Stanford Cardinal

WhatIfSports 2016 Pac-12 preview: Projected standings and game-by-game predictions

Published Dec. 24, 2016 8:29 p.m. ET

Jake Westrich

Which team will be crowned Pac-12 champions? WhatIfSports.com played every game of the 2016 season 101 times to generate game-by-game predictions for each Pac-12 team, as well as projected conference standings.

All games were played using WhatIfSports' college football simulation engine, which uses its highly sophisticated algorithms to simulate every play of the game. The conference standings table displays the most likely outcome for each team, whereas the team-by-team schedules display absolute records.

2016 Pac-12 Projected Conference Standings
North	W	L	Overall Record
Stanford Cardinal	7	2	10-2
Washington Huskies	6	3	9-3
Oregon Ducks	5	4	8-4
Washington State Cougars	5	4	8-4
California Golden Bears	4	5	7-5
Oregon State Beavers	2	7	3-9
South	W	L	Overall Record
UCLA Bruins	6	3	8-4
USC Trojans	5	4	7-5
Utah Utes	5	4	8-4
Arizona State Sun Devils	4	5	6-6
Arizona Wildcats	3	6	5-7
Colorado Buffaloes	2	7	4-8

Three Storylines

Oregon Comes Down to Earth

After seven straight seasons of double-digit win totals, Oregon slipped to 9-4 last year, ending the season with an overtime loss to TCU in the Alamo Bowl. Is the setback an aberration or is the Oregon program heading in the wrong direction? The Ducks begin the year ranked 24th in the AP poll, their lowest preseason ranking since 2007 and their first outside the Top 10 since 2010.

Can Christian McCaffrey Do It Again?

McCaffrey's 2015 season was one of the best in the history of college football. He broke Barry Sanders' 27-year-old record for all-purpose yards, compiling 3,496 yards. Sanders totaled 3,249 yards during his 1988 Heisman season. McCaffrey was denied the Heisman Trophy last year, finishing second in voting to Alabama's Derrick Henry.

College Football Is Back in the State of Washington

The Washington Huskies haven't won 10 games since an 11-1 season in 2000, but voters have the Huskies ranked 14th in the AP preseason poll. Meanwhile, across the state in Pullman, the Washington State Cougars won nine games in 2015, the program's most since a 10-3 season in 2003.

Three Players to Watch

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC

Smith-Schuster led the Pac-12 in reception yardage in 2015, hauling in 89 receptions for 1,454 yards and 10 scores. He'll be working with a new quarterback this year though, as Cody Kessler will be suiting up for the Cleveland Browns.

RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford

McCaffrey's 2015 season by the numbers: 337 rush attempts for 2,019 yards (6.0 yards per carry) and eight touchdowns; 45 receptions for 645 yards (14.3 yards per catch) and five touchdowns; 37 kickoff returns for 1,070 yards (28.9 yards per return) and one touchdown; 15 punt returns for 130 yards (8.7 yards per return) and one touchdown; 2-for-3 passing for 39 yards and two touchdowns.

RB Royce Freeman, Oregon

Freeman is the latest in a line of talented running backs at Oregon. He followed up a freshman campaign in which he ran for 1,365 yards with an even better sophomore year. Freeman's 1,836 rushing yards were fourth-most in the country last season. He showed some talent as a receiver as well, catching 26 passes for 348 yards.

Three Games to Watch

Stanford @ Washington: Friday, September 30

If preseason rankings hold true, this late-September matchup between Stanford and Washington could go a long way in determining the winner of the North division. It would be unwise to count out Oregon, and Washington State is an up-and-comer, but the Cardinal and Huskies appear to be the teams to beat.

Stanford @ Oregon: Saturday, November 12

Stanford and Oregon have produced a number of memorable games, most recently last season's 38-36 thriller in which unranked Oregon upset No. 7 Stanford and spoiled the Cardinal's College Football Playoff hopes. The rematch in Eugene this season will be must-see theater and will showcase the conferences two best running backs in McCaffrey and Freeman.

USC @ UCLA: Saturday, November 19

The two LA-based schools are the favorites in the Pac-12 South. UCLA was 5-4 in conference play last year, but brings back talented quarterback Josh Rosen. The Bruins will be one of six USC opponents ranked in the preseason Top 25, a group headlined by No. 1 Alabama.

