By the time the weekend concludes, I’ll be redlining this initial rundown to include information about the first week of the preseason. Undoubtedly, I’ll be discussing a few injuries that send offensive and defensive lines shuffling and present opportunities for new wide receivers to rise up.
That’s fine. It’ll give us plenty of yelling to do on the radio and content fodder. In the interim, we can spend our time debating the top options on the board at wide receiver. The usual suspects lead the charge, but I suspect that the order is jumbled as you review myriad write-ups.
In a minor upset, Roddy White supplants Andre Johnson on my board in this iteration of my rankings. Are you a Johnson backer? How about Larry Fitzgerald?
Let’s get rolling.
45. Robert Meachem, NO
Analysis: Meachem did not achieve the dominant status that fans and fantasy owners had anticipated in 2010 following his nine-touchdown breakthrough in 2009. He battled an ankle injury that required surgery. Meachem recorded just one fewer reception that his 2009 total, though one-third of his yardage production came in two games. Meachem’s 100-yard games came in Weeks 13 and 16, long after fantasy owners had sought out alternative receiving options.
There are no questions about the New Orleans offense. It’s just a matter of how the workload is distributed.
44. Mike Williams, SEA
Analysis: Williams posted a fantastic comeback in his reunion with Pete Carroll. He had produced a total of 44 receptions and 539 yards in portions of four seasons between Detroit, Oakland and Tennessee before getting his shot at redemption in 2010. Williams caught 65 passes for 751 yards with two touchdowns for the playoff-bound Seahawks and showed flashes of his USC self.
Williams caught six or more passes in five games last season, including double-digit reception efforts against the Bears and Cardinals (twice). Most of Williams’ damage was done in those five games, so there is some inherent risk in his selection. I’m optimistic that Carroll can get more out of him in his second full season in the system, particularly with a top deep threat like Sidney Rice running opposite him.
43. Davone Bess, MIA
Analysis: Despite horrid quarterback play in Miami, Bess continued his dominance as a PPR option in 2010. He caught four or more passes in 12 games last season, yet he topped 60 receiving yards only six times (79 receptions for 820 yards and five touchdowns overall).
The quarterback position is a question in Miami, with Chad Henne expected to take the reins once again following the failed trade dance with Kyle Orton. Bess represents a solid WR4 option because of his frequent targets, but dominant efforts will be few and far between.
42. Jerome Simpson, CIN
Analysis: Simpson finished the 2010 season with a bang. He logged back-to-back 100-yard games while racking up 18 receptions against the Chargers and Ravens with three touchdowns.
Myriad changes occurred in the Cincinnati offense this offseason. Chad Ochocinco is off to New England. Terrell Owens is rehabbing his knee and will play elsewhere, if at all. As a result, Simpson slides up the depth chart and into the starting lineup for Andy Dalton (or a Palmer) alongside A.J. Green.
41. Plaxico Burress, NYJ
Analysis: Burress returns to the NFL following his incarceration and will serve as the complement to Santonio Holmes. He may have lost a half-step while away from the game. It doesn’t matter. Speed wasn’t his game with the Giants. Burress creates mismatches downfield, works the middle and will go up and over defenders in the red zone. Assuming that he’s ready to work, he’ll be a solid addition for Mark Sanchez.
40. Braylon Edwards, SF
Analysis: Edwards will never come close to replicating his brilliance of the 2007 season (16 touchdowns while working with Derek Anderson). He settled into a nice role as a No. 2 for Mark Sanchez and will now elevate to the No. 1 slot in San Francisco, particularly with Michael Crabtree still hobbled by a foot injury.
Edwards caught four or more passes in eight games last season and produced seven games with at least 70 receiving yards (904 receiving yards and seven touchdowns overall). In signing with the 49ers, Edwards did not receive any guaranteed money. He’s on a one-year deal and will most certainly be motivated to earn riches in free agency.
39. Mike Thomas, JAC
Analysis: Thomas’ highlight reel will always be led or capped by his 50-yard “Hail Mary” touchdown reception against the Texans from Week 10 of the 2010 season. His eight-reception, 149-yard effort was the outlier in his otherwise consistent weekly play. Thomas caught four or more passes in 11 games last season, producing more than 80 receiving yards on just four occasions.
