The Early Breakdown: Does "Rumble" have a chance against "Bones"?
Now that Anthony "Rumble" Johnson has firmly established himself as the number one light heavyweight title contender and the scariest fighter in the division, one question still remains - Does he have a shot at beating UFC champion Jon Jones? In the game of common opponents, the answer would obviously seem to be 'yes,' as Johnson just stopped the man who arguably beat Jones when they faced in 2013, Alexander Gustafsson.
Of course, fights are about matchups, so in order to give our best early guess as to Johnson's chances against "Bones," we've got to look at how the two men specifically stack up against one another. When we do, we see a dangerous challenger capable of not just beating Jones, but knocking him out.
However, the champion will still likely have some considerable advantages at his disposal against "Rumble," and should be considered the favorite.
Here's how we see Jones winning:
For all his spinning strike attacks and dangerous front chokes, the champion's excellent game is based on his wrestling. It's his underrated ability to either keep the fight on the feet, or put his opponent on their back that allows Jones the confidence to open up with his unorthodox and reckless strikes that so often cause headaches for his rivals.
If Jones comes out with the type of strategy that he employed in rounds three and four of his most recent title defense, against Daniel Cormier, and looks to press Johnson backwards against the cage and work for takedowns, he'll give himself the best chance at winning. Johnson immediately makes opponents back up as he takes the center of the ring and boldly walks them down.
If Jones refuses to give up ground, and looks for opportunities to clinch high with Johnson, he'll take away the challenger's best weapons - his uppercuts â and should have the wrestling advantage, over time. Taking Johnson down won't be easy, as he too has underrated grappling ability, but if Jones proved to be the better MMA wrestler against Chael Sonnen and Daniel Cormier, he's probably the best in the world, period.
Jones will have the gas tank to grind for as long as it takes, and if he does get Johnson on his back repeatedly, he'll have chances to use his thudding ground strikes (especially his elbows) to stop the fight. Now, before he clinches up, Jones will still have some good tools at his disposal on the outside.
If Jon Jones (R) stands right in front of Johnson, he'll have problems.
In spots, the lanky and effectively awkward striker Phil Davis had minor success with kicks and long crosses when he fought Johnson last April. Jones is taller, longer, quicker, and a more fluid striker than Davis.
He'll have to take care to not let Johnson grab a leg and put him on his own back, but if Jones is on his toes, he should be able to give the Blackzilian something to think about on the outside in the form of kicks to the leg, especially if Johnson does his usual flat-footed plodding.
If Jones sets them up with punches, he'll also likely have opportunities to kick Johnson to the body. "Rumble" holds his guard pretty wide, on the feet, with plenty of room between his elbows and his torso for kicks to sneak in.
We have to emphasize, however, that Jones should not try to play the counter-strike game with Johnson, or stay on the outside, striking, for longer than he has to. Johnson has strengths in areas that could very well exploit the champion's weaknesses.
Here's how we see "Rumble" beating Jones:
The reason that we advised Jones not to stick around on his feet, exchanging strikes with Johnson, if he can avoid it is because the challenger is simply a more skilled striker. There is lots of justifiable talk about how much power Johnson wields with his strikes but he's also more technically sound than the champ.
Jones himself has great timing with strikes, and under-appreciated power, but he doesn't usually throw more than one shot at a time. Defensively, he still mainly moves straight backwards when pressured (though he struck well while moving backwards against Cormier), instead of angling out of danger and putting himself in better positions to counter.
In contrast, Johnson throws great strike combos, hard and often, and he gives opponents tough angles to deal with while on his feet. Unless Jones ties Johnson up, the challenger will have plenty of opportunities to get inside Jones' reach.
Anthony Johnson is dangerous when he is able to back opponents up and score with uppercut punches.
Once he does, because he throws punches and kicks in bunches, some of those shots are bound to get through. And, as we've seen, when Johnson touches opponents, he hurts them. We're also betting that Johnson will be prepared to make Jones pay for throwing any strikes out there that don't snap, or where he leaves his hands out of position afterwards.
If Jones throws kicks without having his hands up (as Gustafsson did right before getting tagged and dropped with a right counter last week), or leaves his head on the center line, Johnson has the speed to make him pay. Similarly, Johnson will likely be training to catch any kicks that don't have enough snap on them, in order to try and put Jones on his back.
Jones may have the wrestling advantage against Johnson, but we think that the challenger is capable of taking him down if "Bones" sleeps on him.
Both men's ground games off their backs (other than the ability to scramble up) are relatively unknown, and we're betting not particularly strong. So, whoever scores best on the feet, and/or is able to press the other against the cage and get top position for long stretches of time, should take this fight.
In the end, Jones seems capable of winning by either ground-and-pound TKO if he sticks to a conservative, grappling-based strategy, or decision. However, it will be very difficult for him to go untouched for five rounds by the very active-striking Johnson, and so we also think that the underdog has good chance at winning yet again by TKO or KO.
We've got a real battle on our hands, fight fans.