To view a team's game-by-game predictions, select the school below:

2016 Arizona Wildcats
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	BYU Cougars	45.5	27.6-29.4
2	Grambling State Tigers	95.0	47.4-9.3
3	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	67.3	35.1-27.4
4	Washington Huskies	38.6	28.0-30.9
5	@UCLA Bruins	44.6	27.1-30.3
6	@Utah Utes	36.6	24.8-27.9
7	USC Trojans	40.6	29.7-31.6
9	Stanford Cardinal	34.7	27.1-32.9
10	@Washington State Cougars	40.6	30.1-34.2
11	Colorado Buffaloes	59.4	29.2-26.8
12	@Oregon State Beavers	65.3	30.6-26.0
13	Arizona State Sun Devils	51.5	30.4-29.2

2016 Arizona State Sun Devils
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	95.0	47.9-7.9
2	Texas Tech Red Raiders	56.4	32.0-30.5
3	@UTSA Roadrunners	64.4	30.9-24.8
4	California Golden Bears	49.5	29.5-29.7
5	@USC Trojans	44.6	27.4-30.0
6	UCLA Bruins	41.6	25.8-29.8
7	@Colorado Buffaloes	65.3	29.1-25.0
8	Washington State Cougars	48.5	32.4-33.5
9	@Oregon Ducks	48.5	30.8-31.9
11	Utah Utes	50.5	24.4-25.5
12	@Washington Huskies	42.6	26.4-28.5
13	@Arizona Wildcats	48.5	29.2-30.4

2016 California Golden Bears
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	@Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	71.3	33.3-25.4
2	@San Diego State Aztecs	49.5	29.6-28.9
3	Texas Longhorns	49.5	28.6-28.7
4	@Arizona State Sun Devils	50.5	29.7-29.5
5	Utah Utes	44.6	27.0-28.6
6	@Oregon State Beavers	60.4	30.1-25.0
8	Oregon Ducks	50.5	30.4-30.8
9	@USC Trojans	38.6	29.2-32.2
10	Washington Huskies	51.5	29.4-30.9
11	@Washington State Cougars	40.6	31.2-33.9
12	Stanford Cardinal	41.6	28.8-31.9
13	UCLA Bruins	47.5	28.6-31.9

2016 Colorado Buffaloes
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Colorado State Rams	60.4	30.6-28.0
2	Idaho State Bengals	95.0	44.1-6.7
3	@Michigan Wolverines	24.8	23.0-31.2
4	@Oregon Ducks	36.6	26.5-31.4
5	Oregon State Beavers	60.4	27.9-25.2
6	@USC Trojans	34.7	25.9-30.6
7	Arizona State Sun Devils	34.7	25.0-29.1
8	@Stanford Cardinal	26.7	23.6-32.2
10	UCLA Bruins	37.6	24.7-29.3
11	@Arizona Wildcats	40.6	26.8-29.2
12	Washington State Cougars	40.6	28.8-31.5
13	Utah Utes	31.7	22.8-26.1

2016 Oregon Ducks
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	UC Davis Aggies	95.0	54.6-6.7
2	Virginia Cavaliers	55.4	30.7-28.6
3	@Nebraska Cornhuskers	56.4	31.5-29.2
4	Colorado Buffaloes	63.4	31.4-26.5
5	@Washington State Cougars	46.5	33.6-33.1
6	Washington Huskies	46.5	29.8-31.6
8	@California Golden Bears	49.5	30.8-30.4
9	Arizona State Sun Devils	51.5	31.9-30.8
10	@USC Trojans	45.5	31.4-31.3
11	Stanford Cardinal	47.5	30.7-32.4
12	@Utah Utes	58.4	29.2-28.0
13	@Oregon State Beavers	70.3	32.5-26.3

2016 Oregon State Beavers
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	@Minnesota Golden Gophers	43.6	25.6-26.8
3	Idaho State Bengals	95.0	44.9-7.5
4	Boise State Broncos	30.7	25.6-29.9
5	@Colorado Buffaloes	39.6	25.2-27.9
6	California Golden Bears	39.6	25.0-30.1
7	Utah Utes	34.7	23.1-27.2
8	@Washington Huskies	28.7	22.6-30.5
9	Washington State Cougars	39.6	28.6-33.0
10	@Stanford Cardinal	18.8	23.1-33.4
11	@UCLA Bruins	30.7	25.6-32.4
12	Arizona Wildcats	34.7	26.0-30.6
13	Oregon Ducks	29.7	26.3-32.5