He’s the leader in the Jacksonville receiving corps following the departure of Mike Sims-Walker.
38. Roy Williams, CHI
Analysis: The Bears signed a number of Dallas castoffs following the lockout, and the signing of Williams prompted many an “Eeeeeeehh” among fans and fantasy owners. Is he the No. 1 option that the Bears needed to lead a cast of second receivers? Obviously, a quick look at Williams’ run in Dallas leaves you skeptical.
Williams reunites with Mike Martz, with whom he posted a fantastic two-year period in the 2006 and 2007 seasons (145 receptions in 28 games for 2,146 yards with 12 touchdowns). He fits the system well and provides the Bears with a red zone option that was sorely lacking one year ago.
37. Hines Ward, PIT
Analysis: Ward finished his 2010 season with a fantastic effort against the Packers in Super Bowl XLV (seven receptions, 78 yards and a touchdown). He caught three or more passes in 11 games last season, averaging 47.2 yards per game with five touchdowns. Ward’s reception total of 59 marked his lowest output since 2000.
He stands as the No. 2 option to Mike Wallace for 2011. The potential is there for a bounce-back in terms of receptions and yardage to some degree, but the Steelers have several young options looking to take on larger roles.
36. Malcom Floyd, SD
Analysis: If the old school Redskins were “The Smurfs,” what would you call the Chargers’ receiving corps? Floyd received a huge opportunity during Vincent Jackson’s holdout and excelled prior to experiencing a hamstring injury. The injury derailed his second half efforts and limited Floyd to a total of 37 receptions for 717 yards and six touchdowns.
35. Johnny Knox, CHI
Analysis: Knox emerged from the pack to become Jay Cutler’s favorite target in 2010. He recorded 960 receiving yards on 51 receptions with five touchdowns. Knox caught multiple passes in 11 games last season, including seven games of at least 75 yards.
He’s in a sour mood early in camp, as the first iteration of the Chicago depth charts shows Devin Hester in a starting role opposite Roy Williams. I wouldn’t read too much into that. Knox will see his fair share of targets.
34. Jordy Nelson, GB
Analysis: Nelson established a new career mark with 45 receptions in 2010 and became a star in the 2010 playoffs. He then opened everyone’s eyes with a huge effort in the Super Bowl, racking up nine receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown in the Packers’ 31-25 win. He caught multiple passes in 13 games during the regular season and stands to assume a larger role in the loaded Green Bay receiving corps in 2011.
33. Julio Jones, ATL
Analysis: The Falcons paid a high price to trade up for the right to draft Jones. He joined his teammates for makeshift workouts almost immediately, looking to build on his post-Combine and post-Draft momentum and has set tongues wagging in training camp. Jones is a fantastic receiver over the middle that will most certainly benefit from the attention afforded Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Michael Turner. He’ll have plenty of room to run after the catch.
32. A.J. Green, CIN
Analysis: The changing of the guard is underway in Cincinnati, and a new No. 1 option was secured on the first day of the NFL Draft. Green becomes an instant starter for Andy Dalton (or Bruce Gradkowski) opposite Jerome Simpson out of the gate. He’s got breakaway speed downfield with a willingness to work middle routes.
31. Steve Smith, CAR
Analysis: Poor quarterback play and Smith’s continuing health issues contributed to his low output in 2010 (46 receptions for 554 yards). He inked a new deal with the Panthers at the end of the lockout and promptly sustained a finger injury in practice that will sideline him for at least one week.
The Panthers brought in two pass-catching tight ends in Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen to aid the development of rookie Cam Newton. Olsen’s work down the seams gives Newton a strong second option as David Gettis and Brandon LaFell continue their development. IF he can stay healthy, there’s upside from this WR3 starting point.
30. Pierre Garcon, IND
Analysis: Garcon shone in his third season out of Mount Union, registering 67 receptions and 784 yards with six touchdowns in 14 games. He caught three or more passes in 11 of his final 12 games. Unfortunately, Garcon topped 60 receiving yards only six times during that period and scored only one touchdown prior to Week 13.
