Mailbag: Why preseason favorite Ohio State likely won't repeat & more

Published Apr. 22, 2015 10:00 a.m. ET

Stewart Mandel

Editor's note: Send questions for future Mailbags to stewart.mandel@fox.com.

Welcome to the 2015 season premiere of College Football Mailbag. As new seasons go, I'm hoping to combine the laugh-out loud charm of "Veep" with the dark, brooding suspense of "The Americans." Conversely, if you find it mimicking the dreary, dragged-out feel of "Mad Men's" last days please let me know, but only in the form of a 3,000-word think piece.

I realize there is no shortage of outlets these days where writers publish and answer your questions, including among other college football writers on this very site. For those of you who've been reading and contributing to this column for years, thanks for your loyalty, and for those of you stumbling on it for the first time, welcome. I'll do my best to make it worth your while.

Finally, while acknowledging there are more modern and convenient ways to communicate with another person — text, tweet, Snapchat, WhatsApp and, as I learned about just the other night, Bro and Yo — I still prefer that you use the old carrier pigeon known as e-mail to send your questions. It encourages the kind of thoughtful, grammatically sound submissions for which this Mailbag is known.

Thanks in advance for your cooperation. On with the show.

Sure Ohio State is the favorite, but repeating is hard. Really hard. While complacency doesn't seem to be an issue with the program it seems to be so with the rest of the world (expecting them to have an easy time and roll through everyone). Where do you see the team's biggest possible problems in trying to repeat?

— Rob, Seattle

I visited Ohio State in early April and wrote a column along these very lines. As much as we try to quantify everything in sports, no one can deny that intangible factors like chemistry and psyche impact a team's success — and particularly in college football, where the difference between a one-loss national title season and a two-loss Peach Bowl season can swing on one last-second finish going the wrong way.

Ohio State's biggest challenge will be replicating the edge it played with post-Virginia Tech last season. That loss, as bad as it was, seemed to drive the Buckeyes the rest of the season. They played with the confidence of an eventual national champ but the loose vibe of a team playing with house money. Obviously, that's no longer the case, and the longer its current 13-game winning streak continues, the more likely it is the team will feel the weight of expectations.

Secondly, as much as Urban Meyer's quarterback quandary is primarily a luxury, and as well as those three guys seem to get along, who can say how the players will react once the day finally comes when one of Cardale Jones, J.T. Barrett or Braxton Miller gets the job and the other two do not? While on the surface it seems like the Buckeyes can't go wrong with any of them, it's an unprecedented situation and hard to visualize how it plays out.

And finally, Ohio State, like any team, has holes to fill. It just has fewer than anyone else. Personally, I don't worry at all about the Buckeyes' offense. They've still got playmakers galore. But don't underestimate just how important a role that D-line played in shutting down Melvin Gordon, frazzling Blake Sims and containing Marcus Mariota. The team overall will be more talented and experienced, but if it regresses in that one area it won't be as good, period.

All in all, it's a lot of nitpicking. Ohio State is still clearly the preseason favorite. But if you give me the Buckeyes or the field, I'd probably take the field, simply because history tells us how rare a team it takes to repeat. And that was before teams had to win an extra game against a top-four team.

Stewart: I think many in the know would acknowledge that if TCU's resume in 2014 belonged to OU or Texas, it would have been a no-brainer for the inaugural CFP. Then the Frogs dismantled a respected SEC West team, Ole Miss, in the Peach Bowl by a 42-3 score. What will it take for the Frogs to bust [through] in 2015? Also, what are your thoughts on TCU's AP preseason rank?

QB Cardale Jones.

— Kevin M. Wright, Aledo, Texas

So we started off with the likely preseason No. 1 team, and my guess is TCU will be No. 2. The Frogs return nearly the entire starting offense from a team that finished No. 3 in the AP poll last year and averaged 46.5 points per game doing it. What will it take to make the playoff this year?

First and foremost, beat Baylor. Crazy as it sounds, had TCU lost to a lesser Big 12 team but beaten Baylor, it probably would have made the playoff. As it was, the committee could not get over the head-to-head loss to Baylor, moved the Bears ahead of TCU on the final day and then deemed Ohio State's resume better than Baylor's.

