Giddiness ensues, as fans ponder the approaching 2011 season. “Hope springs eternal,” they say.
That’s also the mantra of the fantasy world. Last year’s championship runs or failed efforts are left in the rearview mirror. We learn from those experiences, to be sure, but there’s always a need to tinker with the formula and find the next crop of superstars on your road to dominance.
In this column, I’m examining some potential difference-makers in the outfield. Some of the players have already made their mark and captivated fantasy owners to some degree. I’m merely calling on them to build toward the next level.
Drew Stubbs, Cincinnati
Stubbs isn’t unknown following his strong 2010 season, but I’m not sure that he’s receiving the appropriate amount of preseason hype. So, let me pick up a sign.
Stubbs batted only .255 overall, but recorded a fantastic .379 BABIP with tremendous numbers in the other four standard categories (22 home runs, 77 RBI, 30 stolen bases and 91 runs scored).
The lone hole is his game in 2010 was his high-strikeout rate (of one-third of his at-bats). If that number diminishes, Stubbs becomes a five-category hero in a loaded lineup.
I do anticipate a mild regression in his power numbers. Stubbs had never hit more than 12 home runs in a minor-league season (12 at Class-A in 2007). I shan’t expect a repeat of his 22 home runs.
Jose Tabata, Pittsburgh
Tabata produced a strong .299 batting average with 29 extra-base hits (including 21 doubles), 35 RBI and 19 stolen bases in 26 attempts. He was particularly strong at home in PNC Park, where he batted 75 points higher than his road mark. Tabata reportedly put on 10-15 pounds this offseason to help bolster his low-power production from 2010. He hit 21 doubles last season, but cleared the fence only four times.
Seth Smith, Colorado
Smith nearly replicated every aspect of his 2009 season last year except for the batting average category. His power numbers were essentially unchanged (with two additional home runs and three fewer RBI), but his batting average dropped 47 points. That 47-point drop occurred despite no change in his contact rate. As such, fantasy owners and Rockies fans can reasonably assume that a return to a batting average in line with his .271 mark is in the offing.
The biggest concern for Smith entering 2011 is the disparity of his home-road splits. Smith was terrible on the road, batting an anemic .209 away from Coors Field (and .284 at home). His road woes may cost him at-bats and open up a platoon situation.
Domonic Brown, Philadelphia
Brown demonstrated stat potential in the minor leagues and produced in all five standard categories. The outfielder, 23, batted .327 in 93 minor league games last season with 22 doubles, 20 home runs, 68 RBI and 17 stolen bases.
Brown struck out 24 times in his 62 major league at-bats, so his contact rate clearly needs to improve. He’ll get his shot this spring in one of the best lineups and home yards in the game. It’s certainly a fantastic learning environment.
Logan Morrison, Florida
Morrison got the late July callup and appeared in 62 games for the Marlins. He batted .283 with 29 extra-base hits (including 20 doubles), 18 RBI and a 51/41 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Morrison is just age 23, and has great potential for growth as he hits his power prime. I know you fear his home park, but he’s a career .291 batter (during five minor league seasons) with great gap power now.
Desmond Jennings, Tampa Bay
In five minor-league seasons, Jennings batted a composite .299 with a high doubles count (92) and 171 stolen bases. Most importantly in the short-term, Jennings registered a .384 on-base percentage and nearly a 1-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Jennings hits to the gaps and stretches singles to doubles. While he may eventually translate those gap hits to additional home runs down the line, Jennings stands as a strong three-category contributor right now with regular at-bats.
Travis Snider, Toronto
Snider missed an extended period with a wrist injury in 2010 and was limited to just 82 games. He hit 14 home runs and 20 doubles with 32 RBI in 298 at-bats (one extra-base hit per 8.8 at-bats). Snider stole six bases and batted 14 points higher than his 2009 total. The only knock on him is that he strikes out nearly four times per walk. Snider’s power potential is immense.
Cameron Maybin, Florida
Maybin batted a dismal .234 in his 82 games for the Marlins last season, but he did register 18 extra-base hits (including eight home runs) with 28 RBI and nine stolen bases. He did bat .342 on balls put in play, though his strikeout rate leaves you concerned.
I’m still in disbelief that Maybin enters spring training at just age 23. Seriously, he’s been on the radar forever and turns 24 at the start of the regular season. If Maybin can cut down on his strikeout rate, there’s 20-20 potential here.
Jordan Schafer, Atlanta
Schafer appeared in 50 games for the Braves as the starting center fielder before hand injuries sidelined him. He batted .204 with 10 extra-base hits (including two home runs) and eight RBI in 167 at-bats.
Schafer was a solid five-category performer in the Atlanta minor-league system prior to his promotion to the Braves in 2009. He struggled to a composite .201 batting average in 76 minor league games last season. If Schafer is past his wrist and hand injuries, perhaps he can emerge as a post-hype star.
Brennan Boesch, Detroit
The 6-foot-6 left-handed batter lit the fantasy world on fire with a monster first half in which he batted .342 with 12 home runs, 19 doubles and 49 RBI. He then crashed and burned in the second half, batting .163 with two home runs in just 21 fewer at-bats than his first-half barrage.
I’m cautiously optimistic that Boesch learned from his Jekyll-Hyde season and performs more consistently in an improved Detroit lineup. He’ll need to improve his defense and .219 road batting average to appease Jim Leyland.
Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee
Gomez isn’t going to give you power production. That point is fairly well established at this juncture. He may slap some doubles, but his home run and RBI production will leave you wanting. Still, I was encouraged by signs of growth at the plate (he batted .291 in 86 second-half at-bats) and stole 21 bases in 24 attempts. If Gomez can build on his close to the 2010 season and keep his strikeout rate down, he may emerge as a solid three-category performer ahead of sluggers Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.
Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City
Cain was dealt to Kansas City as part of the Zach Greinke deal. In six minor league seasons, he’s batted .291 with a fantastic stolen base total. I’m encouraged by his .402 on-base percentage between Double-A and Triple-A last season and his improving batting eye (45 walks against 69 strikeouts). There’s three-category potential here.
Nick Evans, New York Mets
Evans rolls into camp as a man without a starting roster spot as of now, as Angel Pagan slated to start in right field. I’m putting him on the radar following his strong minor-league showing last season. Evans played a total of 125 games between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Buffalo. He batted a composite .300 with 44 doubles, 23 home runs and 80 RBI.
David Murphy, Texas
Murphy doesn’t have an everyday role as of this writing, but I’m putting him on the board for two reasons. First, he’ll get his fair share of at-bats because of injuries and rest days for outfielders Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton. Second, he stands to gain if/when the Rangers part ways with long-tenured infielder Michael Young.
Murphy has produced well as a part-time player in Texas for years. Last season, he batted a career-best .291 with 12 home runs, 26 doubles, 65 RBI and 14 stolen bases. He improved his contact rate and posted a strong second half (hit .311 with nine home runs, 41 RBI and 10 SB).
Michael Saunders, Seattle
Saunders demonstrated strong power potential with 23 extra-base hits (including 10 home runs) in his 289 at-bats for the Mariners last season. Unfortunately, he also struck out 84 times and registered a .297 BABIP.
I’ll be curious to watch his adjustments in his sophomore campaign. Saunders batted .310 at Triple-A Tacoma in 2009 and had been a stolen-base threat early in his minor-league career (had six for the Mariners in 2010). He’s not draft-worthy, but I’ll toss him up as a deep sleeper candidate.
