Joe Ingles: Improvements from Beyond the Arc

Is this three-point shooting virtuoso the new permanent evolution Utah Jazz wing  Joe Ingles? Or is it a temporary transformation?

Indiana Ingles and the Three-Point Arc of the Covenant is making a huge splash in the league this year. Joe was solid last season, shooting 38.6 percent from three, but so far this year he is shooting 47.6 percent! So is this real improvement or does the considerably smaller sample size play a role here?

The easy answer here is that there’s no way to know with any level of certainty, but let’s go ahead and examine the shooting of Joe Ingles (hmm, sounds ominous).

Last year, Ingles had 211 attempts on 2.6 attempts per game. With 104 shots so far this year on 2.9 attempts per game, Joe has the beginnings of a workable sample size for us to determine if he can sustain his current three-point percentage. Our friends at Nylon Calculus put in a solid piece of research that really helps fans understand when three-point production has normalized.

It does a great job of helping us determine at what point a player can sustain production when they suddenly have a career year.

Now let’s look at Ingles this season —

First 20 games: 18/42 for 42.8%
Next 16 games: 32/63 for 50.7%

And here are the last four games:

@ Toronto         0/3 for 0%

@ Minnesota   1/4 for 25%

@ Memphis      0/1 for 0%

Vs Cleveland      1/4 for 25%

So far this season, Joe has had 16 games where he shot 50 percent or higher. Before the recent four-game stretch, his percentage got better throughout the year. The majority of his 100-percent shooting games have come in the latter part of the season.

Ingles’ shooting confidence is unshakable and has been for years. He famously said Stephen Curry was the American Joe Ingles when asked if he was the Australian Steph Curry. While he is no longer the surprise leader in three-point percentage, people still expect Ingles’ percentages to crash back down to earth.

So do these last four games mean his improvement is over?

Over the last four games the crash has been real. Overall, we can’t be sure quite yet if Joseph “Indiana Slowmo” Ingles improved percentage is for real or if it’s simply a mirage. Or perhaps some kind of golden idol he retrieved only to have it snatched away after evading a massive boulder which almost crushed him.

So, in short, it looks like real improvement needs a larger sample size than what Joe has so far this year at only 117 attempts. Joe will need at least 200 attempts before this looks like an actual trend upwards and not just a fluke. For it to be proven stable, we’ll need to see something more in the neighborhood of 500 to 1000 attempts.

Consider this… Joe Ingles looks a lot like this Indiana Jones wax statue. Maybe if he’s good enough for long enough the Jazz can buy this and put it in an Ingles No. 2 jersey at the new remodeled Vivint Smart Home Arena.

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One cannot deny that Joe Ingles’ emergence as a clutch defender has been huge for this Jazz team. Let us hope the Jazz are able to retain him at a reasonable cost. Indiana Jones had three good films; we should be able to get at least as many good NBA seasons out of Joe Ingles.