NASCAR Cup Series

Where Will Bubba Wallace's Roller Coaster Of A Season Go Next?

Published Jul. 15, 2026 2:33 p.m. ET

Bubba Wallace, when asked about handling his up-and-down season, has a similar response week after week.

It goes something like: "That’s my whole life," which he told me and other reporters Saturday, a day before the Atlanta race.

A few weeks earlier at Sonoma, it was "[Dale] Junior said that’s the cards I’ve been dealt with in life, so I’ve got to figure out how to play them."

Typically, it’s one great result followed in the next week or two by a disappointing result. At Atlanta this past weekend, Wallace experienced all the feelings in a matter of moments, thinking he finished second only to be placed 29th because he went below the double line on the final lap.

In the moment, it seemed like a controversial call — did he really advance his position? He feels his move took him below the double white (not yellow at Atlanta) line, but he was on the brakes enough to show that the move didn’t advance his position. NASCAR disagreed, apparently feeling his momentum being down there at times moved him ahead of other drivers.

Bubba Wallace was hit with a devastating penalty at Atlanta.

NASCAR is always covered by the rule because the start of the rule says "Vehicles must compete above the double painted lines at all times" — so anytime a driver goes below the line, a driver can be penalized. It then goes on to talk about black flags for passing to advance the position.

The wording of the rule gives NASCAR incredible wiggle room to make a judgment call. The rule has been around for decades, and NASCAR’s interpretation can be a little fluid — more so when it comes to the leader, who technically can’t pass anyone but theoretically could "advance" position by using the apron to hold someone off.

It’s a lot of minutia, and while in the moment it seemed Wallace had a strong case, in the days that have followed, several drivers past and present have indicated it was the right call. Much like Wallace’s season, it’s a mixed review. There are races where he looks in complete control as he has three top fives and nine top-10s in 20 races. He has led in seven races for 146 laps.

But he has no wins and has six finishes of 29th or worse. He sits 13th in the standings, 55 points ahead of the current Chase cutoff. The finish at Atlanta cost him 26 points (if he had finished third).

As he talks about the hand he has been dealt with, he had a royal flush and then one of the cards changed into a suit at the end of Atlanta.

A few weeks ago at Sonoma, his co-owner Denny Hamlin expressed no doubt in Wallace, who is expected back at 23XI Racing next season. He said Wallace should be at the point of his career to handle the adversity. Not a strong road-course racer for years in NASCAR, Wallace came back from two laps down because of a loose wheel at Naval Base Coronado and finished second.

"As long as you do the best of your ability and the team does the best of theirs, yes there’s certain aspects of luck that can change your results over any given week, but over the big sample size, you’re going to get a bigger picture of where you stand," Hamlin said during a news conference at Sonoma, the week after Coronado.

"On speed, it seems that team is very capable week in, week out of being a top 5 on speed team. Execution has been a little bit of an issue. But overall, we definitely don’t question Bubba’s ability to get the most out of what that car is capable of."

In his sixth year at 23XI Racing, Wallace will hit 200 starts with the organization this weekend at North Wilkesboro. The 32-year-old Wallace has three wins, 28 top-5s and 60 top-10s for 23XI. That’s nearly a top-10 in every three races. His average finish this year is 17.05, better than last year but worse than the two previous years.

"At this point of your career, you certainly can regulate that," Hamlin said about handling the ups and downs for a driver. "It’s part of the sport and whatnot. The biggest thing is just focusing on what you can control.

"Sometimes you get caught in wrecks after a pit penalty or something, then that’s not bad luck. You just put yourself in a rally bad spot or the team put you in a bad spot. You always have to self-reflect on what you can improve and you have to be happy with the result."

And that’s been the biggest challenge for Wallace, trying to find happiness in his performance. He knows he has the tools as teammate Tyler Reddick sits second behind Hamlin and has won five races this year. Wallace’s full-time teammate for next year, Corey Heim, already has won a race this season running a partial schedule.

Wallace? No one would be surprised if he wins this weekend at North Wilkesboro. And the way his season gone, a wreck or a team-inflicted or self-inflicted mistake could put him outside the top 25.

Will he make the Chase? He should. He has shown the speed. Now it’s just managing it over the next six weeks. He thought he had done that in Atlanta, where he was spun earlier in the event and came back to be in the mix for the win.

He doesn’t seem stressed. Frustrated at times. But not stressed.

"It’s a bummer," he said in his radio interview after Atlanta. "I hate it for our guys. Nice rebound from getting spun [earlier in the race]. ... It’s another race for us."

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