Kansas Jayhawks

If the Big 12 Collapses, Where Should KU Land?

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Sep 3, 2016; Lawrence, KS, USA; An overall view of Memorial Stadium before the game between the Kansas Jayhawks and Rhode Island Rams. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

After the Big 12 conference decided unceremoniously not to expand this week, the future of the conference seems as unclear as it has in years. Earlier this week, we suggested that the Big 12 was on its last legs, and may not last through the next decade. What outcome should Kansas fans want? We’ll go through a few of the possibilities: staying with the Big 12, moving to the Pac-12, and finally moving to the Big Ten.

Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Stay in the Big 12

This is a tough one, since it appears to not be likely after the conference grant of rights expires after the 2024-25 basketball season. Oklahoma and Texas certainly aren’t in favor of expansion, and Kansas isn’t either in all likelihood. If, and it’s a very big if, the Big 12 can stay together, then it would not be a terrible option for Kansas. It maintains historic rivalries with Kansas State and the remnants of the old Big 6 conference, and has a natural geography. It cuts down on travel costs for the non-revenue sports like baseball, track and field, and volleyball compared with joining another conference. Since the advent of the Big 12, Kansas football’s foothold in Texas has been a major contributor to the program’s success through the Orange Bowl victory in 2008. That Kansas team had 28 players from the state of Texas on the roster.

There is also significant potential for another large television contract. Texas is one of the preeminent collegiate brands on the planet, and Oklahoma is very strong in the Big 12 footprint. Kansas has a world famous basketball program to add value to television networks after football season. The Big 12 has also seen a renaissance of sorts in basketball, ranking first in conference RPI the last three seasons. With only ten members, the Big 12 can command a high dollar figure in revenue per institution for a relatively low total price for the networks.

On the downside, a ten-team league would be inherently unstable, especially if Texas, Oklahoma, and another school (possibly Kansas) insist on not extending the grant of rights. At any time, Texas could bolt the conference and sign a new TV contract with a number of suiters who would want to broadcast Texas football. There’s no doubt that top leaders at the University of Texas have seen the success of the Notre Dame/NBC arrangement, valued at $15 million per season, and think they could do something similar. For most of its existence, the partnership between the former members of the Southwest Conference and Big Eight has been awkward, and would continue to be so if the Big 12 remained in existence. If the divorce happens, where would Kansas end up?

Jul 15, 2016; Hollywood, CA, USA; General view of the Pac-12 Championship game trophy during Pac-12 media day at Hollywood & Highland. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Pac-12

Under commissioner Larry Scott, the Pac-12 has been very aggressive about expansion. Back in 2010, the then Pac-10 commissioner nearly dissolved the Big 12 when six schools, including Texas and Oklahoma, were “within 30 minutes” of bolting for the Pac-10. Thankfully for Kansas, the Big 12 hung together, as Kansas was without a clear alternative then. What if the Pac-12 wanted to expand again?

The likely candidates to join the Pac-12 in such a scenario would be Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Kansas, and would turn the Pac-12(16?) into two, eight-team divisions of eastern and western teams. The west would be Cal-Berkeley, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, and Washington State. The east would then be Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Utah. From a competitive angle, this would be terrific for Kansas. The Jayhawks would be reunited with old rival Colorado, and the divisional structure would keep a lid on travel costs for the rest of the athletic department. It would be a tremendous basketball conference as well, with historic powers Arizona, UCLA, and Kansas the headliners. Kansas could more effectively recruit the west coast, as they did during the Roy Williams era. The academic profile fits Kansas as well. Eight current members of the Pac-12 are AAU members. Kansas and Texas would bring their membership as well.

The drawbacks of Pac-12 membership would be just as, if not more, than the benefits. The Pac-12 Network has been an unmitigated disaster for the conference. Many of the largest television providers have not agreed with the network on carriage, so many fans can’t see their favorite school compete on the network. In fact, the network currently reaches only about 20% of the households that the SEC and Big Ten Networks do. The network has not met revenue projections either, and only returns between $1-$1.5 million annually to member schools. In contrast, the SEC Network returns over $7.5 million to each institution.

