National Football League

5 things to watch: Packers vs. Lions

Published Dec. 27, 2014 1:01 p.m. ET

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GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Five things to watch for in the Week 17 Sunday afternoon matchup when the Green Bay Packers (11-4) face the Detroit Lions (11-4) at Lambeau Field:

The outcome of this game has significant ramifications for both teams.

Here's a look at the playoff scenarios for the Packers:

In the scenario in which Green Bay loses and plays the Cowboys on the road in the postseason, a Packers win at Dallas would then send them to Seattle for a divisional round matchup. Even if Green Bay was to pull off those two victories, it still would be another road victory away from reaching the Super Bowl. That is about as difficult a journey as any team could possibly face.

A Packers win over Detroit also would give Green Bay its fourth consecutive NFC North title. The Lions haven't won the division since 1993.

There's also the matter of Dec. 15, 1991. That's the last time the Packers lost to Detroit in the state of Wisconsin. Rookies like Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Davante Adams weren't even born yet. In that span, Green Bay has outscored the Lions 631-346 at home. That's more than two decades of complete dominance.

It's been more than two full years since Aaron Rodgers threw an interception at Lambeau Field. Since getting picked off by Vikings safety Harrison Smith on Dec. 2, 2012, Rodgers has thrown 396 passes at home. Not one has been intercepted.

If that incredibly impressive run is going to end, it would make sense for this Detroit defense to do it. The Lions have had at least one interception in the past 12 games and are tied for second in the NFL with 20 interceptions. That includes picking off Tom Brady in New England, where the Patriots star has thrown only three interceptions all year.

Rodgers' mobility could be tested if his injured right calf gives him any trouble. Detroit has gotten consistent pressure on quarterbacks this season, ranking sixth in the NFL in sacks. Rodgers will need to be able to escape the pocket at least a few times. If the Lions are getting to him, there's a chance Rodgers could uncharacteristically throw a bad pass that the ball-hawking Lions secondary could step in front of.

Detroit boasts the NFL's best run defense. The Lions have allowed 63.8 rushing yards per game, while the next-best team (Denver) has given up 80.6. Detroit has allowed 3.1 yards per carry, with the second-best team (Seattle) giving up 3.5. It obviously came to a point that opposing offenses decided just not to test the Lions' run-stopping ability, as Detroit has the fewest rushing attempts against it in the league.

When asked this week whether the Packers have to stick with the run whether it's working or not, Rodgers responded, "Well, you do, but not many people have. They haven't had a team rush, I don't think, for 30 attempts all season on them. People have been trying to throw it on them. People are averaging close to 40 attempts passing the ball per game and in the mid-20s running it. It's tough to move the ball on this team, because they're so stout up front. You just know it's going to be a game where you have to be very efficient throwing the ball, and you have to look for those opportunities for extended plays in the run game and the pass game."

Running back Eddie Lacy overcame a slow start to become a big factor in Green Bay's offense. He's carried the ball an average of 18.2 times over the past five games and is picking up 5.4 yards per carry in that stretch.

When these teams met in Week 3, the Lions won this battle. Lacy had 11 carries for 36 yards (3.3 average) and had a fumble returned 40 yards for a touchdown.

It will be interesting to see how much coach Mike McCarthy goes to Lacy early in the game and whether the offense sticks with it if it's not working.

Lineman Mike Daniels didn't quite understand the question this week when asked by a reporter whether Green Bay's defense is for real. Well, in the past two weeks, the Packers have gone from being the NFL's 26th-ranked defense (in total yards allowed) to 12th. That's a huge climb in such a short period of time. However, the opposing offenses that have played their part in that turnaround, Buffalo and Tampa Bay, are two of the worst in the league. The Buccaneers are ranked second to last in total yards, while the Bills are 24th.

If Green Bay's defense is for real, it will need a strong performance Sunday.

Considering the weapons that Detroit has on offense, the Lions have been a surprisingly low-scoring team: 23rd in points and 18th in yards. Still, Detroit poses a much bigger challenge than Buffalo or Tampa Bay.

The Packers didn't allow a touchdown against either the Bills or Buccaneers. Green Bay's defense gave up only one touchdown in the first meeting against the Lions and played well enough to win. Another strong performance by the Packers defense would go a long way in proving it can get the job done.

Some might say that Green Bay's defense has a slight advantage in its preparation for facing Calvin Johnson, compared to a team that sees Detroit only every couple of years. Packers cornerbacks coach Joe Whitt does not agree with that theory.

"No, there's no advantage at all," Whitt said. "There's none. He is a special, special talent. If he is on, there's nothing you can do about it. A couple years ago when they were here and he had that big game, we actually had him doubled a lot. With Julio (Jones in Week 14), Julio caught the ball on break points. Not trying to take anything away from him, but we were in zones, we were doing other things. This guy (Johnson), he just beat us. We were trying to take him out, especially late.

"When he's on, I don't know how many times I've seen this guy go up and try to go get a ball, and there's two or three guys in great position, and he just goes and gets it. He's special. I like him; before the game he always comes out and hits me, and I'm like, 'Oh, my goodness, I have to deal with this big guy for 60 minutes.' He's a great guy, but I would rather not play him."

The NFL is loaded with incredible wide receivers. Johnson stays at the top of the list, though, because he's elite in every area.

"He's 6-5 -- I know there are more 6-5 guys out there," Whitt said. "He's 4.3 (40-yard dash speed) -- there's other 4.3 guys out there. He has a huge catch radius -- there's guys that have that. He has a 40-something-inch vertical -- there's some guys that have 40-inch verticals.

"But he's the only person that has all of it."

In the Week 3 meeting, Johnson had six catches for 82 yards. In 2013, Johnson had six catches for 101 yards with one touchdown in Detroit. Johnson was injured the last time the Lions were at Lambeau Field, but in 2012 he had 10 receptions for 118 yards. In the 2011 regular-season finale, Johnson put up 11 catches for 244 yards and a touchdown.

"We've had some good games against him," Whitt said. "There's a combination of things. The quarterback has to get him the ball. The line has to block for the quarterback. Those things definitely fall into it. I remember some days Wood (Charles Woodson) covered him really, really well. Tramon (Williams) covered him, and we weren't helping him (in 2012) and Tramon had a great game against him, and he wasn't getting any help because they ran the ball early. We took the double off of him and put the other guy in the box. He was singled up for the rest of the second half. He had a great game on him.

"If he's on, it's hard. If he's on and the quarterback can get him the ball, it's hard."

That's how big of a factor Johnson is every time he steps on the field.

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