Our friends at 5Dimes have released their over/unders for SEC football.
Let's start with the predicted order of finish based on the over/unders:
SEC West
1. Alabama
9.5 over/under with the over at -145 and the under at +105
I'd take the over, but I don't think there's good value here.
2. Auburn
8.5 over/under with the over at -165 and the under at +125
I'd take the over but, again, there's no value here.
3. Ole Miss
8.5 over/under with the over at -110 and the under at -130
I figure the Rebels are underdogs at Alabama, at Auburn, and at Mississippi State. Then you toss in games that I think will be tough -- at Florida, at Memphis -- really, I'm serious -- Arkansas and LSU. That's seven loseable games. Are you confident the Rebels go 4-3 in these games? I'm not.
I like the under here because 8.5 is just so high of a starting number, but at -130 there's not much value.
4. Arkansas
8.5 over/under with the over at +120 and the under at -160
I think Arkansas will be 4-0 when they go to Tennessee on October 3rd. That's a massive swing game for both these teams. But even if the Razorbacks win that game, here's their next four SEC games: at Alabama, Auburn at Ole Miss, at LSU.
So in the space of five SEC games Arkansas goes to Tennessee, to Alabama, hosts Auburn and to Ole Miss and LSU.
Do you feel comfortable betting on the Razorbacks to win 9 games?
If forced to take a pick, I'd probably take the over here because the payoff is better, but I really wouldn't bet this.
5. LSU
8 over/under with the over at -125 and the under at -115
You start with four wins out of conference and then need to get to 4-4 in conference to push. I think a push is probably likely, but there isn't any value here on either side.
6. Texas A&M
7.5 over/under with the over at -215 and the under at +165
That opening Arizona State game is tricky, but assuming a win there you're 4-0 out of conference with should be likely SEC wins at Vanderbilt and home against South Carolina. That gets you to six wins. Unfortunately you still need two more wins to get to eight and cover this number. Even with a win over Mississippi State you're still likely underdogs at Arkansas, Alabama, at Ole Miss, Auburn and at LSU.
Now winning one of those games might well happen, but is it so likely that the number should be -215 on the over?
As much as I love Kevin Sumlin and the addition of John Chavis, I think the value play is the under here. This is one of the few where you get some juice actually in your direction.
7. Mississippi State
7 over/under with the over at -115 and the under at -125
You'd think that an over/under of seven for a team that went 10-2 last season and returns its starting quarterback would be cake. Especially when you start with wins in all four of its out of conference games. But, man, even this bet is difficult. Toss in Kentucky to get to five wins -- a likely small favorite over LSU at home -- and then the Bulldogs will probably be an underdog in their remaining six SEC games.
Getting to eight wins will be tough, I think a push is likely here.
SEC East
1. Georgia
9 over/under with the over at -135 and the under at -105
The Bulldogs should be 4-0 when Alabama comes to town on October 3rd. But that week is followed up by a trip to Tennessee. So things could swing in a hurry here. 4-0 could turn into 4-2 and second in the SEC East or it could be 6-0 and heavy playoff contenders. I tend to think the value play here is probably on the under, but nine seems about right.
The big question is, which game will Georgia Georgia in 2015?
2. Missouri
7.5 over/under with the over at -180 and the under at +104
The Tigers play a relatively tough -- and inexplicable -- road game at Arkansas State and also host BYU. That's a pretty difficult out of conference as these things go since both of these are projected bowl teams. But the road schedule is about as easy as you could hope for in the SEC: at Kentucky and at Vandy along with really tough games at Georgia and at Arkansas, both of which are likely losses.
I'd probably take the under because of the value, but this number seems about right.
3. Tennessee
7.5 over/under with the over at -140 and the under at +100
Tennessee's an enigma this year, the Vols should be much better, but the schedule is brutal. Oklahoma is the major out of conference foe, but at least that game is in Knoxville. You feel pretty good about five wins: Bowling Green, Western Carolina, Kentucky, North Texas, and Vandy, but even penciling in a loss at Alabama -- and the difference between these two teams will be the lowest since 2009 when Lane Kiffin almost pulled off the upset in Tuscaloosa -- there are a legit six toss up games on this schedule: Oklahoma, at Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, and at Missouri.
Tennessee has to go 3-3 in these six to hit the over. I think the Vols will do that, but at -140 do I really like the value of the over bet? Nope.
4. Florida
7.5 over/under with the over at +110 and the under at -150
The Gators should start off 3-0 and have Tennessee coming to town in what could be a massive swing game for both teams. Win that one and the Gators would be 4-0 and thinking they have a chance to compete in the SEC East. Lose it and the schedule looks daunting.
I'd be inclined to go under, but there's no value here.
5. South Carolina
7 over/under with the over at -120 and the under at -120
The ultimate we have no idea about this team line. Equal juice on both the over and under at seven.
The schedule is really tough: North Carolina, Central Florida and Clemson as three out of the four out of conference games. Indeed, there's only one guaranteed win all season -- Citadel.
I'd probably be inclined to take the under, but seven is such a low number, who knows?
6. Kentucky
6 over/under with the over at -145 and the under at +105
Kentucky on the under is my favorite bet of all 14 teams.
Let's look at the Wildcat schedule. UK gets wins over La-Lafayette, Eastern Kentucky, and Charlotte. So that's three wins. Louisville vs. UK is a toss up. Then comes the SEC schedule. Home: Florida, Missouri, Auburn, and Tennessee Road: South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi State, and Vandy
The only SEC game that I think Kentucky will be favored in all year is at Vandy.
So even if you give UK the Louisville win -- generous -- and the Vandy win, the Wildcats would still have to beat two more SEC teams to be over on this win total.
I just don't see it.
7. Vandy
3 over/under with the over at -135 and the under at -105
Last year Derek Mason went 3-9, this year Vegas pegs him at 3-9 again.
The only guaranteed win I see on Vandy's schedule is Austin Peay. The other three out of conference games are Western Kentucky -- a hugely massive opener for the Dores -- MTSU, and at Houston.
Vandy figures to be underdogs in all eight SEC games this season.
I think the under is the play here, but how do you play the over/under at three? Especially when Vandy can push by beating Austin Peay, WKU and MTSU?
I wouldn't touch this one either.
...
So to reiterate.
My favorite SEC over/under plays this year are:
1. UK on the under of six +105
2. Texas A&M on the under of 7.5 +165
