Royals' bullpen will be good, no doubt -- but can it be great?
The question isn't if the Royals' bullpen will be good this season. Instead, it's if the bullpen can be as good as it was a season ago.
Led by closer Greg Holland and setup men Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera, last season's pen was one of the best in baseball. The relievers' dominance led to a simple formula for manager Ned Yost -- get a lead and shut it down in the final three innings.
Kansas City went 72-1 when leading after seven innings and an amazing 79-1 when leading after eight. Neither Davis nor Herrera gave up a home run in 2014, while Holland's 46 saves ranked second in the American League.
But can the bullpen repeat its past success? And how will new pieces fit into their roles? Here's a look at the Royals' bullpen.
THE LOCKS: Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Jason Frasor, Luke Hochevar, Chris Young
Every one of these pitchers should contribute significantly throughout the season, even if Hochevar starts on the disabled list as he tries to return from Tommy John surgery. Each pitcher also comes with a fairly defined role. Herrera handles the seventh, Davis takes the eighth and Holland sends everyone home happy. Hochevar and Frasor will come in for the middle innings while Young will be Kansas City's long-relief man.
The Royals managed to shorten games to six innings and could somehow cut games to five if Hochevar is the same reliever he was in 2013, or if Frasor can prove why the Royals re-signed him for two more seasons. That's also contingent on the back-end trio replicating their success from 2014.
Davis thrived in the pen last season, setting club records for strikeouts (109) and ERA (1.00) by a reliever. He also went 31 1/3 innings without giving up a run, the second-longest streak in the AL a year ago. Even a slight regression by Davis in 2015 would still be a dominant season. The same goes for Herrera, who was solid his first two seasons as a pro but leaped forward last year by posting a 1.41 ERA in 70 appearances.
Young, meanwhile, has only one relief appearance in his 10-year career, but should provide depth and insurance for the Kansas City rotation while also contributing as a reliever.
If the Royals' bullpen does take a step back from 2014, it'll still be OK. Why? Because it already has regressed.
As good as the Kansas City relief corps was in 2014, it was even better in 2013. Two years ago, relievers had a 2.55 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings and 7.1 wins above replacement (WAR), according to FanGraphs.com. Last season, they had a 3.27 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings and 5.9 WAR. The 5.9 WAR was the most in the majors in 2014, despite throwing more innings than only one AL team.
THE BUBBLE: Louis Coleman, Franklin Morales, Brandon Finnegan, Jandel Gustave
When Tim Collins underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this month, it opened a spot up for a left-handed reliever to make the Opening Day roster. Finnegan and Morales are the main candidates to fill the role, with the Royals still deciding on Finnegan's future with the franchise.
The club hasn't decided if Finnegan will start the season with the big club as a relief pitcher or in the minors to become a starter. The Royals' 2014 first-round draft pick has struggled in the Cactus League, giving up five runs in five innings to go along with a 2.00 WHIP. Morales, meanwhile, has put together a nice spring, owning a 1.29 ERA in five games, and has perhaps locked up a roster spot.
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The Royals have toyed around with the idea of carrying eight relievers in the bullpen instead of the customary seven, which could benefit Coleman and Gustave, who are both in unique positions that could benefit them as spring training comes to a close.
Coleman is out of options, meaning that he would have to pass through waivers if the Royals tried to send him to the minors. Gustave is a Rule 5 pick who will be lost if he's not on the 25-man roster for the entire season.
WHO'S NEXT? Michael Mariot, Brian Flynn, Aaron Brooks, John Lamb, Ryan Madson, Joe Blanton
Picking which minor league arms will contribute during the season is impossible to predict in the spring. Which pitchers get called up to contribute as a reliever depends on a bevy of factors -- who they're replacing, what role they'll fill, when they last pitched, how they have pitched, even where they are geographically -- that no one knows during March.
But still, some pitchers can be looked at as potential fill-ins, mainly Mariot, Flynn, Brooks and Lamb, who are all on the Royals' 40-man roster and can easily move from the majors to the minors.
Madson and Blanton are both veterans attempting to return to the big leagues and will need time in the minors to sharpen their stuff and command. Any contribution from the pair would be a win for Kansas City.
You can follow Matthew DeFranks on Twitter at @MDeFranks or email him at matthew.defranks@gmail.com.
