College Football

FSU Football: The Nole's Defense Is Almost 2009 Bad?

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 7:01 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

foxsports

Dec 31, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive coordinator Charles Kelly coaches against the Houston Cougars in the second quarter in the 2015 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The FSU football defense has been under scrutiny as they are giving up 35 points per game. Just how bad is this year’s defense?

The FSU defense has been very Jekyll and Hyde this season. The first half of the opening game saw Ole Miss run up and down the field effortlessly, but the second half saw the FSU defense forcing turnovers and holding Ole Miss to 78 yards on 25 plays.

Against Charleston Southern, the ‘Noles were better against an inferior opponent but still had some confusion in with the back seven.

Then we get to the Louisville game where it looked like the FSU defense had never played together before in their life. I thought I saw Korey Mangum out there once or twice.

The Louisville game was the most points ever given up by a FSU defense. The 2009 defense didn’t even give up that many points!

Was it Louisville was that good offensively or was the FSU defense that terrible? Probably a little of both but more of the latter.

I say that because the same issues from the Louisville game reared their heads in the USF game on Saturday. It makes sense since both teams run similar offensive styles. An athletic quarterback using his legs and taking shots deep down the field.

USF scored touchdowns on its first two possessions, then the FSU defense shut them down for almost two quarters before USF scored two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

Jekyll and Hyde.

Was it that the FSU defense figured out their issues, and just let off the gas once they were up multiple touchdowns? We hope that’s the case, but right now the 2016 defense is on par or worse than the terrible 2009 FSU defense.

Sep 24, 2016; Tampa, FL, USA; South Florida Bulls running back D’Ernesto Johnson scores against Florida State. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

How Bad Is It?

Well, for starters the 2016 defense is giving up more points per game over four games compared to the entire 2009 season.

Points per game is not a very good metric to use when qualifying a defense, but it’s what most casual fans will look at.

It’s not a good metric because of field position a lot of times.. It’s very difficult for the defense to hold court with a short field, but if the team scored it would be counted against the defense say after a turnover or a poor punt.

Anyways, the 2016 defense is allowing teams to score 35 points per game. The 2009 defense allowed teams to score 30 points per game over the season.

Now, it’s also true that the 2016 defense has faced some prolific offenses through the first four games. They have faced two ranked teams, but the 2009 defense also faced two ranked teams through the first four games.

Sep 17, 2016; Louisville, KY, USA; Louisville Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) avoids the tackle of Florida State Seminoles linebacker Dontavious Jackson (5) during the second quarter at Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

More Bad News

Since points allowed per game isn’t a good metric to qualify a defense, let’s look at another metric like yards allowed per play.

The 2016 defense is allowing teams to gain 6.78 yards per play over the first four games. The 2009 defense allowed 6.75 yards per play over the course of the entire season.

Watching the Ole Miss, Louisville and South Florida games were eerily similar to what we witnessed in 2009.

Remember the Georgia Tech game that year when the FSU defense didn’t force ONE punt the entire game?

What about Tim Tebow gouging the FSU defense that year for 221 yards through the air and 90 more yards on the ground? Or what about Jeff Demps running wild for 106 yards on seven carries?

The 2016 defense allowed Ole Miss to gain 5.9 yards per play, and that’s with gaining four turnovers. They allowed 8 yards per play against Louisville, which includes garbage time and Louisville pulling their starters early in the second half.

The 2016 defense allowed USF to gain 8.18 yards per play on Saturday.

That’s absurd as USF had 290 yards on the ground with a quarterback that was completing 54 percent of his passes through four games.

If we use this metric, the 2016 FSU defense has gotten worse each game, not better.

Sep 5, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive end DeMarcus Walker (44) sacks Mississippi Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly (10) during the second half at Camping World Stadium. Florida State Seminoles defeated the Mississippi Rebels 45-34. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Rushing Defense

When most people think of the 2016 defense, it’s probably the coverage busts in the back seven with opposing wide receivers running wild against the secondary.

That’s true, but a lot of blame can be placed on redshirt freshmen Tavarus McFadden and Marcus Lewis back there. Both have given up multiple huge plays over the first four games.

However, the glaring stat I want to point out is the rushing defense for 2016. Over the first four games, the FSU defense is allowed teams to get 5.45 yards per carry.

If we compare that to the 2009 defense, that team allowed 5.39 yards per carry over the entire season.

Say what?

Sep 5, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive back Derwin James (3) celebrates after a play in the fourth quarter against the Mississippi Rebels at Camping World Stadium. Florida State Seminoles won 45-34. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

Biggest Difference

The comparison is astounding to begin with. However, the scary part about comparing the 2016 defense to the 2009 defense?

The scheme the 2009 defense was running was severely outdated. The 2009 team didn’t have near the talent level that this 2016 team has.

The defensive line is bigger, there’s more depth and the back seven is bigger and faster with more length.

So how in the world is the 2016 defense on course to be just as bad or worse than the 2009 defense?

Is it the heavy slate of good to great offenses the 2016 defense has been up against? After all, Ole Miss gained 7.15 yard per play against the almighty Alabama defense.

Could it be sheer youth? We mentioned McFadden and Lewis, but the linebackers Matthew Thomas and Ro’Derrick Hoskins both less than two years worth of starts under their belts.

Maybe it’s a little of both.

Sep 5, 2016; Orlando, FL, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive back Marcus Lewis (24) reacts after a penalty in the second quarter against the Mississippi Rebels at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports

Conclusion

It might get worse before it gets better. Here’s a look at the upcoming offenses the FSU defense will face in the next two weeks.

More from Chop Chat

FSU football faces UNC this Saturday. The UNC offense is averaging 7.41 yards per play through four games.

The following week FSU football faces arch rival Miami. They Hurricanes are averaging 8.29 yards per play through four games.

Now, neither team has faced a team with the athletes that FSU has on its roster. The question is will the athletes on the FSU roster decide to play disciplined and assignment football?

Can they avoid the confusion in the secondary and set the edge against the run?

The good news is neither team has a quarterback like Lamar Jackson or Chad Kelly. UNC’s Mitch Trubisky can throw it and run with his legs when he has too, but he’s not the type of quarterback to kill you with his legs.

He has rushed for 62 yards on 26 carries this season. Brad Kaaya of Miami is the definition of pure pocket passer, so at least the FSU defense will not have to worry about that facet of the game.

These next two games could define FSU’s season. If the FSU defense can play competently, they should win both games because UNC and Miami have suspect defenses.

If not, they could be saddled with back-to-back losses.

This article originally appeared on

share

Get more from College Football Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

College Football

Florida State Seminoles