The Indianapolis juggernaut returns for another run, and Peyton Manning continues to distribute the ball brilliantly. He’ll carve up the workload between Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Garcon and tight ends Jacob Tamme and Dallas Clark, who returns from injury.
29. Austin Collie, IND
Analysis: Collie played brilliantly as the third receiver for the Colts in 2009 and he started the 2010 season in similar fashion. He caught 27 passes in the first three games of the season and recorded four or more receptions in eight of the nine games in which he appeared.
Collie is clearly a PPR machine that isn’t afraid to operate over the middle. Unfortunately, that old interview nonsense of “my greatest strength is my greatest struggle” rings true as Collie enters his third season out of BYU. He’ll be watched closely for concussion symptoms after sustaining multiple concussions last season.
28. Santana Moss, WAS
Analysis: Despite obvious issues in the Washington offense, Moss caught a career-high 93 receptions and posted his highest yardage total since 2005 (1,115). He caught five or more passes in 13 games last season with 10 efforts of at least 72 receiving yards.
Moss clearly still has some gas left in the tank and an ability to make plays downfield. Somebody has to catch the ball if Rex Grossman’s prediction of a playoff appearance is going to be realized, right?
27. Mario Manningham, NYG
Analysis: Manningham moderately improved his average performance in 2010 over his 2009 production while recording four additional touchdown receptions. He caught three or more passes in 12 games last season and finished the year with three consecutive 100-yard efforts (four touchdowns).
Injuries to his fellow receivers opened the door for additional opportunities in 2010. He’ll remain a top option opposite Hakeem Nicks as the team awaits further information on Steve Smith’s health. Jerrel Jernigan and Mark Clayton will vie for looks in Smith’s absence.
26. Percy Harvin, MIN
Analysis: There are few players in the NFL more electrifying than Harvin in the NFL. He’s a threat to break a long one each time he touches the ball. In 2010, Harvin caught a total of 71 passes for 868 yards, including three 100-yard games (97 in another).
I suspect that we see a lot of quick-hit looks to Harvin from Donovan McNabb and that the Vikings do everything possible to get the ball into his hands. Harvin’s role increased when Sidney Rice departed for Seattle. The Vikings did not add a big hitter in free agency and will instead let Harvin lead a corps that includes possession man Michael Jenkins and occasional deep threat Bernard Berrian.
25. Kenny Britt, TEN
Analysis: Britt emerged as one of the game’s premier deep threats in 2010. He comes into 2011 with one huge question on the board. Will Britt’s off-field problems result in a suspension?
If not, Britt should most definitely benefit from the arrival of veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. Britt logged four receptions of at least 50 yards last season (seven receptions of 25 yards or more) and five games with at least 85 receiving yards in his 12 games. He was impacted tremendously by a hamstring injury, thereby cutting short what might have been a monstrous sophomore campaign.
24. Chad Ochocinco, CIN
Analysis: Ochocinco took a backseat to Terrell Owens for much of the 2010 season, registering 67 receptions for 831 yards and four touchdowns. His Twitter barrages and outspokenness finally signaled the end of his run in Cincinnati.
To take his statistical drop-off a step further, Ochocinco caught 72 or fewer passes in his final three seasons for the Bengals as the offense sputtered under Carson Palmer (and injury fill-ins during the 2008 campaign).
The lure of “The Precious” usually gets players ready to play for Bill Belichick, and I suspect that’s the case here as well. I’m not expecting world-beating numbers from Ochocinco, but the three-year slide in output should halt once he and Tom Brady get on the same page. He’s a solid back-end WR2 with upside if he can wrestle some red zone opportunities away from Rob Gronkowski and BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
23. Sidney Rice, SEA
Analysis: Rice’s hip injury was one of the most frustrating to track coming into the 2010 season. He was supposed to be ready for the start of camp, then the third preseason game and didn’t make his debut until Week 11. Rice ultimately caught 17 passes for 280 yard with two touchdowns (105 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills). His injury, coupled with Brett Favre’s rapid disintegration, led the Vikings to a terrible end.
