Victory for Uruguay today would make it the most successful team in the history of Copa America with 15 titles. Paraguay has won the tournament just twice, the last time being way back in 1979. Both arrive in the final having yet to reach the heights their demanding coaches expect of them, but they’re here. And it all comes down to this.
Changing shapes
Paraguay coach Gerardo Martino is known as a 4-4-2 man, though one 4-4-2 can be very different to another. Against Brazil in the group stage he played with two wide men in Enrique Vera and Marcelo Estigarribia, with forward Roque Santa Cruz repeatedly dropping deep to function as a fifth midfielder. When they met Brazil in the quarterfinals, however, Paraguay maintained a more rigid shape with Victor Cacares anchoring the central areas in place of Nestor Ortigoza. As in the first match, Paraguay attempted to attack down the flanks, with Neslon Valdez dropping to help out Enrique Vera, but was totally outplayed by a dominant Brazil.
Seriously lacking a creative outlet in central areas, the most disappointing Copa performance so far from Paraguay came in its last match, against Venezuela, when Martino set out the most negative of all his variations of the 4-4-2. Estigarribia and Vera were dropped and replaced by Edgar Barreto and Jonathan Santana, resulting in a narrow midfield that played a significant role in producing one of the dullest games of the tournament. In Martino's defence, however, his decision to go so negative seemed largely because of an injury to left-back Aureliano Torres. Right-back Ivan Piris was forced to play on the left, and Martino seemed desperate to protect him.
Had Torres started, and should he make it back for the final, then you can expect to see Paraguay shift into a 3-5-2, something Martino has done numerous times in this competition. Dario Veron will often some across from right-back to make a third central defender, while Torres pushes further up the left flank.
Uruguay, too, has shifted its 4-4-2 after leaving behind its 4-3-1-2 following an injury to Edinson Cavani. Oscar Tabarez has since deployed a slightly narrower midfield, with Diego Forlan operating just behind Luis Suarez. In Uruguay's first match, Nicolas Lodeiro drifted in from the left to help Forlan create, and it was his pass eventually earned Uruguay a point. He has rarely featured since, though. In the semi-final with Peru, Tabarez shifted to a 3-5-2 which gave them greater width with Pereiras Maxi and Alvaro repeatedly providing outlets out wide. Aware that Martino will likely opt for another compact and conservative approach, it will be interesting to see if Tabarez is tempted into recalling Lodeiro for the final.
If not, Uruguay will once again be relying on the invention of Forlan, the dribbling of Suarez and the wing-play of the Pereiras in an attempt to break through a Paraguayan backline that has three clean sheets in its five matches.
Key Battles
Luis Suarez vs Paulo da Silva
Liverpool forward Luis Suarez made an immediate impact after securing his move to the quicker and more athletic English Premier League from Ajax; Paraguay centre-back Paulo da Silva didn't make anything like he same splash when he left Mexican football to complete his move to Sunderland. The 31-year-old, who has since joined Zaragoza in Spain, reads the game particularly well but can be vulnerable in one-on-one situations, especially when trying to defend on the turn against pace. If Diego Forlan and Alvaro Pereira can isolate da Silva before feeding Suarez, the Paraguayan may be in for a torrid time.
Marcelo Estigarribia vs Maxi Peirrera
Against Ecuador and Brazil in the group stage, Marcelo Estigarribia turned in two of the best performances anyone has managed in this year's Copa; most notably getting in behind Dani Alves – a space that for years we've wondered whether it even exists. However, he struggled in the quarterfinal when Mano Menezes restored Maicon to the Brazil team and was then dropped for the semi-final with Venezuela as Martino opted for four defensive-minded midfielders. A return to the starting line-up for him could benefit Martino both in defense and offense. Uruguay used its wide players well in its semifinal with Peru, with right back Maxi Pereira a particular danger. By deploying Estigarribia back on the left, Martino may well be able pin the Benfica man back and cut off a vital supply line to Suarez and Forlan.
Nestor Ortigoza vs Arevalo Rios
Ortigoza should retain his place after a good performance against Venezuela, and it will be fascinating to see him face-off against an equally heavyset Arevalo Rios in the Uruguayan midfield. With Martino opting to play four central midfielders against Venezuela, Ortigoza was by far Paraguay's mot creative outlet. A through ball from him will likely be the best hope Nelson Valdez and Lucas Barrios have of carving out a real chance in the final; it will be Arevalo's job to prevent Ortigoza from putting his foot on the ball and picking one of them out.
