Many consider the Washington Nationals frontrunners for the World Series. If that's the case, this season's National League East will be a battle for second.
But Major League Baseball follows a 162-game regular season with playoffs for a reason.
In 2014, just one club in the division (the Nationals) finished with a record above .500. Pitcher injuries and an anemic offense haunted the Atlanta Braves, while the Philadelphia Phillies continued to get older. The New York Mets and Miami Marlins showed progress with young talent.
This year, those organizations hope to challenge for a wild-card spot -- perhaps even shock the Nationals -- should they somehow falter. Both the Phillies and Braves are in the rebuilding stage.
Here's how the NL East breaks down (in alphabetical order, with last year's finish in parentheses):
ATLANTA BRAVES (79-83, 2nd)
Key Additions: INF Alberto Callaspo, OF Jonny Gomes, RHP Jason Grilli, RHP Jim Johnson, OF Nick Markakis, RHP Shelby Miller, C A.J. Pierzynski
Key Losses: OF Jason Heyward, C Evan Gattis, LF Justin Upton, 2B Tommy La Stella, RHP Aaron Harang, RHP Ervin Santana.
Strengths: Though they're not on a Greg Maddux/Tom Glavine/John Smoltz level, Atlanta's front-end of the rotation can keep up with the best. Opening Day starter Julio Teheran (2.89 ERA) made the 2014 All-Star team, while lefty Alex Wood (2.78 ERA) bounced back from an early-season injury. Right-hander Shelby Miller (3.33 career ERA) joins the staff after three seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals. As a group, Braves pitchers posted a 3.38 ERA -- third best in the NL -- in 2014.
Weaknesses: Gone is one of the more promising outfields after the offseason trades of Gold Glover Jason Heyward and Silver Slugger Justin Upton. Veterans Nick Markakis and Jonny Gomes will take their places. Markakis is coming off neck surgery, while Gomes is hoping to rebound from a career-worst year. Melvin Upton Jr., formerly known as B.J., had the lowest average (.208) among NL center fielders with just 12 homers and 35 RBI in 141 games.
Best-case scenario: Despite a rebuild, Atlanta manages its fifth runner-up finish in the division in six years. Closer Craig Kimbrel remains unhittable, while All-Star first baseman Freddie Freeman becomes an NL MVP candidate.
Worst-case scenario: The Braves finish last in the division for the first time since moving from the NL West in 1994. Already haunted by the Tommy John surgery bug (Brandon Beachy, Kris Medlen, Shae Simmons and co.), additional members of the pitching staff fall victim to it.
MIAMI MARLINS (77-85, 4th)
Key Additions: RHP Mat Latos, RHP Dan Haren, RHP David Phelps, 1B Michael Morse, 2B Dee Gordon, 3B Martin Prado, OF Ichiro Suzuki
Key Losses: RHP Nathan Eovaldi, 1B Garrett Jones, 3B Casey McGehee
Strengths: One of the more popular debates this spring has revolved around baseball's top outfield. The Marlins believe they have the best in two-time All-Star Giancarlo Stanton, Gold Glover Christian Yelich and center fielder Marcell Ozuna. Together, they combined for 69 homers, 255 runs and 244 RBI in 2014 despite injury time for each member. Yelich and Ozuna enter just their second full big-league seasons. It's also not too shabby to have future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki as the fourth outfielder.
Weaknesses: One of the lessons learned from the 2014 World Series was the importance of the catcher. Buster Posey (San Francisco Giants) and Salvador Perez (Kansas City Royals) made an impact managing the pitching staffs and producing timely hits. Jarrod Saltalamacchia had a rough year both behind and at the plate. He committed a position-high 15 errors, while posting career lows in average (.220) and homers (11). Perhaps Salty just needs another year in the NL. Backup Jeff Mathis is superb defensively, but doesn't offer much offensively. Prospect J.T. Realmuto needs more time in the minors.
Best-case scenario: Miami remains in postseason contention throughout the summer and goes on a torrid streak when ace Jose Fernandez returns following the All-Star break. Whether via the wild card or (surprise!) division winner, the Marlins make the playoffs and do what they've done when that happens: win it all.
