first baseman Kendrys Morales, who (as a free agent) recently signed a two-year, $17 million contract with the Kansas City Royals.
Over the past three years, here were Morales' numbers: 388 G, 53 HR, 195 RBI, 107 BB, 298 SO, .742 OPS, 110 OPS+.
Here's what Howard did over the same period: 304 G, 48 HR, 194 RBI, 115 BB, 384 SO, .720 OPS, 98 OPS+.
So, Morales has been better. He's also younger. But he's similar to Howard in body type, injury risk and overall profile as a DH. And if Morales is worth $17 million over two years, then wouldn't Howard be in line for one year at about $10 million if he were a free agent right now?
If that's the case, then the magic number for the Phillies would be near $50 million to make everything square. A number of AL teams -- the Orioles, Rangers and Rays come to mind -- don't have a full-time designated hitter and would have use for someone who can deliver 20-plus homers in a power-starved sport.
After all, six AL teams -- the Rangers, Yankees, Rays, A's, Mariners and Royals -- produced fewer than Howard's 23 home runs from their DH spot in 2014.
Amaro probably is right when he says the Phillies are better off without Howard. They aren't going to compete for a playoff berth in 2015, and they need to find out if Darin Ruf is an everyday first baseman. But a few AL clubs should give Howard -- and their own rosters -- a second look before dismissing him.
