Dec. 20, 2012
Since the end of the regular season, dual polls on our website have asked for viewers' opinions of the debut seasons for both Rich Rodriguez at Arizona and Todd Graham at Arizona State. As of this post, the results are similar: 92 percent were "impressed" or "satisfied" with Rodriguez's first season, which ended at 8-5 after a ridiculous 49-48 win in the New Mexico Bowl last week, while 90 percent have shown the same support for Graham heading into ASU's appearance in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl against Navy next weekend.
Considering the status of both programs heading into the year -- with Arizona coming off a 3-9 year and ASU freefalling to a 6-7 finish that resulted in the firing of Dennis Erickson -- those poll results seem reasonably indicative of the overall progress seen in the last 12 months. As for what that progress means in context ...
College Football News put together a more comprehensive assessment of first-year coaches this week, sorting each into one of four categories: "Quick, get this guy a long-term extension"; "The ground floor is down ... now go build on it"; "Okay ... learning on the fly"; and "Don't get comfortable." The higher the better, obviously.
Of the 29 coaches, only six made it into the initial category, with Ohio State's Urban Meyer at the top (can't do much better than an undefeated season). Juuuuust outside that tier were these notable names:
7. Rich Rodriguez, Arizona
8. Todd Graham, Arizona State
The Territorial Cup game obviously didn't mean as much to those at CFN as it did to those in Tempe/Tucson, but keep in mind that this is a big-picture look at overall success in the first year rather than just success within the rivalry. And the ranking here mirrors the results of our polls (92 percent support for Rodriguez to 90 percent for Graham) even after UA's up-and-down-and-back-up finish.
The CFN assessment notes that Rodriguez produced a five-game turnaround this year, won as many bowl games in his first year as UA had won in the previous 13 years and picked up five wins over other bowl participants with a team lacking talent, especially on defense. And Graham comes in for similar praise, getting credit for ASU's newfound physicality, a balanced running game that offset the loss of Brock Osweiler and the bounceback from the midseason four-game losing streak to finish the year strong.
So it's good times all around ... for now. Coaching hires are for the long term, of course, and a good first year doesn't always manifest a good tenure. Proof: Going back just three years, CFN's 2009 first-year coach rankings included in the top tier Boston College's Frank Spaziani and Auburn's Gene Chizik, both of whom have since been fired. And the coaches ranked seventh and eighth, the spots occupied this year by Rodriguez and Graham, were Wyoming's Dave Christensen and Tennessee's Lane Kiffin, who went a combined 11-13 this year (with Kiffin already having moved on to USC, of course) and will likely appear on many a hot-seat list going into 2013.
In other words: Wait and see.
-- Matt Swartz
