Rays vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Picks - September 4

Ryan Pepiot gets the nod for the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday at George M. Steinbrenner Field against Kyle Manzardo and the Cleveland Guardians. First pitch is at 7:35 p.m. ET for the first game of a four-game series. The Rays are favored in this one, at -170, while the underdog Guardians have +142 odds to upset. Tampa Bay (-1.5) is the favorite on the run line. The total is 8.5 runs for this matchup.

Take a look at everything you need to know from a betting perspective on the Rays-Guardians game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

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Rays vs. Guardians Game Information & Odds

• When: Thursday, September 4, 2025 at 7:35 p.m. ET
• Where: George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida
• How to watch on TV: FDSSUN and CLEG

Rays vs. Guardians Prediction

• Score Prediction: Rays 5, Guardians 4
• Total Prediction: Over 8.5 runs
• Win Probabilities: Rays 56%, Guardians 44%

Rays vs. Guardians Betting Insights

• The Rays have been favorites in 68 games this season and won 41 (60.3%) of those contests.
• This season Tampa Bay has won six of its 12 games, or 50%, when favored by at least -170 on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Rays, based on the moneyline, is 63%.
• The Guardians have been victorious in 34, or 43.6%, of the 78 contests they have been chosen as underdogs in this season.
• Cleveland has a win-loss record of 7-11 when favored by +142 or worse by oddsmakers this year.
• The Guardians have an implied victory probability of 41.3% according to the moneyline set by oddsmakers for this matchup.

Rays Recent Betting Performance

• The Rays have a 5-1 record across the six games they were a moneyline favorite in their last 10 matchups.
• Over their last 10 outings -- all had a set run total -- the Rays and their opponents combined to hit the over on the total five times.
• The Rays are 8-2-0 against the spread over their past 10 games.

Rays Recent Stats

Rays Player Insights

• Junior Caminero has put up a team-best 40 home runs and 102 runs batted in.
• Of all hitters in MLB, Caminero is sixth in homers and sixth in RBI.
• Caminero carries a three-game hitting streak into this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .400 with three doubles, a home run, a walk and eight RBIs.
• Yandy Diaz is batting .294 to pace his team.
• Diaz is 48th in homers in the majors, and 39th in RBI.
• Diaz carries a three-game streak with at least one hit into this contest. During his last five outings he is hitting .500 with two doubles, three walks and two RBIs.
• Brandon Lowe is batting .265 with 15 doubles, 28 home runs and 35 walks.
• Lowe has at least one base hit in seven straight games. During his last 10 games he is batting .229 with two doubles, three home runs, five walks and 11 RBIs.
• Chandler Simpson is batting .294 with 11 doubles, three triples and 18 walks.
• Simpson has recorded at least one hit in three games in a row. In his last five games he is hitting .273 with .

Rays Team Props

Guardians Recent Betting Performance

• The Guardians have played as underdogs in eight of their past 10 games and won four of those contests.
• In their last 10 games with a total, the Guardians and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times.
• The Guardians are 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Guardians Recent Stats

Guardians Player Insights

• Jose Ramirez leads the lineup with a batting average of .278, while pacing the Guardians in home runs, with 26 and runs batted in with 70.
• In all of the majors, Ramirez is 31st in homers and 56th in RBI.
• Steven Kwan is hitting .274 with 25 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 45 walks.
• Kwan is currently 183rd in homers and 177th in RBI in the major leagues.
• Manzardo is hitting .231 with 14 doubles, two triples, 24 home runs and 42 walks.
• Angel Martinez has 21 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 17 walks while batting .226.

Guardians Team Props

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FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.

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