Oregon Basketball: Five reasons why the Ducks will win it all
Dec 30, 2016; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks guard Dylan Ennis (31) and Oregon Ducks forward Jordan Bell (1) block USC Trojans guard Jordan McLaughlin (11) in the first half at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports
What are five reasons why Oregon basketball will win the National Championship?
While teams like Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Georgia Tech, Boston College and others impressed during this past week in college basketball, the Oregon Ducks made the biggest leap of any team. The Ducks, who beat UCLA and USC in Eugene, went from just any old top 25 team to a squad that can legitimately challenge the Bruins for the Pac-12 title.
Last season, Oregon was a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history and were searching for their first Final Four since 1939. Instead, the Ducks made the Elite Eight before losing to Buddy Hield and the Oklahoma Sooners.
In 2016-17, Dana Altman’s squad doesn’t just have a goal of making the trip to Phoenix in April, they want to win the National Championship.
And after this past week, the Ducks have a chance to do just that.
Oregon is 13-2 overall this season, with their two losses coming against Baylor (who is a top five team) and Georgetown (in Dillon Brooks’ first game back from a foot injury that required surgery). They’re likely to shoot up the rankings on Monday and have a relatively easy road over the next five games (@Washington State, @Washington, vs. Oregon State, vs. California, vs. Stanford).
Last year, after the NCAA Tournament was revealed, I had the Ducks winning it all. This season, I’m going to tell you five reasons why they will actually capture the crown when all is said and done.
Dec 20, 2016; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks forward Dillon Brooks (24) looks at the official following his second foul in the first quarter against the Fresno State Bulldogs at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports
5. Ducks rounding into form from three point range
Oregon didn’t exactly shoot lights out from the beyond the three point arc over their first 13 games. In fact, the Ducks are currently shooting 32 percent from long range for the entire season overall. Their best perimeter shooter is Dillon Brooks, who is hitting 38 percent of his threes and missed the first three games of the season.
But in their two games against UCLA and USC this past week, the Ducks suddenly found their stride from long range.
Against the Bruins, the Ducks hit 11 treys (37 percent from the field), including SEVEN in the opening half. Oregon made the Bruins’ zone defense look questionable and forced Steve Alford to make adjustments after halftime. On top of that, Brooks’ game-winner with less than a second left came from beyond the three point arc.
In Oregon’s thrashing of USC on Friday night, the Ducks hit 8-of-20 threes (40 percent). Brooks went 4-of-4 from three, Dylan Ennis drilled two and even Keith Smith and Roman Sorkin got in on the fun by hitting one apiece.
If the Ducks are shooting like that, their offensive attack is near impossible to stop. And that in turn makes them a match-up nightmare.
March 24, 2016; Anaheim, CA, USA; Oregon Ducks forward Jordan Bell (1) grabs a rebound against Duke Blue Devils during the second half of the semifinal game in the West regional of the NCAA Tournament at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro USA TODAY Sports
4. Rebounding
With Dillon Brooks back in the starting lineup, the Ducks have their full complement of rebounders.
Between Brooks, Chris Boucher, Jordan Bell, Kavell Bigby-Williams and Roman Sorkin, Oregon has a front court that can compete with any team in the country on the glass. Boucher may not be the strongest four/five man in the country, but he has the length to snatch boards that are out of his vicinity. Brooks and Bell are two of the more physical and competitive bigs in the Pac-12, and Bigby-Williams and Sorkin are fine backups.
Even the guards are terrific on the glass.
Tyler Dorsey and Dylan Ennis combine to average 8.3 rebounds per game and have the size and length to crash the boards in smaller lineups.
Overall, Oregon is 40th in the country in rebounds per game (40.1) and they’re 26th in the country in rebounding margin. That means the Ducks close out their defensive possessions successfully and also give themselves multiple opportunities to score on offense.
Dec 30, 2016; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks guard Dylan Ennis (31) dribbles the ball around USC Trojans guard De’Anthony Melton (22) in the second half at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports
3. They have talent beyond their best player
While Dillon Brooks is clear and away the best player on the roster, the Oregon Ducks don’t lack depth and balance.
The Ducks have five players that average in double figures (Brooks, Chris Boucher, Tyler Dorsey, Dylan Ennis and Jordan Bell), while freshman Payton Pritchard continues to come into his own.
