Michigan Wolverines

Predicting the College Football Playoff Committee's Fifth Ranking

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Predictions on how the College Football Playoff rankings shape up this week?

Forget 10 years, they’ll be talking about this game 50 years from now.  Ohio State’s 30-24 double-overtime win might be the best game ever in the rivalry’s history.

I’ve said it all year, Michigan’s lack of tough road games this season would impact the Wolverines in Columbus.

The Buckeyes beat Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Michigan State on the road and narrowly lost at Penn State.

Those adversity faced in those games, along with the culture Urban Meyer has built, allowed the team to remain composed and confident when nothing was going right offensively.

Jim Harbaugh and Michigan fans can gripe about the non-calls, the spot and whatever nonsense they want to use to excuse the loss, but three turnovers did more damage than any perceived non-call did.

The Wolverines folded when the game got tight because they did not have the experience of managing through the pressure that inevitably comes in a road game against a great team.

They also failed to put the dagger in Ohio State’s heart in the first half when the Buckeyes started most of their drives inside their own 10-yard line.  The game should have been over in the first half.

The Silver Bullets also played a tremendous game delivering blow after blow despite being on the field most of the game.

This defeat will sting the Wolverines for the rest of their lives.  That will be apparent when the documentaries are made years from now when the player’s bitterness will remain as raw as it is today.

Moving on to the rest of the Big Ten.

Penn State took full advantage of Ohio State’s win by thoroughly beating Michigan State to capture the Big Ten East Division.

Few are giving the Nittany Lions any respect right now which is a mistake.  They are a good team playing with a high amount of confidence.  I expect them to give Wisconsin all it can handle.

Speaking of the Badgers, they did not exactly play well in their tune up for the Big Ten Championship.  Minnesota’s a good team, but Wisconsin needed a strong fourth quarter to pull away.  If they play like this next week they will lose.

There should be little drama this week when the College Football Playoff Committee announces it fifth ranking on November 29 at 7:00 PM on ESPN’s College Football Playoff:  Top 25 show.

Here’s how the Top 10 will look:

#1 Alabama

Record:

12-0

Significant Wins:

LSU and USC

Remaining schedule:

SEC Championship Game against Florida.

Prediction:

I have some doubt about the Crimson Tide’s No. 1 ranking.  Now that we have the entire body of work to evaluate, it is obvious that the schedule has been average.

Does this mean they don’t belong at the top of the playoff committee’s rankings.?  No.  Alabama’s the defending champions so it has earned the right to stay there until another team knocks them off.

I just don’t buy into the argument that this is Nick Saban’s best team like some people are thinking right now.

The Crimson Tide will smash Florida next week in the SEC Championship game and earn the No. 1 seed in the playoff.

Ohio State

Record:

11-1

Significant Wins:

Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Michigan

Significant Losses:

Penn State

Remaining Schedule:

Regular season completed

Prediction:

The outcome was in serious doubt when the Buckeyes were down 17-7.  Meyer looked frustrated and J.T. Barrett looked lost.  Then momentum slowly started to tilt in the Buckeyes favor and as expected, they delivered when it mattered most.

The Buckeyes’ fate is not yet determined as far as the playoff is concerned.  Are they automatically in because of their resume or do they need Wisconsin to win the Big Ten Championship?

The Committee’s precedents will be challenged regardless of next week’s outcome.

This team’s strengths are resiliency and defense.  The inability to throw the ball and protect on the right side are its weaknesses.

Can they beat Alabama with no passing game?  Doubtful.

As crazy as this sounds, they might need Joe Burrow to beat the Crimson Tide.  That’s a gamble, but stretching the field and accuracy are needed to beat Alabama.  Its defense is just as good as Michigan’s and unlike the Wolverines, the Crimson Tide offense will find ways to capitalize.

Clemson

Record:

11-1

Significant Wins:

Louisville and Florida State

Significant Losses:

Pitt

Remaining Schedule:

ACC Championship Game against Virginia Tech

Prediction:

Tigers will remain No. 3 after thoroughly beating South Carolina.  Actually, they embarrassed their in-state rival.

After slogging through much of the season, Clemson is finally looking like a championship team.  DeShaun Watson’s confidence is high and the defense has a nasty attitude again.

