We love numbers at JABO. We love explaining them, we love sharing them and we love using them to most accurately predict what should happen in a career, a season or even in a game. But what is so beautiful about this great game of baseball is that upsets happen daily. Not just in game wins but even within the game. Matt Adams delivered a near inconceivable upset in Game 4 of the Cardinals-Dodgers NLDS, one that sent the Cardinals to the NLCS and one that deserves recognition.
Adams is a left-handed hitter. In his career he has batted .197 vs. left-handed pitchers; in 2014 he stayed within his career history and hit .190 versus southpaws. We know who Adams is versus lefties. He is a pull power guy, which means in left-left matchups he doesn't stay on the ball very well and his best chance of getting a hit is pulling a mistake to the right side of the field. A 19.7% chance historically.
Adams doesn't get any better versus the left-handed curveball. For his career he has posted a .111 batting average versus the pitch. He has hit six homers versus left-handed pitchers in his career (203 plate appearances) and three of those have been off of curveballs. Those six homers came off of Jerry Blevins, Mike Dunn, Mike Gonzalez, Franklin Morales, Yohan Flande and Justin Wilson. Two of the six were at Coors Field.
Those guys are good pitchers, not great. None possesses the nasty weapon that is the Clayton Kershaw curveball.
I have said more than once on television that Kershaw has the best curveball in baseball. I use my eyes to tell me that. The pitch has incredible break but also incredible finish. By that I mean the rotation is so tight that when it is crossing the plate it always seems to finish even further down than anticipated.
In Kershaw's seven regular seasons, opposing batters have hit .123 with one homer vs. his curve. That one homer was to a right-handed hitter. That means in nearly 1,400 innings Kershaw has NEVER allowed a homer to a left-handed hitter. In 2014 the batting average against was .118 with a K:BB ratio of 72:1 on at-bats ending with the pitch. Absorb all of that for a minute.
Lefties have slugged .175 versus Kershaw's curveball in his career, the lowest of any of his three main pitches. They just don't drive the pitch for extra bases at all.
So, naturally, Adams and his career .130 ISO versus left-handed pitchers, hit a homer, off a curveball, versus the greatest left-handed pitcher of this generation with an off-the-charts curveball. Because of course he did.
Kershaw did hang it, though.
