Like the rest of every red blooded American I watch football. Last night we were treated to an outstanding game played at its highest level between the Patriots & Panthers. Up until the final play of regulation there was nothing curious about a well-played (and more importantly) well-officiated football game. It was in the game’s final play that I saw the true nature of some recreational bettors and conspiracy theorists rear their ugly heads. Talk of treachery rained down on social media like the injustice at Bank of America Stadium was akin to what unfolded in the Octagon Saturday night. Are athletic events, either college or pro, ever fixed? Of course there are plenty of instances past and present but to insinuate conspiracy is what kept the Patriots from having 1st and Goal at the 1 is ridiculous. Much like all of you I would have loved a comprehensive explanation of why the flag was picked up without explanation. Fans have a reason to be irate, especially those who live and die with their teams but bettors crying foul need to realize breaks like that even out over the course of the season. If you’re not mature enough to handle an outcome in sports betting no matter which side you were on than you really shouldn’t be betting in the first place...and this comes from someone who had UGA on Saturday. On to more important things…
For the Alabama fan foaming at the mouth seeing their team listed behind Florida St in our Vegas poll understand that if the national championship were played this week you would open as 4 pt favorites. However, a lot of that number is attributed to the coaching edge and experience component of the equation rather than on field talent. Books wouldn't dare open the game close to PK for fear they'd be drowned under a deluge of Alabama money. The computers continue to upgrade FSU’s overall profile on the strength of their gaudy statistical dominance against inferior scheduling. Computer ratings, even our Vegas poll, serve as a guide to start the oddsmaking process rather than a black and white system for creating opening lines. What we are learning from the power poll is that the gap between the top team in the land and their closest competitor is definitely narrowing as the season winds down.
| Vegas | BCS | AP | Coaches | |
| 1 | Florida St | Alabama | Alabama | Alabama |
| 2 | Alabama | Florida St | Florida St | Florida St |
| 3 | Oregon | Ohio St | Baylor | Ohio St |
| 4 | Baylor | Baylor | Ohio St | Baylor |
| 5 | Stanford | Oregon | Oregon | Oregon |
| 6 | Ohio St | Auburn | Auburn | Clemson |
| 7 | LSU | Clemson | Clemson | Auburn |
| 8 | Wisconsin | Missouri | Missouri | Missouri |
| 9 | Georgia | Stanford | Texas A&M | Oklahoma St |
| 10 | Texas A&M | Oklahoma St | Stanford | Texas A&M |
| Notable Absences | ||||
| T-11 | Clemson | |||
| T-13 | Arizona St | |||
| T-15 | Oklahoma St | |||
| T-16 | Auburn | |||
| T-23 | Missouri |
I know what a lot of you are thinking; how the hell is UGA #9 in your poll? Well for everyone that asks that question at the same time they believe Auburn should be ranked in the top 10 they've answered their own question. Without one of the more improbable 4th down conversions in league history, UGA would have gone on the road and won in a hostile environment Saturday. Georgia's current record makes it hard to validate them as a top 10 football team yet their overall talent and strong computer metrics keep them there. Arizona St, a recent riser in our poll, actually fell out of the top 10 despite a double digit win against Oregon St illustrating that final scores rarely tell the whole story. They'll have a chance to get back into the top 10 with a win this weekend at UCLA which would put a stranglehold on the Pac 12 South.
Much of what oddsmakers do before the season is establish power ratings they trust. One game, or even a handful of them, won’t change our entire perception the same way it does for the casual fan or media. Understanding the process explains why Auburn and Missouri, despite extremely successful seasons thus far, still don’t find themselves anywhere close to cracking the Vegas top 10. Auburn continues to defy expectations to the delight of bettors considering they’re racking up covers at a blistering rate (9-2 ATS in 2013). Last weekend not withstanding, there’s been nothing fluky about the Tigers on field performances behind a light's out rushing attack. Auburn is now tied for 16th and their current post explains why the look ahead line released by the LVH on Monday has Alabama listed as 15.5 point favorites for the Iron Bowl.
As far as those Tigers hailing from the SEC East…Missouri checks in at 23 this week. Oddly enough this is 3 spots behind Ole Miss yet Mizzou’s listed as a FG favorite for Saturday’s game in Oxford. The casual gambler immediately asks how is this even possible? My response: the line accounts for Gary Pinkel’s change in QB (Mauk to Franklin as a definite upgrade) while the other factor is that books understanding the public love for Mizzou (Tigers attracting 80% of the betting tickets early). Always remember there’s a reason we don’t decide outcomes on paper meaning Missouri can complain to everyone about how disrespected they feel in our poll but by winning their final 2 regular season games they can silence every critic, myself included, once and for all.
Strike A Pose...
Here are your current odds to win the Heisman from the offshore world (Please note there are no Vegas books taking bets on who will win the award)
Jameis Winston : -230
Johnny Manziel: +250
AJ McCarron: +700
Marcus Mariotta: +1500