Worst-case scenario: A key injury or two wipes out any postseason chatter. The pitching staff can't stay consistent despite the veteran presence of Latos and Haren. The Marlins manage to finish fourth or fifth in the division for the fifth straight time year.
NEW YORK METS (79-83, 2nd)
Key Additions: OF Michael Cuddyer, LHP Sean Gilmartin, LHP Jerry Blevins, OF/1B John Mayberry Jr.
Key Losses: RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, OF Bobby Abreu, OF Eric Young Jr., RHP Gonzalez Germen
Strengths: Although veteran Bartolo Colon will start on Opening Day, the young rotation is easily a strength for the Mets. Ace Matt Harvey returns from Tommy John surgery with a 12-10 record and 2.27 ERA in 36 career starts. Prior to the injury, he was on pace to compete for the 2013 NL Cy Young. Reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom went 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA in 22 starts upon his call-up and has posted a 2.45 ERA this spring. Even with Zack Wheeler out with Tommy John surgery, the Mets have fifth-starter options with Rafael Montero (yet to make debut) and Dillon Gee (3.91 career ERA).
Weaknesses: As happy as Mets fans were with the addition of Cuddyer to the outfield, they were equally displeased with the inactivity in acquiring a shortstop. Wilmer Flores, 23, has a .251 average, 18 doubles, one triple, seven homers and 42 RBI over 105 big-league games since 2013. His backup, incumbent Ruben Tejada, is a career .254 batter with 76 doubles, one triple, seven dingers and 120 RBI in five years.
Best-case scenario: Much like the Marlins, the Mets expect to contest for second in the East behind the Nationals. But if Washington experiences unexpected bumps along the way, New York's pitching could catapult it to a playoff berth for the first time since 2006.
Worst-case scenario: Harvey suffers a setback. David Wright still can't find his power. Cuddyer can't stay healthy. Instead of battling for one of five postseason spots, the Mets fall to fourth behind the Nationals, Marlins and Braves.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (73-89, 5th)
Key Additions: RHP Aaron Harang, RHP Chad Billingsley, RHP Elvis Araujo
Key Losses: SS Jimmy Rollins, OF Marlon Byrd, RHP A.J. Burnett, LHP Antonio Bastardo, RHP Kyle Kendrick
Strengths: At 36, Chase Utley can still be considered one of the top second basemen in the NL. He played all but seven games in 2014 after injuries cost him from 2010-13. Utley batted .270 with 236 doubles, six triples, 11 homers and 78 RBI. He can be a good example of professionalism for the younger guys in the early parts of their big-league careers.
Weaknesses: After Hamels, the Phillies rotation isn't anything to write home about. It was tough losing former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee to Tommy John surgery. Harang went 12-12 with a 3.57 ERA in 33 starts with the Braves in 2014. Righty Jerome Williams is 48-54 with a 4.40 ERA in his career. He played for three organizations last season. David Buchanan, the baby of the group at 25, posted a 6-8 record and a respectable 3.75 ERA in 20 starts as a rookie. The fifth spot will likely go to righty Sean O'Sullivan.
Best-case scenario: The Phillies are able to deal Hamels and Ryan Howard for top prospects. In the latter's case, an American League team takes most of the remaining money on his contract. Third baseman Cody Asche, outfielder Ben Revere and others are able to develop in the majors. This experience will help them in the future. Observe the Marlins for reference.
Worst-case scenario: After five straight division championships from 2007-11, the Phillies finish last in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1996-97. All of the losing will make for a toxic clubhouse.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS (96-66, 1st)
Key Additions: RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Casey Janssen, 2B Yunel Escobar, 2B Dan Uggla
Key Losses: RHP Tyler Clippard, 2B Asdrubal Cabrera, LHP Ross Detwiler, 1B Adam LaRoche, RHP Rafael Soriano, OF Steven Souza Jr.