Boucher stretches the floor, provides size on the interior and has the versatility to play either the four (when Bell is at the five) or the five (when Brooks is at the four).
Dorsey has been very inconsistent to start his sophomore season and has been inefficient from three. However, he is still averaging the third most points on a balanced roster.
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Ennis seemed to be struggling with an adjustment to his new role (he’s not the lead point guard or top two option in clutch situations anymore), but has finally peaked at the right time. The former Villanova Wildcat has scored in double figures in four out of his last five games, and has scored 20 plus points in two out of his last five. Against USC, Ennis carved up the Trojan defense, putting up 20 points on 8-of-15 shooting.
Bell is averaging close to a double double (10.8 points and 8.1 rebounds) and is shooting with a high efficiency (58 percent). He’s tough as nails and protects the rim defensively (along with Boucher).
Finally, Pritchard has entered the starting lineup since Boucher’s ankle injury. He has played relatively well, scoring 15 points against UCLA, but has also been inconsistent, which is typical of a freshman.
Overall, the Ducks have enough beyond Brooks to challenge the top teams in the country. And they’ve already proven that they can beat those types of teams, as they ended two undefeated seasons this past week.
Dec 30, 2016; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks forward Dillon Brooks (24) and Oregon Ducks guard Casey Benson (2) control a loose ball in the second half against the USC Trojans at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports
2. Offensive punch
While the Ducks have a great defensive team (46th in points allowed), Dana Altman’s program is known for their offensive abilities.
The Ducks are averaging 79.4 points per game (67th in the NCAA), including averaging 86.5 points in their last two games.
So what makes Oregon so difficult to guard?
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First of all, Altman’s system is terrific. They spread the floor, distribute the ball, cut, screen and constantly move without the basketball. They can play four or five-out, penetrate the lane and kick to an open shooter.
Oregon has players that can break down the defense (Tyler Dorsey, Dillon Brooks, Dylan Ennis), but the ball doesn’t stick. In fact, Oregon is averaging 16.9 assists per game, which is 37th in the country.
In addition to their scheme and unselfish play, the Ducks have plenty of versatility up and down their rotation. Brooks, Ennis, Dorsey, Payton Pritchard and Chris Boucher can all play numerous positions on any given night and Bell has suddenly started taking and making some threes and has increased his free throw percentage this season.
When the Ducks are clicking on all cylinders, like they were against UCLA and USC, they’re awfully tough to stop. It’s going to take an elite defensive team to contain them in March, and even that is asking for a lot from an opponent.
Dec 28, 2016; Eugene, OR, USA; UCLA Bruins guard Isaac Hamilton (10) reaches to block Oregon Ducks forward Dillon Brooks (24) while he shoots the ball in the first half at Matthew Knight Arena. Mandatory Credit: Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports
1. Dillon Brooks is 100 percent
Oregon’s best player, Dillon Brooks, was still recovering from offseason foot surgery at the beginning of the 2016-17 campaign. He missed the first three games and returned in a loss to the Georgetown Hoyas in Maui.
Brooks came off the bench and played limited minutes before re-entering the starting lineup just four games ago.
However, Brooks didn’t truly look like himself until this past week when he tore through both UCLA and USC’s defenses.
Brooks scored 23 points on 9-of-20 shooting against the Bruins. He grabbed nine rebounds, dish out four assists, and oh yeah, he also hit this game winner.
Dillon. Brooks. (via @Pac12Network) https://t.co/vSaPLxx1Tk
— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) December 29, 2016
In the Ducks’ following game against USC, Brooks scored 28 points on 9-of-10 shooting (4-of-4 from three), grabbed three rebounds and dished out three assists in only 24 minutes.
On the season, Brooks is averaging 14.8 points, 3.1 assists and 2.8 rebounds, while shooting 49 percent from the field and 38 percent from deep.
It may sound cliche, but Brooks makes everyone on his team better. Because opponents have to account for Brooks’ ability to score all over the floor, this frees up looks for Dylan Ennis, Tyler Dorsey, Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell. Brooks helps spread the floor in five-out lineups (Boucher at the five), creating major match-up advantages and mismatches that he and others can attack.
Dana Altman’s free-flowing offense operates best when Brooks is healthy. And Oregon is in luck because their junior forward is officially 100 percent.