To me it's a toss-up which of the two newfound rivals, TCU or Baylor, should be the preseason Big 12 favorite. Both return the bulk of their already powerful offenses, though the Horned Frogs bring back a Heisman-contending quarterback, Trevone Boykin, while Baylor must break in a new starter, Seth Russell. The Bears, meanwhile, bring back their entire defense, whereas TCU must replace key figures like LB Paul Dawson, CB Kevin White and S Sam Carter, though the Frogs' defense was much better to begin with. This year's game is in Fort Worth, on Thanksgiving weekend, and I'm guessing one if not both teams will be playing for a spot in the final four.

Hi Stewart, as you've documented in the past, there is a history of coaches making significant strides in their second year on the job. Of the big-name programs with second year coaches — USC, Texas and Penn State — do you expect to see similar jumps in success as seen in previous years?

— Ben Briggs, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

The key prerequisite for a coach to make a big second-year jump is that his predecessor left behind a decently talented roster but, for whatever reason, just couldn't make it work. Of those three, only USC's Steve Sarkisian finds himself in that position. James Franklin's Penn State roster is still in the depths of sanction decimation and Charlie Strong's Longhorns are perilously thin at quarterback, among other key areas.

Even the Trojans aren't completely back to full strength post sanctions, but no one could question their top-line talent, from a top-five passer, Cody Kessler, to a promising receiving corps to top-flight defenders like Su'a Cravens and Adoree' Jackson. We'll find out a lot this year whether Sarkisian is truly cut out to lead a name program to regular playoff contention.

With the ever-increasing spring game crowds (see Ohio State), how far away are we from teams being allowed to play other schools in the spring game? It would be a great time for historical powers to get together and would draw huge audiences.

Steve Sarkisian.

— Pete Gerski, New Berlin, Wisconsin

No question it would be more entertaining for fans than watching an intrasquad scrimmage, but I don't see it ever happening for one simple reason: Injuries. Most coaches' No. 1 goal in a spring game is that no one gets hurt, and assuming in Pete's scenario that schools wouldn't be traveling to other campuses to play two-hand touch, the injury risk would presumably be greater in a competitive game than a controlled scrimmage. In fact as I watched parts of several spring games the past couple of weekends, I found myself holding my breath every time LSU's Leonard Fournette or Alabama's Derrick Henry took a handoff. It's just not worth the risk.

But if 99,000 people are going to show up for a spring game, then spring games clearly aren't going away. I give Ohio State credit for turning its event into more than just a scrimmage. At halftime, Cardale Jones, J.T. Barrett and 2006 Heisman winner Troy Smith took part in a quarterback contest to see who could throw the farthest pass (Jones won at 74 yards), while Braxton Miller and Ezekiel Elliott raced in a sprint against fellow students. Fans are there primarily to get a taste of their favorite team on a sunny spring day, and the more schools can do to ramp up the entertainment factor — in a safe fashion — the better.

What should expectations be for Florida State this season? There's lots of talent, but they're young and they have some difficult road games.

— Matt Wright, Louisiana

Jimbo Fisher's program, which has gone a mere 39-3 over the past three seasons, has reached the point where it's reasonable to expect, at the very least, an ACC title contender every single year, and if the 'Noles win that, they're going to be on the CFP short list. It does appear this will be a rebuilding year for FSU, which is likely to feel the drain of not only losing a Heisman quarterback but a potentially historic NFL draft output in general. The 'Noles still have some proven stars in tailback Dalvin Cook, defensive back Jalen Ramsey and linebackers Terrance Smith and Reggie Northrup, but for the most part FSU's lineup will look a lot different in 2015 than it did last year.

But rebuilding is a relative term, and really, what's the worst-case scenario for FSU? It has only two realistic challengers in its division: Clemson, which is undergoing its own mass transition on defense, and Louisville. A trip to reigning Orange Bowl champ Georgia Tech is a challenge, too. Maybe the 'Noles trip up a couple of times, but I'd be surprised if they finish the season with fewer than 10 wins.

Stewart, I can see this cost-of-attendance issue getting out of control. An athlete who is evenly split on two schools may see that one school offers $3,000 and another offers $6,000. If things are 50/50 otherwise, that could be a huge swing. Shouldn't this be regulated so that all schools offer the same amount? I understand that living expenses would be more in Palo Alto than Auburn, Ala., but there should be a way to do this fairly.

