UFC 206: Pettis vs. Holloway Predictions
Saturday night, the UFC returns to pay-per-view with UFC 205 in Toronto, Canada. Headlined by an interim featherweight title fight, the card suffered from injuries to major fighters, which brought us to our current card.
The fight was previously headlined by a light heavyweight title fight, but an injury to Daniel Cormier scrapped that. Instead, Anthony Pettis and Max Holloway will battle it out for the aforementioned interim title, with the winner earning a shot at now-undisputed champion Jose Aldo.
In the co-feature, Donald Cerrone looks to continue his impressive move up to welterweight when he takes on the rarely boring Matt Brown. Another win for Cerrone at 170 would likely put him into title contention.
Also on the card are names such as Cub Swanson, Tim Kennedy and Jordan Mein, among others. Overall it should be a great night of fights with some big names. With that, let’s look at the card and make some predictions.
Main Card
Anthony Pettis vs. Max Holloway
The main event will be for the interim featherweight strap, as former lightweight king Anthony Pettis looks to take out the white hot Max Holloway. This fight was elevated to an interim title fight, as Conor McGregor hs vanquished the title, elevating Jose Aldo to undisputed champion. Pettis and Holloway are both creative, technical strikers that could give us a great kickboxing match. On the ground, Pettis is the far more proficient grappler, especially when it comes to submissions. That said, I don’t really see the fight going down. If old school Pettis shows up, he should find victory. However, given the recent histories of both men, I have far more confidence in Holloway scoring the win here, securing a date with Aldo down the line early in 2017.
Donald Cerrone vs. Matt Brown
Next up are the welterweights, as Donald Cerrone looks to continue his impressive run at 170 pounds against the always entertaining Matt Brown. This is another striking affair that should be more than entertaining. Brown is not the strongest grappler, and while Cerrone is a very good submission artist, he tends to stick with the kickboxing game that has made him famous. Cerrone is far more technical and unpredictable, while Brown likely has more power. In what should be the Fight of the Night if they play their chips properly, I think Cerrone continues his winning ways, scoring another victory here, while launching himeslf into title talks.
Cub Swanson vs. Doo Ho Choi
A high-profile featherweight bout is set to take place next, as Cub Swanson meets up with top prospect and Korean slugger Doo Ho Choi. Both fighters are known for their striking prowess, which will make this yet another great slugfest, potentially. Swanson’s biggest weakness comes when he’s on his back, as guys with submission games can finish him. As for Choi, “Super Boy” has immense knockout power, as seen in his three UFC outings. All three fights ended in the first round, ending Juan Puig (0:18), Sam Sicilia (1:33) and Thiago Tavares (2:42) with ease. In a striking outing, it could be pretty even, but in what looks to be an upset, I will take Choi, though a Swanson victory would not be surprising.
Tim Kennedy vs. Kelvin Gastelum
On late notice, Kelvin Gastelum returns to the middleweight division when he takes on Tim Kennedy, who was previously slated to take on Rashad Evans. Both men are noted grinders, so it will be interesting to see who imposes their will on the other. I see Kennedy as the stronger, more explosive fighter who also holds a big edge in athleticism. Gastelum likely has the better striking, though it’s so close it may not be much of a factor here. I expect Kennedy to win here, albeit in a grinding, slow affair.
Jordan Mein vs. Emil Meek
Canada’s own Jordan Mein has decided to un-retire and makes his return to the UFC here, fighting in front of his countryman against Danish debutant Emil Meek. Meek gained considerable attention in knocking Rousimar Palhares clean out at Venator FC in Italy. It took just 45 seconds to send the famous Brazilian into a deep slumber. However, when I look at Meek, I see that as a massive upset and a fight that should not define him completely. I still see some holes in his game, and although he is strong and powerful,he will go up against he experience and technique of Mein. Though he’s had a layoff from a brief retirement, he is still a very good fighter that has fought some high level competition efficiently. That’s why I think this will be his return party. He outdoes Meek here, proving the Dane may be a tad overrated.