2016 Stanford Cardinal
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Kansas State Wildcats	55.4	28.0-24.9
3	USC Trojans	64.4	31.0-28.4
4	@UCLA Bruins	57.4	30.6-27.3
5	@Washington Huskies	54.5	29.7-29.3
6	Washington State Cougars	61.4	34.0-29.7
7	@Notre Dame Fighting Irish	54.5	30.0-28.6
8	Colorado Buffaloes	73.3	32.2-23.6
9	@Arizona Wildcats	65.3	32.9-27.1
10	Oregon State Beavers	81.2	33.4-23.1
11	@Oregon Ducks	52.5	32.4-30.7
12	@California Golden Bears	58.4	31.9-28.8
13	Rice Owls	80.2	34.0-24.7

2016 UCLA Bruins
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	@Texas A&M Aggies	43.6	27.0-28.8
2	UNLV Rebels	72.3	32.4-25.5
3	@BYU Cougars	57.4	28.4-26.3
4	Stanford Cardinal	41.6	27.3-30.6
5	Arizona Wildcats	55.4	30.3-27.1
6	@Arizona State Sun Devils	58.4	29.8-25.8
7	@Washington State Cougars	59.4	32.2-30.3
8	Utah Utes	52.5	25.8-27.2
10	@Colorado Buffaloes	62.4	29.3-24.7
11	Oregon State Beavers	69.3	32.4-25.6
12	USC Trojans	40.6	30.4-31.7
13	@California Golden Bears	52.5	31.9-28.6

2016 USC Trojans
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	@Alabama Crimson Tide	37.6	24.5-27.8
2	Utah State Aggies	65.3	32.3-27.5
3	@Stanford Cardinal	35.6	28.4-31.0
4	@Utah Utes	56.4	28.1-26.2
5	Arizona State Sun Devils	55.4	30.0-27.4
6	Colorado Buffaloes	65.3	30.6-25.9
7	@Arizona Wildcats	59.4	31.6-29.7
9	California Golden Bears	61.4	32.2-29.2
10	Oregon Ducks	54.5	31.3-31.4
11	@Washington Huskies	40.6	28.0-29.8
12	@UCLA Bruins	59.4	31.7-30.4
13	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	50.5	30.9-30.7

2016 Utah Utes
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Southern Utah Thunderbirds	95	46.5-9.1
2	BYU Cougars	49.5	24.5-24.7
3	@San Jose State Spartans	66.3	29.2-24
4	USC Trojans	43.6	26.2-28.1
5	@California Golden Bears	52.5	28.6-27
6	Arizona Wildcats	63.4	27.9-24.8
7	@Oregon State Beavers	65.3	27.2-23.1
8	@UCLA Bruins	47.5	27.2-25.8
9	Washington Huskies	32.7	23.5-26.1
11	@Arizona State Sun Devils	49.5	25.5-24.4
12	Oregon Ducks	41.6	28-29.2
13	@Colorado Buffaloes	68.3	26.1-22.8

2016 Washington Huskies
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	78.2	33.3-23.8
2	Idaho Vandals	85.1	35.6-21.7
3	Portland State Vikings	95.0	49.4-6.5
4	@Arizona Wildcats	60.4	30.9-28.0
5	Stanford Cardinal	45.5	29.3-29.7
6	@Oregon Ducks	53.5	31.6-29.8
8	Oregon State Beavers	71.3	30.5-22.6
9	@Utah Utes	67.3	26.1-23.5
10	@California Golden Bears	48.5	30.9-29.4
11	USC Trojans	58.4	29.8-28.0
12	Arizona State Sun Devils	56.4	28.5-26.4
13	@Washington State Cougars	60.4	32.3-29.1

2016 Washington State Cougars
Week	Opponent	Win%	Avg Score
1	Eastern Washington Eagles	95.0	51.9-7.7
2	@Boise State Broncos	54.5	32.7-31.0
3	Idaho Vandals	79.2	37.2-26.4
5	Oregon Ducks	52.5	33.1-33.6
6	@Stanford Cardinal	38.6	29.7-34.0
7	UCLA Bruins	40.6	30.3-32.2
8	@Arizona State Sun Devils	51.5	33.5-32.4
9	@Oregon State Beavers	60.4	33.0-28.6
10	Arizona Wildcats	59.4	34.2-30.1
11	California Golden Bears	59.4	33.9-31.2
12	@Colorado Buffaloes	59.4	31.5-28.8
13	Washington Huskies	39.6	29.1-32.3