He’s the leader of a new-look Seattle receiving corps and has openly endorsed the skills of quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, who followed him from Minnesota. If his hip proves sound, Rice’s size and athleticism make him a deep threat and red zone monster. I’m intrigued to watch Darrell Bevell’s offense at work.
22. Anquan Boldin, BAL
Analysis: Boldin didn’t light the fantasy world on fire in his first season as a No. 1 receiver. He caught only 64 passes despite participating in all 16 games for the first time since 2006. Boldin’s reception and receiving yardage (837) totals were his lowest since his injury-shortened sophomore season in which he played in 10 games. He opened the season with two 100-yard efforts in his first three games, including his eye-popping three-touchdown performance against the Browns.
Boldin caught four or more passes in seven of the Ravens’ first nine games. He caught three or fewer passes in six of the final seven games, including just five receptions for 26 yards in the Ravens’ final three regular season games. Boldin topped 60 receiving yards only six times. He’s a solid No. 2 option, but doesn’t rate as a top-tier fantasy hero in this offense.
21. Wes Welker, NE
Analysis: Welker remained a PPR beast in 2010, producing 86 receptions in his 15 games played. He caught three or more passes in every game of the season, but finished only five games with 70 or more receiving yards (one 100-yard game in the Week 14 rout of Chicago).
Welker welcomes Chad Ochocinco to the mix alongside tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. If he remains motivated, Ochocinco affords Welker a strong complement and will propel him back to the PPR elite.
20. Santonio Holmes, NYJ
Analysis: Holmes posted a solid first season for the Jets. He rejoined the team in Week 5 after serving a four-game suspension and produced 52 receptions for 746 yards. Holmes eased into the mix (10 receptions in his first three games) before his game expanded. It should be noted that his three biggest efforts came against the Lions, Browns and Texans, defenses that ranked 16th, 18th and 32nd against the pass, respectively.
19. Brandon Lloyd, DEN
Analysis: There are two questions to be asked of Lloyd coming into 2011. Was his performance in his eighth season the start of great things? Or, was the Broncos’ need to chuck the ball downfield in shootouts the catalyst.
Lloyd had caught a grand total of 164 passes with 15 touchdowns in seven seasons before arriving in Denver. He was a first-team all-fantasy stud with his 1,448 receiving yards, a total that included 18 catches of at least 25 yards (six 100-yard games).
To put the offensive scheme in perspective, Lloyd caught only 50.3% of the passes thrown to him. Do you trust the deep ball? Is he set for a huge encore or a tremendous flop?
18. Jeremy Maclin, PHI
Analysis: Teammate DeSean Jackson receives the hype, and deservedly so, but Maclin was equally deadly for the Eagles and proficient in the red zone. He scored four touchdowns in the first three games of the season and became a safety valve for Michael Vick. Maclin finished the campaign with 70 receptions, 964 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. He caught four or more passes in 12 of his 15 games with eight receptions of at least 25 yards.
I am moderately concerned about the undisclosed illness that has impacted Maclin in camp. Keep an eye on him as the preseason proceeds. Without details, I shan’t speculate as to the severity of the issue. However, drafting him right now does require some guts.
17. Stevie Johnson, BUF
Analysis: Johnson became Ryan Fitzpatrick’s top target in Buffalo, and the duo electrified the fantasy world for period of time. He scored in five consecutive games between Weeks 3 through 8 (six total), recorded an 11-catch game against the bears in Week 9 and then obliterated the Bengals in Week 11 (137 yards and three touchdowns). Johnson caught three or more passes in 15 game and logged 10 receptions of at least 25 yards. He and Fitzpatrick are back for another round in 2011.
16. Dez Bryant, DAL
Analysis: Questions about Bryant’s maturity remain. He’s working to put those concerns aside by joining the Cowboys’ workouts.
Bryant has the physical skills to be a top-10 receiver as his game rounds out. He posted a fantastic run in the middle of his rookie season, scoring six touchdowns in a six-game stretch prior to sustaining his season-ending leg injury. Bryant has the ability to open things up downfield (seven catches of at least 25 yards) and can set up in the red zone.