Preliminary Card
Nikita Krylov vs. Misha Cirkunov
Surging light heavyweights are set to square off next, as Ukrainian Nikita Krylov looks to continue his unlikely run up the ladder against defending Latvian-Canadian Misha Cirkunov. Krylov is a striker who finds himself on a five-fight winning streak, all of which have come by finish. He scored submissions over the likes of Stanislav Nedkov, Marcos Rogerio and Francimar Barroso, while scoring knockouts over Cody Donovan and Ed Herman. He can struggle against takedown artists, though, which makes this matchup tough against Cirkunov, who has a strong ground game and has some solid strking to back it up. His UFC career has gone unblemished, dominating his fights en route to finishes against Daniel Jolly, Alex Nicholson and Ion Cutelaba. In what should be a chess match with violence, I think Cirkunov wins here, though Krylov could pull out the win as well.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Drew Dober
The lightweights are up in the next bout, as Canadian grappler Olivier Aubin-Mercier meets up with entertaining brawler Drew Dober. Dober is an iron-jawed brawler with good knockout power. He has surprised in his UFC career, and finds himself on a two-fight surge. Aubin-Mercier is a ground fighters with good takedowns and submissions, with his speciality being the rear-naked choke. Dober struggles against takedown artists and grapplers, so this is a tough matchup for him. Aubin-Mercier scores a submission win in this bout.
Valerie Letourneau vs. Viviane Pereira
Brazilian Viviane Pereira is set to make her anticipated UFC debut on late notice, stepping in for fellow debutant Poliana Botelho to take on Canadian veteran Valerie Letourneau. Letourneau is as tough and rugged as they come, as she can take some serious damage. She has strong striking skills, as well as good top-game grappling on the mat. Pereira is a good, well-rounded fighter that has run a 12-0 record in her pro career. She has notched notable wins over Duda Yankovich, Poliano Botelho, Liana Pirosin, Vuokko Katainen and Carolina Karasek, showing she has taken on tough competition in route to the UFC. This is a step up in competition for her, but I think she proves her worth, handing Letourneau her third straight loss in the UFC.
Mitch Gagnon vs. Matthew Lopez
Next up is a bantamweight bout, as Canadian Mitch Gagnon looks to re-establish himself in the 135-pound division against Matthew Lopez. Gagnon has not competed in two years, as his last fight was in December of 2014 against Renan Barao. Previous to that fight, Gagnon was a top bantamweight that found himself on a four-fight win streak in the UFC. Where he’s at right now in his career, I have no clue. As for Lopez, he is a submission fighter that will need to get Gagnon to the mat. There, he has a good chance at choking out or generally submitting Gagnon. That said, I think Gagnon is the better fighter if history is correct, and he will win his return fight.
John Makdessi vs. Landon Vannata
Lightweight scrappers will entertain the audience in the next bout, as Canada’s own John Makdessi squares off with Greg Jackson student Landon Vannata. Makdessi is a technical striker that throws a ton of different techniques. His kicks are among his most dangerous weapons, so expect him to throw kicks in high volume. At 24, Vannata is a very good prospect who gave Tony Ferguson all he could handle in his late notice UFC debut. He’s well-rounded, possessing strong striking and a good submission game, which I advise he uses the latter of. He does, as he scores a mild upset over Makdessi here.
Jason Saggo vs. Rustam Khabilov
The lightweights head to the cage next, as Canada’s Jason Saggo looks to score a big upset over the always-game Rustam Khabilov. Saggo is a strike first kind of a fighter, as he prefers the kickboxing game in his bouts. He has a decent amount of power and technique, so it would be smart to fight on the feet here. Khabilov is a power wrestler that has good explosiveness and is known for his suplexes. His striking is solid as well, though he prefers to beat opponents up on the mat. He will do that in this bout, as he grounds Saggo and pounds him until he gets a stoppage or a clear-cut decision.
Zach Makovsky vs. Dustin Ortiz
The flyweights are due to the cage next, as former Bellator champ Zach Makovsky takes on the ultra-tough Dustin Ortiz. Makovsky is a wrestler that prefers to grapple and search for ground-and-pound and submissions. He is on a two-fight skid, so he needs to desperately win this fight. Similarly, Ortiz is on a two-fight skid as well. He is a good all-around fighter that can be stymied by grinders and ground-oriented fighters. This is a tough matchup to call, but I will take Makovsky in a narrow bout.
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