Major League Baseball

Steals? Who needs 'em

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 9:51 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

foxsports

Okay, so these aren’t your grandpappy’s Los Angeles Dodgers. Or his Brooklyn Dodgers, either. Jackie Robinson and Maury Wills and their legendary derring-do on the bases? Not this year, sports fans...

The Dodgers have stolen only nine bases in their 37 games, which means they’re on pace for 39 steals all season. They’ve also been caught stealing 13 times. So if their percentage accurately reflects their collective ability, they’re smart to eschew the running game.

But what makes all this particularly surprising is that just last year the Dodgers led the National League in steals, with 138. Pretty good percentage, too; they were caught only 50 times. The general assumption is that 70 percent is (roughly) the break-even point, and last year the Dodgers’ were at 73 percent. Not great but decent enough, especially in today’s low-scoring environment.

For sure, a great deal of the difference this season is due to personnel. Last season, Dee Gordon (64), Carl Crawford (23), Hanley Ramirez (14), Yasiel Puig (11) and Matt Kemp (8) accounted for 120 of those 138 steals.

Well, Gordon and Ramirez and Kemp are gone, while both Crawford and Puig have both spent significant time on the injured list and have accounted for exactly zero steals between them. Gordon’s and Ramirez’s replacements, Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins, have combined for five steals. Kemp’s replacement (more or less) Joc Pederson, is heading for around eight steals, same as Kemp.

Of course, the punch line is that the Dodgers have been a tremendous offensive club this season. They’re second in scoring, and first in both on-base and slugging percentage despite the absence of Puig, arguably their best player, for most of the season.

We might return to the Dodgers in a moment. I do feel compelled to mention that they’re hardly alone in their lack of interest in stealing bases. The Dodgers do rank last in the National League with their nine steals, but the Nationals have only 10.

Uh, remember when I said the Dodgers are second in the league in scoring? You get one guess for who’s first.

Yeah. The Nationals.

The same Nationals, by the way, who finished sixth in the league last season with 101 steals. And their success rate was even better than the Dodgers: 81 percent! But Ian Desmond and Denard Span haven’t been running nearly as much, and Anthony Rendon hasn’t been running at all. Fourth outfielder Michael Taylor actually leads the club with four steals and six attempts.

Did I mention that the Nationals and Dodgers rank first and second in the league in scoring?

Okay, good. Just checking.

Not that it’s all peaches and herbs for the station-to-station teams. The White Sox have stolen only seven bases all season, and are last in the American League in scoring. The Orioles have stolen only 10, and are a tick below average in scoring.

There’s nothing inherently good about not stealing. It’s just that stealing bases is probably the least important statistic that people actually talk about. Batting average, doubles, home runs, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, catcher interference, reached on error, high fives after “productive” outs ... they’re all more important than stealing bases.

Well, almost all of ‘em anyway. Stealing bases is good if you can do it, and if the Dodgers and Nationals could do it, I bet they would. But it seems they can’t, not this spring anyway. So instead they’ll just keep getting on base and hitting home runs and scoring runs and winning baseball games. Lot and lots of baseball games.

Really, the Dodgers’ figure is notable largely because ... well, because they’re the Dodgers, with their history of pitching well and running fast and winning a bunch of 3-2 games. Historically speaking, it’s hardly uncommon for a team to finish a season with around 40 steals. In 1982, the Twins stole 38 bases all season. In 1993, the Yankees stole 39 bases and were caught 35 times. In 1957, the Washington Senators (the Twins’ forebears) stole thirteen bases all season. And were caught 38 times (we can guess that many of those were inning-ending, strike-‘em-out, throw-‘em-out plays). In 1961, the Yankees went 109-53 while stealing 28 bases. Just 10 years ago, the A’s stole 31 bases and won 88 games. Just last year, the Orioles stole only 44 bases and they turned out okay.

You don’t really want to be slow, because that means fewer doubles and triples and infield hits, and because it means a lot more fly balls and line drives that don’t get turned into outs. But the Dodgers are second in the league in doubles and third in park-adjusted defensive efficiency. They’ll turn out okay, too.

share

Get more from Major League Baseball Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

Major League Baseball