The Hokies will put up a good fight in the first of the ACC Championship game, but Clemson will run away in the second half.  Tigers make it back to the playoff.

Washington

Record:

11-1

Significant Wins:

Utah and Washington State

Significant Losses:

USC

Remaining Schedule:

Pac-12 Championship Game against Colorado

Prediction:

The Huskies dominated the Cougars in the Apple Cup and the only thing standing between them and the playoff is Colorado.

Coach Chris Petersen never got his chance at Boise State to play for the BCS Championship despite having teams that should have been considered.

The Buffaloes rise to the top of the Pac-12 this season has been a great story, but there is no way Petersen lets the Huskies blow it.  They win a tight back and forth battle and lock a playoff spot.

Next Six:

No. 5 Michigan

Sound shocking to keep the Wolverines at No. 5?  Not really.  They beat Wisconsin, Penn State and Colorado and took No. 2 Ohio State to double-overtime on the road with a one-armed quarterback.

Michigan stacks up favorably against every team in the Top Four.  With a healthy Speight on a neutral field, I think they would beat all of them.

Just as the Buckeyes are better than Penn State despite losing to them, I think the Wolverines are better than Ohio State this year.  They just did not get the job done.

If Colorado and Wisconsin both win next week, Michigan will make the playoffs.

No. 6 Wisconsin

Even if the Badgers win the Big Ten Football Championship next week, I don’t think they can climb any higher than six without chaos next week.

No. 7 Penn State

The way the Nittany Lions are playing right now, it will be really tough to keep them out of the playoff if they beat Wisconsin.

At the same time, as good as they’ve been playing down the down the stretch, I think they would get throttled by Alabama.

The Big Ten is the best conference this year, but it may fall apart if Penn State makes the playoff over Ohio State.  I know that seems unfair, but sometimes circumstances matter.

The Buckeyes went to Happy Valley the week after playing an overtime night game at Wisconsin.  Penn State had a bye week to prepare and rest.

The Buckeyes had 140 more yards and held a 21-6 advantage until the special teams’ execution fell apart in the fourth quarter.

These are excuses, no less humorous than Michigan’s, but Penn State is not the Big Ten’s best team.

The conference would be better off sending its best team to the playoff this year over getting embarrassed for the second year in a row.

No. 8 Colorado

By beating Utah, the Buffaloes may have saved the Pac-12’s playoff chances by eliminating USC from consideration.

While the Huskies would have liked a rematch against the Trojans, their chances against Colorado are much better.

I think it is a longshot for Buffaloes to win the Pac-12 Championship.  A Rose Bowl trip will be a nice consolation prize.

No. 9 Oklahoma

The Sooners play Oklahoma State in Norman for the Big 12 title.  No amount of posturing will help.  The Big 12 will not be in the playoff this season unless Alabama, Clemson, Penn State and Washington all lose.  That still may not work as the non-conference losses are too much to overcome.

Oklahoma will beat the Cowboys and go to the Sugar Bowl.  That’s a good ending to a season that started miserably.

No. 10 USC

Last week I was wrong when I said the Committee would rank USC over Oklahoma State.   I think it actually happens this week after the Trojans won and the Cowboys were on a bye.

In the end, it does not matter who is ranked tenth.  The Cowboys and Trojans are not making the Playoff.

Analysis:

We have arrived at the final week of an amazing regular season and the best part is the final four teams are still in doubt.

Alabama, Clemson and Washington control their own fate.  Win next week and they are in the playoff.  Alabama is in regardless of outcome.

Ohio State is hoping the Committee values the total body of work over a conference championship.

More from Scarlet and Game

The Tigers and Huskies each have challenging conference championship games so there is an outside chance that one or both teams could lose.

There are some absurd, yet possible outcomes that could still happen. What happens next week if Clemson and Washington lose and Wisconsin wins the Big Ten Championship?

Does the Committee take Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin?  I suspect the Committee will select either Colorado or Oklahoma over three teams from one conference, but it is not out of the realm of possibility.

What if Wisconsin wins and Washington loses?  Will the Wolverines get in over the Badgers and Sooners?  I think they would.

My prediction is Alabama, Clemson, Washington and Penn State all win forcing the Committee to break precedent and select Ohio State as the fourth team.  Controversial?  Indeed.  It is still the right decision.

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