The passing game is set up mighty well for Dallas, provided all the principals can stay healthy.
15. Marques Colston, NO
Analysis: In 2010, Colston earned his fourth 1,000-yard season in five NFL campaigns. He stayed relatively healthy (he had wrist and knee surgeries this offseason) and gutted through the campaign to generate an 84-reception, seven-touchdown season. Colston generated three 100-yard games (five with at least 80 yards) and scored his seven touchdowns during the seven-game stretch from Week 7 to Week 14.
We look back to 2007 to see Colston’s potential dominance (98 receptions for 1,202 yards and 11 touchdowns). Colston’s injuries and Drew Brees’ proficiency at spreading the ball around prevent me from projecting a return to those heights.
14. Brandon Marshall, MIA
Analysis: Despite horrid play last season under center, Marshall still amassed 86 receptions on 145 looks and logged his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season. Offensive inefficiency led to Marshall’s lowest touchdown total (three) since his rookie year in Denver. Marshall appeared in 14 games for the listless Dolphins.
The Dolphins bring back Marshall and Davone Bess while adding a deep speed threat in Edmund Gates.
13. DeSean Jackson, TBD
Analysis: The speedy receiver and returner earned his second consecutive 1,000-yard season as the chief downfield threat for Michael Vick. Jackson recorded 15 receptions of at least 25 yards in his 47 catches, including his ridiculous 91-yard grab against the Cowboys. In fact, Jackson earned 57.5% of his yardage total in four games.
12. Dwayne Bowe, KC
Analysis: Few wide receivers have produced a six-week stretch to rival Bowe’s brilliance between Weeks 6 and 12 last season (733 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns). Despite a decided lack of support in the receiving corps, Bowe still obliterated opposing defenses. He caught 72 passes for 1,162 yards, including 10 receptions of at least 25 yards.
The Chiefs addressed the wide receiver position in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft by selecting Jonathan Baldwin out of Pittsburgh and signing Steve Breaston in free agency. Their arrivals, combined with Jamaal Charles’ dominance out of the backfield, should create additional space for Bowe to operate.
11. Mike Williams, TB
Analysis: There were a lot of questions about Williams’ “heart” following his exit from Syracuse. He ended those thoughts with a fantastic rookie season as the top option for Josh Freeman. Williams caught four or more passes in 11 games and tied for fourth in the NFL with 11 touchdown receptions. He finished 36 yards shy of 1,000 for the season. Williams’ total of 129 targets ranked 13th, and he demonstrated great aptitude as a red zone beast with sneaky downfield speed (eight receptions of at least 25 yards). Look for the Buccaneers to open things up for Freeman and the passing game with Williams and fellow second-year receiver Arrelious Benn.
10. Vincent Jackson, SD
Analysis: Last season was a lost year for Jackson. He followed through with his holdout threat and appeared in only five games. In fact, Jackson immediately sustained an injury upon returning to the field. He completed the season with 14 receptions for 248 yards and demonstrated his potential dominance with a three-touchdown performance against the sinking 49ers.
Jackson averaged 63.5 receptions, 1,133 yards and eight touchdowns during the 2008 and 2009 seasons. He quickly signed his deal this time around to get back into the mix for the start of training camp. Jackson has top-tier potential in this potent San Diego offense and should crush the aforementioned two-year average.
9. Greg Jennings, GB
Analysis: Jennings earned his third consecutive season with at least 1,100 yards and matched his career high with 12 touchdown receptions. He averaged 79.1 yards per game, just 1.7 fewer yards per game than his career-best in 2008. Jennings logged 16 receptions of at least 25 yards. I suspect that his touchdown total dips from last year’s high, as goal-line opportunities may be siphoned off by returning stars Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley.
8. Mike Wallace, PIT
Analysis: Wallace posted a strong rookie campaign in 2009. He positively dominated cornerbacks while running past them as a sophomore in 2010. Seventeen of Wallace’s 60 receptions covered at least 25 yards, and he recorded a reception of at least 20 yards in 14 games. He finished the season with 1,257 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
He returns as the No. 1 option for Ben Roethlisberger alongside “Dancing” Hines Ward and emerging speedster Emmanuel Sanders. Wallace obviously benefits immensely from a full 16-game slate with his quarterback, though the Steelers’ backups performed much better than anyone could have anticipated during Roethlisberger’s 2010 suspension.
