Three Burning Fantasy Basketball Questions (Jan. 6)
Every week, D.J. Foster will tackle three burning questions in the Fantasy Basketball world. Topics for today: Jimmy Butler's takeover, DeMarcus Cousins's dominance and finding the next Draymond Green.
1. Should Jimmy Butler owners want Derrick Rose to stay out?
It always feels scummy to hope for an injury to any player, but Jimmy Butler owners should have their eyes light up when Derrick Rose has to sit out games completely.
Rose has been one of the worst point guards in the NBA this season. Many fans are clinging to the notion he's a superstar because he's a former MVP, but Rose has been a high-volume disaster on the floor this season. 38.6 percent shooting from the field is downright Ricky Rubio-esque, except Rose is hoisting over 15 shots a game while shooting 24.6 percent from behind the arc and getting to the line just 2.7 times a game. He's a pull-up jump shooter now almost exclusively, and he's not a very good one.
Butler is better off with virtually any other replacement level point guard who has the sense to let him do the heavy lifting. According to NBAWowy.com, when Butler is on the floor with Rose, he has a usage percentage of 22.6 compared to Rose's 24.8. Essentially, he takes a backseat to Rose offensively. But what happens when Butler plays with Rose off the floor? His usage percentage jumps all the way up to 29.5, which is more in line with the top fantasy studs.
For a player that always gives you strong rebounding and steal numbers, the increase in points and assists are more than welcome. Although it's a small sample size, we've seen what Butler can do in games where Rose is out completely, which means fantasy owners should hope that he misses time.
Take note, DFS players.
2. DeMarcus Cousins: more trouble than he's worth?
DeMarcus Cousins is my absolute favorite trade target in fantasy basketball, for a few different reasons.
Just like his coaches in real life, his antics sometimes tend to weigh on his fantasy owners -- the ejections, the foul trouble, the crazy turnovers -- it can all add up. When Cousins does something dumb, it's almost an automatic reaction for me to send out lowball trade offers for him, and it should be for you.
Even though Cousins hasn't brought back enough value on the first-round pick it almost certainly took to get him in roto leagues, he's once again been a points league monster. His 74.4 percent free throw shooting on a career-high 9.8 attempts per game isn't ideal, and the 3.2 turnovers per game from a non-guard hurt as well.
The reason for optimism? Big Cuz has a new weapon that could seperate him from most of the 20-10 threats around the league, save for the evolved frontcourt of the Atlanta Hawks. This season Cousins is adding 1.1 threes a game, and you would think his 30.9 percentage on those shots will only increase as he uses it with more fequency.
You have to take the good with the bad from Cousins, and Tuesday night was a perfect example. Cousins recorded 35 points, 17 rebounds, 6 steals and 4 assists in a double-overtime loss to Dallas...but he also had 10 (!) turnovers, completing the always exciting "triple-trouble."
Cousins is a little too high-maintenance for some owners, but he can absolutely carry you in the counting stats departments. And he can do this, too:
3. Who is the next Draymond Green?
Let's make one thing clear: we won't see another Draymond Green in the NBA or the fantasy world for a long, long time.
How often does a second-round pick who wasn't even worth a roster spot in fantasy during his first two years in the league become arguably fantasy basketball's MVP just two seasons later? It just doesn't happen. The only guy I can remember coming close to this is Gilbert Arenas, but he was never the best player in roto leagues like Green is right now.
Does that mean we should just treat Green like a total anamoly and stop searching for diamonds in the rough? Of course not! That's no fun.
So who is the next Draymond Green? Who is the next fantasy star to come out of nowehere and take the league by storm?
I'm keeping a very, very close eye on Aaron Gordon of the Orlando Magic over the next few months. Scott Skiles is a tough coach, and it can be hard to earn big minutes for him as a young player. Gordon is only playing 19 minutes a night in his second season, which isn't enough to put him on the fantasy radar. Yet.
Gordon's per 36 minute numbers paint a pretty picture for the future, though. Here's his per 36 line compared to Green's second season. Also keep in mind that Green entered the NBA after four years of college, while Gordon only played one.
Gordon: 12.9 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 47 FG%, 0.8 3P
Green: 10.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG, 40.7 FG%, 1.1 3P
Can Gordon improve leaps and bounds as a distributor and defender and earn consistent playing time like Green was able to? It might be tough, especially with Tobias Harris being a nice small-ball 4 at this point for Orlando.
Everything would have to line up just right, but Gordon has a lot of natural ability and is being under-utlized at the moment. Keeper league players should be excited about his future, and if something happens to Harris, standard league players need to be ready to pounce.