Strengths: The Nationals already had the top rotation in baseball in 2014. Starters went 70-49 with a major-league-low 3.04 ERA. All-Star Jordan Zimmermann tossed a no-hitter on Closing Day. So what did the organization do? Sign Scherzer, the 2013 American League Cy Young winner, to a seven-year, $210 million contract. The Nationals have six legitimate starters in Scherzer, Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark. Try beating them in a three-game series.
Weaknesses: Unfortunately for the Nationals, not much has changed on the injury front. Center fielder Denard Span will begin the season on the DL after undergoing core surgery, while third baseman Anthony Rendon recently went for a third opinion on his left knee. Reliever Casey Janssen is battling rotator cuff tendinitis and right fielder Jayson Werth is rehabbing from right shoulder surgery. Despite injuries to Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman and others last season, Washington still finished 30 games above .500.
Best-case scenario: For the second straight year, the Nationals cruise to an NL East title. This time, they remain relatively healthy along the way. Come October, Washington manages to advance in the postseason and reach the World Series where the club finally lives up to the hype and shows off its #Natitude in a Capital Beltway parade.
Worst-case scenario: The injuries continue to pile up, allowing the Marlins and Mets to stay within striking distance. Although the rotation holds up its end, the bullpen misses Clippard. Closer Drew Storen doesn't recapture his 2011 form (43 saves) after just 18 saves from 2012-14.
MOST DANGEROUS PLAYER
Take away a fastball to the face and Stanton may have won -- or at least made -- the NL MVP race closer. At the time, he led the league in homers (37), RBI (105), on-base percentage (.395), slugging percentage (.555) and OPS (.950). He became a finalist for a Gold Glove, wowed his peers at the Home Run Derby and won a Silver Slugger. Most importantly, Stanton started all 145 games before the Mike Fiers' pitch hit him. Miami was still on the outskirts of the wild-card picture at the time.
Fresh off the richest contract in North American sports history, Stanton wants to make this team into a winner as he has yet to sniff .500 in five seasons. His customized face mask with a G will let every pitcher know who sent the pitch into orbit this season.
BEST MANAGER
This is still to be determined. Matt Williams had to work around injuries but still had the benefit of a club 30 games above .500 in his first year with the Nationals. Though he won NL Manager of the Year from the Baseball Writers' Association of America, his club was eliminated in the National League Division Series. Mike Redmond received a two-year contract extension through 2017 last September. His underdog and never-give-up attitude have been adopted by the Marlins. He has yet, however, to play in games with postseason implications. The Mets have never been above .500 in four seasons under Terry Collins, though they tied the Braves for second in the division in 2014. Fredi Gonzalez and the Braves won the division title in 2013, but injuries set them back four games below .500 last year. His clubs underachieved in 2012-13 postseason appearances. Ryne Sandberg, the only Hall of Fame player managing in the big leagues, didn't get much help in his first full season. He is 93-111 overall.
SLEEPER
There once was a time when the Mets had to decide the future of its first-base position. Lucas Duda or Ike Davis? They went with Duda, and it paid off as he finished with 30 homers (third most in the NL) in 153 games in 2014. Prior to this breakout, he had 44 total dingers and had never played more tun 121 games in a season since 2010. Duda, 29, provides New York with a left-handed power bat in the middle of the lineup to complement Wright and Cuddyer. Will Duda continue to progress? Over five big-league seasons, he is a career .253 hitter with 85 doubles, 74 homers and 245 RBI in 503 games.
TEAM WITH ISSUES
Both Howard and Hamels are still on the Phillies roster. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. hasn't been able to deal either player for various reasons. With another last-place finish likely on the way, that clubhouse could become tense. Closer Jonathan Papelbon is also still around. He earned boos from his own fans after a crude gesture towards the end of last season when he blew a save.
FINAL THOUGHT
Like last year, Washington should cruise to another NL East crown. But with injuries mounting, the Marlins and Mets could make things interesting. Don't be surprised if Miami contends -- and perhaps sneaks into -- a playoff spot in 2015. The Braves and Phillies will look like rebuilding organizations.
You can follow Christina De Nicola on Twitter @CDeNicola13 or email her at cdenicola13@gmail.com.