7. Miles Austin, DAL
Analysis: Austin started the season with a bang, producing three 100-yard games in his first four outings. He topped 60 yards in only four of the Cowboys’ final 12 games, though he scored five of his seven touchdowns with Jon Kitna under center. Nine of his 69 receptions covered at least 25 yards.
Austin returns to a potent Dallas passing game with a healthy Tony Romo back under center. If Romo stays upright and Dez Bryant becomes the player we anticipate he can be, Austin should see more one-on-one opportunities in 2011.
6. Reggie Wayne, IND
Analysis: The Indianapolis offense keeps churning along, provided that No. 16 stays upright. I don’t know how much I need to belabor the point. Wayne caught 111 passes in 2010, his third 100-reception season in the past four years. He posted the second-highest yardage total of his career (1,355) with nine receptions of at least 25 yards. Wayne averaged 11 targets per game.
It should be noted, however, that Wayne’s average of 12.2 yards per catch established a new career-low mark. Of course, that issue is secondary to lingering concerns about Peyton Manning’s health.
5. Hakeem Nicks, NYG
Analysis: Despite playing with a toe injury, Nicks experienced a fantastic breakout season in his sophomore campaign in 2010. He averaged 10 targets per game and caught four or more passes in 11 of his 13 appearances. Nicks produced four 100-yard games and scored 11 touchdowns. Nine of his receptions covered at least 25 yards.
Think of the upside here if Nicks can stay healthy and Manning remembers his team’s colors. I’m counting on it.
4. Calvin Johnson, DET
Analysis: The Lions are a team on the come in 2011. Johnson was the first building block, the foundation of a new world order in Detroit. Unfortunately, Johnson can’t block on the interior to keep Matthew Stafford upright. Johnson caught four or more passes in 12 games last season with 12 touchdowns (the 13th that didn’t count in Week 1). The arrival of speedster Titus Young as the third receiver to Johnson and Nate Burleson helps spread the field … not that it matters.
3. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
Analysis: I’m not going to write a book on Fitzgerald for this piece. He caught 90 passes for 1,137 yards despite pathetic play from the quarterback position. His streak of double-digit touchdown seasons ended at three, but he was hardly to blame. Fitzgerald caught three or more passes in 14 games, including seven games with at least 80 receiving yards. He recorded nine catches of at least 25 yards.
Kevin Kolb has to be an upgrade over last season’s debacle, right?
Todd Heap offers the Cardinals their first receiving threat at the tight end position. The lone question remaining is whether Andre Roberts and Early Doucet will be ready to up their games or if the team adds a veteran during the preseason.
2. Andre Johnson, HOU
Analysis: There aren’t enough adjectives to describe the athleticism and sheer dominance of Johnson. Throw the double-team at him. Bring the safety over the top. It’s not going to matter. Johnson is going to snag the ball out of the air, take the hit and signal for a first down.
Johnson averaged 10.6 targets and 6.6 receptions per game in 2010 (six or more receptions in eight of his 13 games played). His attempt to extend his streak of 100-reception seasons to three was halted because of an ankle injury. Johnson makes the difficult catches to move the chains and can also make the big play downfield (12 catches of at least 25 yards). To take a longer view on things, Johnson has been the poster child of efficiency and consistency during the past five seasons. He’s averaged 6.6 receptions and 90.8 receiving yards per game.
Improvements to the Houston defense will slow the pinball-like offensive numbers of the offense to some degree.
1. Roddy White, ATL
Analysis: White amassed a ridiculous number of targets in 2010 (179), led the league with 115 receptions and posted a double-digit touchdown total for the second straight season. He has recorded at least 83 receptions and 1,153 yards in four consecutive seasons despite the lack of a high-level No. 2 receiver opposite him (I know that Tony Gonzalez has been there the past two seasons). White welcomes speedy rookie Julio Jones to the mix for 2011, and early reports on White have been glowing.
