Louisville Basketball: Cardinals poised to be top-five team in AAC
What questions does Rick Pitino and Louisville basketball have to answer before the 2016-17 season tips-off?
Louisville finished fourth in the ACC standings last year, but their 23-8 record was put to waste by the fact that they were ineligible to compete in the postseason. Because of the Cardinals’ escort scandal, the school opted to give the basketball program a postseason ban (and some recruiting restrictions) to limit or negate future NCAA sanctions.
While graduate transfers Damion Lee and Trey Lewis were heartbroken, the Cardinals used the end of last season as an opportunity to develop some younger players.
The Cardinals need those young, unproven talents to step up if they are going to be successful in 2016-17. Head coach Rick Pitino has just two seniors on his roster and one graduate transfer, so the Cardinals will have to pick out the gems in their rotation.
Louisville has multiple returnees, including junior point guard Quentin Snider, 7’0″ forward Matz Stockman, junior forward Jaylen Johnson, senior big Mangok Mathiang, sophomore forward Raymond Spalding, forward Anas Mahmoud, sharp shooter David Levitch and sophomore guard Donovan Mitchell.
The Cardinals also added Penn graduate transfer Tony Hicks and five-star small forward V.J. King.
Then there’s Deng Adel, who is also returnee but never was 100 percent last year. Adel dealt with a knee injury for the majority of last season and missed nine games in non-conference play. He averaged just over 12 minutes a game and never found a consistent role. However, he is expected to be one of the team’s best players in 2016-17.
Overall, the Cardinals should finish at the top of the ACC standings and will be dancing when March rolls around. Pitino has raved about his team’s athleticism and length, but there are still some questions to be answered if they want to make a run in the NCAA Tournament.
Nov 13, 2015; Louisville, KY, USA; Louisville Cardinals head coach Rick Pitino watches from the sideline during the second half against the Samford Bulldogs at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Samford 86-45. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
3. Will Pitino be able to find a consistent rotation?
As mentioned on the previous slide, Louisville has multiple options on their roster, especially up front. The Cardinals will be deeper, longer and more athletic this season, which fits in perfectly with Rick Pitino’s scheme.
However, there are some issues regarding the rotation. There are a lot of unknown, unproven players that are stepping into larger roles in 2016-17. Pitino has to figure out who can be counted on in big situations, who is capable of playing a plethora of minutes and who is most comfortable in what role.
The Cardinals lost their top three scorers and most experienced players, so it will be a bit of a adjustment process early in the new season.
The fact that they can go 11 deep could be beneficial or it could be a detrimental depending on the scenario, game or match-up.
While it’s unknown as to who will start and play where, one thing is almost for certain: Donovan Mitchell and Deng Adel will be two of Louisville’s top players.
Mitchell is expected to have a breakout season this year, as the former four-star guard had a solid freshman campaign. The guard was especially impressive on the defensive end, however, he did have a stretch of eight games from the end of January to the middle of February where he scored double figures in six of the eight outings.
On the season, Mitchell averaged 7.4 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game.
Meanwhile, Adel is coming off a serious knee injury that limited him for all of 2015-16. His versatility, wingspan and athletic abilities have him set to shine for Pitino.
Adel did show flashes despite the injury last year though. He scored 12 points in back-to-back games against Duke and Pittsburgh at the end of February, and dropped 13 points and grabbed seven boards in a crushing of Boston College in January.
If these two players do indeed emerge and Pitino can find consistency within his rotation, the Cardinals will be headed down the correct path.
Dec 2, 2015; East Lansing, MI, USA; Louisville Cardinals center Mangok Mathiang (12) and Michigan State Spartans forward Matt Costello (10) and Cardinals guard Trey Lewis (3) fight for position during the second half of a game at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. MSU won 71-67. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
2. Which front court players will take their game to the next level?
We’ve already talked about Deng Adel. He will play some power forward, but the 6’7″ sophomore is also capable of playing the three position.
Beyond Adel, don’t be surprised if Raymond Spalding and Anas Mahmoud take big leaps.
Spalding was a four-star recruit and was ranked 59th in ESPN’s top 100 out of high school in 2015. He had a decent freshman season, averaging 5.6 points, 4.3 rebounds and 0.7 blocks in 17.5 minutes per game. He also shot a solid 56 percent from the field.
The forward runs the floor successfully and uses his long arms and leaping ability to rebound and finish around the rim. Spalding has soft hands and could mold into an effective pick-and-roll, pick-and-pop player in the future. He’s shown enough range (33 percent from three) to be respected beyond the paint, however, he’ll need to improve his free throw shooting (50 percent from the line).
Mahmoud was another highly recruited player out of high school. The 7’1″ big was a four-star recruit who was ranked 99th in ESPN’s top 100 in the class of 2014.
Mahmoud has struggled to live up to expectations in his two years on campus. He averaged just 1.2 points in 7.9 minutes in his first season and averaged 3.4 points in 13.7 minutes per game last season.
He has the mobility and size to be an impact player, but his efficiency has decreased and his lack of strength has shown consistently. Because he has some experience playing in Rick Pitino’s system and some experience playing in the ACC, expect Mahmoud to take a jump this year.
Mangok Mathiang is player that is being somewhat overlooked. He is the veteran of Louisville’s roster and has recovered from a broken foot that he suffered last season. Mathiang was the sixth leading scorer on last year’s team and could slide into Chinanu Onuaku’s starting role.
The other front court talents, Jaylen Johnson and Matz Stockman, also have size and skill, so they too should have an impact. Even V.J. King could play some small ball four to give the Cardinals match-up advantages.
Louisville’s talent in the painted area will be a major strength.
Feb 24, 2016; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Quentin Snider (2) dribbles the ball up court against Pittsburgh Panthers forward Jamel Artis (1) during the second half at the Petersen Events Center. Louisville won 67-60. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
1. Can Quentin Snider take reins of this team?
Quentin Snider has played a big role in his first two seasons with the Louisville Cardinals.
In 2014-15, the 6’1″ junior guard had a very impressive NCAA Tournament, as he helped lead the Cardinals to the Elite Eight. Snider scored 16 points in the team’s first round win over UC Irvine, 10 points versus Northern Iowa in the second round and 14 points in 37 minutes against North Carolina State in the Sweet 16.
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He struggled against Michigan State in the Elite Eight (four points on 2-of-9 shooting), but Snider already proved he was a special player in his freshman season.
Because the Cardinals were dealt a postseason ban last year, Snider was unable to follow up his dominant postseason performance. Instead, he improved his numbers across the board, became Louisville’s fourth leading scorer and molded into the starting point guard.
Now in year three, Snider will have to become a double-digit scorer, command the offense and continue to be one of the leaders of Louisville’s roster.
Will the junior be able to play impressively?
It’s certainly a strong possibility because Snider takes excellent care of the basketball, makes good decisions and is efficient. Most importantly, he is like an extension of Rick Pitino on the floor. His basketball IQ is second to none and he is even a solid defender.
Snider doesn’t get any national attention. He’s not flashy and doesn’t take over games with his scoring ability.
But he is a winner and has the knack for finding his open teammates.
That’s exactly the type of player that Pitino wants running his basketball team. And that’s exactly what is going to help the Cardinals finish in the top four of the ACC and make a run in the Big Dance.
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