Stock rising
QB: Matthew Stafford, Lions
Stafford has bounced back from a forgettable November with a dexterous display thus far in December. After torching the Raiders for 391 yards and four touchdowns on 29-of-52 passing, the former first overall pick has tossed for over 1,000 yards and found the end zone seven times in three contests on the month. The men from Motor City have exploitable passing defenses on the remaining slate in San Diego (surrendering the third-most touchdowns in the AFC) and Green Bay (conceding the most passing yards per game in the NFC), so roll with Stafford the final two weeks.
RB: C.J. Spiller, Bills
Sunday’s soiree against the Dolphins proved to be a coming-out party for Buffalo’s 2010 first-round selection. In relief of the injured Fred Jackson, Spiller accumulated 167 total yards (12 carries, 91 yards; nine receptions, 76 yards) and made two excursions to pay dirt in the Bills’ losing effort to Miami. The nine catches were especially refreshing to those in PPR leagues, as Spiller’s prowess in the passing game has long been pontificated but has failed to translate in the fantasy forum. Besides earning must-start status against Denver this week, the Buffalo back is now worth monitoring as a “keeper” for the 2012 season. Yet even Spiller’s fantastic foray couldn’t surpass…
RB: Reggie Bush, Dolphins
Count me as one of the doubters of the Dolphins’ offseason acquisition of Bush, as I thought the USC product’s pigskin proficiency was best suited in his hybrid-receiver role in the Saints’ offensive strategy (a vocation that Darren Sproles has filled admirably). Bush has proved his critics wrong, showcasing his skills as a competent rusher in the traditional mold, owning a 5.0 yards-per-carry figure on the season. This mark has been aided by a dominating December, a sentiment that was upheld by Week 15’s performance of 203 rushing yards in Miami’s 30-23 victory. Daniel Thomas might be the future of the South Beach backfield, but Bush has rightful claim to the present’s throne.
WR: Torrey Smith, Ravens
Smith’s production of six receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown was the lone bright spot in Baltimore’s no-show in San Diego Sunday night. The output was Smith’s third solid showing in the last five games, and the rookie out of Maryland now has 770 yards and seven touchdowns in the past 12 outings. Speaking of no-shows, can we officially change Joe Flacco’s name to “Joe FlaccNOOOO!!!” to commemorate his atrocious execution during the fantasy homestretch? In his last four games, the Baltimore signal caller has just 772 yards with five touchdowns and four turnovers. Although, to be fair, if you were counting on Flacco for fantasy fruition, you probably weren’t going to win your league, anyway.
WR: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Raiders,
I’ve preached for the last two months that trusting a Raiders receiver is a dangerous fantasy endeavor, as the team’s depth and Carson Palmer’s continued assimilation had led to inconsistent production from the position. Yet a rash of injuries has correlated to DHB as a primary target in the Oakland passing game, illustrated in Heyward-Bey’s haul of eight catches for 155 yards and a score against the Lions yesterday. Owned in just 28.3 percent of fantasy leagues, Heyward-Bey is a viable option for those in search of late-season replacements.
TE: Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
Sure, Hernandez’s career-day of nine receptions for 129 yards and a touchdown is what’s grabbing the attention of fantasy owners. However, closer examination reveals an extended period of excellence from the player known as the other New England tight end, with Hernandez posting 27 balls for 318 yards in his past four games. Wes Welker is dealing with knee issues, which should translate to sustained success for the second-year man out of Florida against Miami this weekend.
DEF: Seattle Seahawks
Fact: after Sunday’s conquest of Chicago (two defensive touchdowns, four interceptions, four sacks, fumble recovery), the Seahawks are the fourth-ranked defense in standard fantasy formats. Additional fact: Seattle is owned in less than 30 percent of FOXSports.com leagues. Not sayin’, just sayin’.
Stock regressing
QB: Eli Manning, Giants
At least this puts an end to the “same echelon as Tom Brady” discussion.
Admittedly, that’s not the fairest statement on the Giants field general, as Manning has put together a commendable campaign of 4,362 yards and 25 touchdowns. Granted, he does have 15 interceptions, but that’s a substantial cutback on his 25 picks from a season ago. Yet Manning owners will quickly point out that three of these passes to the wrong team derived from Week 15’s matchup versus Washington that, coupled with an absence from the end zone, doomed his proprietors. For those that survived this monstrosity, Manning’s Week 16 forecast isn’t friendly, as a date with the Jets looms.
RB: Kevin Smith, Lions
Smith’s ankle sprain reared its ugly head, limiting him to 43 yards on 15 carries against a Raiders team that is yielding the highest yards-per-carry mark in the AFC. Next week’s adversary, the Chargers, are in the bottom third of rush resistance in the league, but if Smith couldn’t capitalize in Oakland, don’t envision him remedying that affliction against San Diego.
RB: LeGarrette Blount, Buccaneers
Any goodwill that he maintained is obsolete, as Blount submitted his second contest of 25 rushing yards or less in three weeks. Accruing 977 yards in his last 11 outings of the 2010 season, the Buccaneers back was targeted as a breakout fantasy producer for the current campaign. Blount has been anything but, owning a pedestrian average of 63.2 yards per game. Josh Freeman’s erratic play hasn’t helped the process, and Blount was sidetracked with various ailments. Alas, the fantasy scoreboard doesn’t lie, and it reads disappointment for Blount.
WR: Wes Welker, Patriots
Alluded to above, Welker’s knee may be hindering the slot receiver more than originally believed. With the Patriots vying for home-field advantage in the AFC, expect Welker to continue to suit up, but as exemplified against the Broncos, this won’t necessarily mean the perennial Pro Bowler will endure as Brady’s primary bull’s eye. Welker is still a safe bet for four to six receptions this week against the Dolphins; however, anticipating a high yardage total is probably a pipe dream.
WR: Brandon Lloyd, Rams
Poor guy. Can we make sure Lloyd gets a decent signal caller next season while he still has a little juice left in the tank? I wouldn’t wish Kellen Clemens upon my worst enemy. Ok, maybe on Mike Shanahan. Even then, I wouldn’t enjoy the ensuing carnage.
TE: Greg Olsen, Panthers
After a rousing start, Olsen has been a major bummer during the second half of the season and had a scant five receptions in the last three games. The Buccaneers are so-so against opposing tight ends, yet with backup Jeremy Shockey getting some looks for the Panthers, Olsen is a high-risk, low-reward gamble for fantasy owners in Week 16.
DEF: Tennessee Titans
The Titans were a popular pickup this week against the previously winless Colts. Apropos, then, that Indianapolis puts up 27 on the scoreboard (21 coming against the Tennessee defense) without the Titans registering an interception or sack.
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