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All right, let’s make this simple.
Got it? No one really does.
There are a ton of moving parts still to figure out with an extremely messy Big Ten race that appears destined to finish up with a three-way tie. It’s possible that Michigan State wins the Big Ten tie-breaker and goes to the Rose Bowl, but finishes third in the BCS rankings behind Wisconsin and Ohio State. The Big 12 is a total BCS mess with Nebraska sputtering against Iowa State, but still in range for the national title, while the South has several different wacky scenarios to determine the representative to play the Huskers (most likely). And then there’s the SEC.
This could get really, really interesting if LSU closes out strong and finishes 11-1, and Auburn loses somewhere along the way. Depending on the whims of the voters, there’s a chance that the Tigers (the LSU version) end up as the highest ranked one-loss team if the other Tigers slip with a poor showing at some point. But that’s all speculative. For now, all that matters is this: If Auburn and Oregon keep winning, everything else is just details.
Interesting aspects from the current rankings:
The big winners: LSU (10th to fifth), Stanford (13th to sixth), Wisconsin (ninth to seventh)
The big losers: Utah (fifth to 14th), Alabama (sixth to 12th), Oklahoma (eighth to 16th)
1. Oregon; Score: .9638
The Ducks aren’t a firm No. 1, just barely ahead of Auburn, but it doesn’t matter. At the very least, they’re a firm top two and there’s no way, no how they’re going to drop out of the national title chase as long as they keep winning. There’s no way they’ll be No. 1 in both polls and not play for the national title, even if the computers aren’t all that impressed, putting Oregon No. 2.
Predicted wins: at California, Arizona, at Oregon State
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 12-0
Predicted bowl: BCS Championship Game
Toughest remaining tests: at California, Arizona, at Oregon State
2. Auburn; Score: .9611
Auburn is just a hair behind Oregon for the No. 1 spot, but it’s light years ahead of TCU and isn’t threatened for a top two spot as long as it keeps winning. The computers have the Tigers No. 1, with only one of the six formulas not giving them a top spot; and that’s a No. 2 ranking. There’s a chance Auburn could get to No. 1 by beating Georgia, Alabama, and the Florida or South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game, but that doesn’t matter. Keep winning and it’ll all work out.
Predicted wins: Georgia, SEC Championship Game
Predicted losses: at Alabama
Predicted final record: 12-1
Predicted bowl: Sugar
Toughest remaining tests: Georgia, at Alabama
3. TCU; Score: .9259
TCU solidified its lead over Boise State for the No. 3 spot, and now it needs a break. Will it be enough to get into the Top 2 if Oregon and/or Auburn loses? Yup. Boise State probably can’t move in, but TCU is getting enough respect being ranked second from the computers to get the shot at the big prize with a little bit of help and a few more blowouts. Can the Horned Frogs possibly slip into the Top 2 if Oregon and Auburn win out? No.
Predicted wins: San Diego State, at New Mexico
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 12-0
Predicted bowl: BCS Championship Game
Toughest remaining tests: San Diego State
4. Boise State; Score: .8662
Boise State is screwed. It has done nothing wrong, yet, it’s firmly entrenched at No. 4 and isn’t going to budge without a huge slew of breaks. It might not even be enough if Oregon and Auburn both lose; the pollsters aren’t going to be too fired up to put in TCU and Boise State in the national title. A one-loss team might be forced in, but the Broncos can’t control that. All they can do is keep on winning big, and flawlessly, and hope someone notices.
Predicted wins: at Idaho, Fresno State, at Nevada, Utah State
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 12-0
Predicted bowl: Fiesta
Toughest remaining tests: Hawaii, at Nevada
5. LSU; Score: .8170
Well hello, LSU. Can the Tigers play for the national title if they don’t even win their own division? As the top-ranked one-loss team, and ranked ahead of Boise State by the computers, LSU is in a great position to be in the hunt for the whole ball of wax with a lot of luck. It’s going to almost certainly take two Auburn losses and an Oregon loss just to get into the discussion, but at least there’s life.
Predicted wins: ULM, Ole Miss, at Arkansas
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Orange
Toughest remaining tests: at Arkansas
6. Stanford; Score: .7454
Stanford went from being out of the mix at 13th all the way up to sixth just by blowing away Arizona. With the lone loss coming at Oregon, the Cardinal gets the respect of the computers, even if the humans want to see more. Eighth in the Harris Poll and ninth in the Coaches, the only chance to challenge for the national title is to keep winning big and hope for more love in the human polls.
Predicted wins: at Arizona State, at California, Oregon State
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Alamo
Toughest remaining tests: at Arizona State, at California, Oregon State
7. Wisconsin; Score: .735
Wisconsin needs to massage the computers. Fifth in both human polls, the Badgers are the best of the one-loss teams, but the computers aren’t so sure, ranking them tenth, with two formulas putting them 14th, keeping them out of the BCS Championship Game hunt. It’s going to take some key losses up top, and some blowout wins over the final few weeks, to move up.
Predicted wins: Indiana, at Michigan, Northwestern
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Sugar
Toughest remaining tests: at Michigan, Northwestern
8. Nebraska; Score: .7298
Nebraska all of a sudden slipped as the close call to Iowa State seemed to be a problem. That, and the loss to Texas stings even more now. The Huskers could move up with some big performances to close including a show in the Big 12 Championship Game, but the humans have to be more impressed. The computers are giving the respect, but Nebraska is ninth in the Harris and eighth in the Coaches.
Predicted wins: Kansas , at Texas A&M, Colorado
Predicted losses: Big 12 Championship Game
Predicted final record: 11-2
Predicted bowl: Cotton
Toughest remaining tests: at Texas A&M
9. Ohio State; Score: .6613
Ohio State is probably better than ninth, but it can’t seem to find something to grab ahold of. Ranked seventh in the human polls, the team needs to do something flashy to generate more of a buzz. Blowing away Iowa would be a start. The computers, though, HATE the Buckeyes. Ranked 15th overall with one formula putting them 19th, another 18th, and the highest of the six putting them 12th, the national title is out of the discussion.
Predicted wins: at Purdue, Indiana, vs. Michigan
Predicted losses: None
Predicted final record: 11-1
Predicted bowl: Capital One
Toughest remaining tests: vs. Michigan, Northwestern
10. Oklahoma State; Score: .6211
Oklahoma State could be a big player. Sixth among the computers, the ranking will only go up and up with some impressive games coming up, and if the Cowboys can somehow run the table, beat Oklahoma, and get to the Big 12 Championship game, then they become part of the discussion. Beat Nebraska in a rematch of a loss a few weeks ago, and there’s a chance to be the top-ranked one-loss team.
Predicted wins: at Texas, at Kansas
Predicted losses: Oklahoma
Predicted final record: 10-2
Predicted bowl: Alamo
Toughest remaining tests: Alabama, at Arkansas
In range:
11. Michigan State; Score: 0.6180
12. Alabama; Score: 0.5490
13. Iowa; Score: 0.5223
14. Utah; Score: 0.4669
15. Arkansas; Score: 0.4569
16. Oklahoma; Score: 0.3900
17. Missouri; Score: 0.3511
18. Arizona; Score: 0.3200
19. Mississippi State; Score: 0.3169
20. Virginia Tech; Score: 0.2647