RB Dalvin Cook.

— Eric White, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Actually, Auburn ($5,586) is providing a bigger COA boost than Stanford ($2,625), according to the Chronicle's research, which shows just how differently institutions calculate these figures. Mind you, athletic departments don't devise or report these numbers to the government; universities do. And while football dictates plenty of decisions at certain schools, don't expect administrators to start manipulating these numbers for the benefit of their football recruiters.

But I don't share remotely the same concern that some do about recruiting impact. In fact, until the day comes that a recruit tells Scout.com he chose one school over another over a $3,000 scholarship gap, I'm not buying it at all. Recruits spend a year or more building relationships with coaching staffs, visiting schools, studying which have the best opportunities to play early and/or which offer the best path to the NFL. I just don't see a kid weighing all of that, and then ultimately making his decision based on a scholarship check, even if, as you say, all other factors seem equal. I'm glad cost of attendance got passed, but my guess is a year from now, no one will still be talking about it.

Both Arizona's Rich Rodriguez and Arizona State's Todd Graham have their programs on the upswing. Both are coming off 10-win seasons. And both have a history of using their current job as a stepping-stone. If they find similar success this season, who do you see leaving first? Or, could we possibly have a fine duel brewing in the desert for the next few years?

— Jack, Taipei, Taiwan

I hope they do both stay and cultivate a decade-long desert duel. As it is, the Territorial Cup rivalry is more healthy now than it's been in some time, with the Sun Devils and Wildcats combining for the past two division titles and two of the coaches' first three meetings going down to the wire. But realistically, that's not going to happen.

ASU fans get very defensive whenever you suggest Graham may have a wandering eye, but sorry, when a guy's moved around as frequently as he has there's always going to be skepticism. This is his fourth head-coaching stop in less than a decade, and once he makes it through this, his fourth season, it will tie Tulsa for his longest stay. If he leads the Sun Devils to a Pac-12 title, and a marquee program comes calling, he's probably good as gone.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, already played the grass-is-greener card once and got burned pretty badly. He seems genuinely content where he is and seems less likely to bolt. Maybe that changes if AD Greg Byrne ever moves to a blueblood himself.

Stewart, normally the first few games of the season you expect to see your team's second- and third-stringers get lots of second-half snaps [against easy opponents]. With all the emphasis that the CFP Selection Committee placed on teams' ability to "control games," do you think that coaches will keep starters in longer in their early-season games to start building their resumes?

Todd Graham.

— Foster, Wilmington, North Carolina

I wouldn't think so. Or, perhaps I should just say, they don't need to.

"Game control" was one of the more overblown and misunderstood aspects of the first season of the playoff. If Jeff Long had just said "dominated" instead of "controlled the game," no one would have even noticed. If anything, the committee is saying that it pays attention to more than the final score, which means coaches should actually be less incentivized to run up the score. If Oregon goes up 40-0 on season-opening foe Eastern Washington, pulls its starters and wins 40-21, the committee will still view that as a dominant performance. Conversely, if Ohio State leads Virginia Tech 17-14 heading into the fourth quarter, goes up 24-14 midway through and makes it 31-14 with three seconds left, the committee will be astute enough to realize it was a tough win.

And perhaps most importantly, we learned in Year 1 that the committee members — like all pollsters before them — place far less weight on early-season results than they do end-of-season. So while you obviously want to win, beyond that, it's going to be far more important long-term to keep your players fresh than manufacture style points.

Stewart, the time has come. You've been out west long enough to render judgment. From Seattle, as a recent NYC transplant myself, I want to know: East Coast or West Coast? Thanks.

— Mathew Teagarden, Seattle

It's been three-and-a-half years, to be exact, and ... duh, West Coast. Every winter now, when I see the pictures and tweets about snowstorms and subzero temperatures, I just want to shake my friends back in New York and say YOU DON'T HAVE TO LIVE LIKE THAT. Then I go back to eating my deliciously fresh strawberries and watching primetime sporting events, then going to bed at a reasonable hour.

Now, ask me again in 10 years when I'm showering once a week to conserve water.

Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.