Football would also have a large adjustment to the west coast. Its most fertile recruiting ground in Texas would become nearly non-existent for a potential Pac-16 school. Recalibrating recruiting strategy would be a large hurdle for the Jayhawk football program. Geographic distance is also a factor. Road games in Pacific time would last well past midnight in many cases, long after the hardworking people of Kansas are fast asleep. Interdivision games, meets, and matches for non-revenue sports would feel the brunt of the time zone changes. A Pac-16 would be the only major conference with teams in three time zones, an arrangement TV networks would find unwieldy at best, and could impact the bottom line.

Oct 24, 2015; East Lansing, MI, USA; General view of Big Ten logo on field prior to a game between the Michigan State Spartans and the Indiana Hoosiers at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

The Big Ten

If the Big 12 dissolves, the Big Ten would be in prime position to expand from its current 14 members to 16. Kansas would definitely be on their shortlist for an invite. KU is a great fit for the Big Ten for a few reasons. Academically, the University of Kansas fits like a glove in the Big Ten. KU carries the weight of AAU membership, including an international brand in the KU Medical Center. KU has a large endowment as well, over $1.5 billion, the second largest in the Big 12 and would be in the upper half of Big Ten institutions, according to public filings. After the Far Above capital campaign, which raised an astonishing $1.6 billon, KU will have some of the top academic facilities and faculty in the conference as well. For fans of the university and not just its athletics, the Big Ten is a tremendous gain for KU. Kansas’s biggest alumni chapter outside the state is also in Chicago, making KU a great traveling school as well. Texas would also be a fit in the Big Ten. They have tremendous academics, and one of the biggest brands in the country. Oklahoma would seem unlikely, as their lack of AAU status and research portfolio would make them the least desirable institution for the Big Ten.

On the competitive side, the Big Ten is a great fit as well. Almost the entire conference is in the central time zone and the Midwest, making Kansas a natural geographic extension. KU would continue its longstanding matchups with Nebraska, as well as make new rivals in an expanded Big Ten West Division. The west could include Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue, Texas and Wisconsin. Northwestern would move to the East, which would be Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, and Rutgers. KU’s non-revenue sports would find this arrangement optimal for travel and time zone considerations.

The Big Ten would instantly become the best athletic conference in the country. Texas would join powers Ohio State, Michigan, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. Kansas would headline a very stout group of basketball programs, whose matchups with Indiana, Michigan State, Maryland, and Wisconsin would be must-see TV for Midwesterners. The Big Ten Network and national networks would absolutely drool over the potential for the conference. KU would add a significant portion to the Kansas City market, and Texas would anchor the nation’s second largest state and extend the Big Ten’s reach into the South. The value per school of the Big Ten Network alone could reach into the $15 million range, since the current figure is believed to be well above the SEC Network’s $7.5 million per school.

The cons to joining the Big Ten are mostly on the competition side. For football, it would be very difficult to compete. With only one game in Texas every two seasons, it would eliminate KU’s ability to recruit there. Recruiting the Midwest would also be difficult, since many high school football players want to play for more established Big Ten schools. On the basketball front, the Big Ten would be a challenge for Kansas. Most programs utilize a very deliberate style of basketball, much different from Kansas’s faster tempo. This could impact everything from recruiting, especially in Texas and the South at large, to the number of games they would win every year.

Feb 3, 2016; Lawrence, KS, USA; An overall view of Allen Fieldhouse before the game between the Kansas State Wildcats and Kansas Jayhawks. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

So, what to do?

After evaluating all potential options, including remaining in the Big 12, joining a 16-team Pac-12, or gaining membership in the Big Ten, I think the best option is clear. The Big Ten offers the best combination of stability, academic prestige, financial gains, and competition for KU. The University of Kansas would join the best conference in the nation, both academically (in Division 1), and athletically. They would be a member of like-minded research institutions that all are members in the prestigious American Association of Universities as well. With the unprecedented investment in academics, KU would fit like a glove. The Big Ten Network and national television contracts would open up a gusher of revenue into the KU Athletic Department, potentially making facility upgrades and prominent coaching hires easier.

The competition would be the best KU has ever had. It could mean the Jayhawks struggle at first, as Nebraska found out when first admitted to the Big Ten. They’ve rebounded nicely, and are ranked in the top 10 for the first time since joining the conference. For Kansas fans, this choice, should it present itself, is a no-brainer. The Big Ten is the best fit for the Jayhawks should the Big 12 collapse and KU need a new conference home.