Running backs are one of a few positions where rookies can come in
and contribute immediately. Problem is, this draft class isn't
exactly loaded with top-tier running backs. But there are still a
few worth monitoring.
1. C.J. Spiller, Clemson, 5-11, 195 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 216 carries, 1,212 yards, 12
TDs
2009 receiving stats: 36 catches, 503 yards, 4 TDs
NFL comparison: Felix Jones
Projected draft position: Top 15 overall
Jan. 13 analysis: Dazzling. Explosive.
Electrifying. Gamebreaking.
Pick your favorite adjective, and each one (and then some)
probably applies to Spiller. He is one of a few players who would
pretty much force you to keep the TV on that channel when Clemson's
offense had the ball since he has a legitimate chance at taking
every single carry or screen pass to the house. He shared carries
on offense, but also played a major role in returning kicks on
special teams, so he can really bring value to a few different
areas for whatever NFL team chooses to select him.
The only knock on Spiller is his size, but don't let that
fool you. He has still shown the ability to break tackles (if he
didn't elude them altogether beforehand). Spiller has excellent
speed and, for lack of a better description, knows how to balance
his center of gravity well - if that makes sense. That means a
solid tackle is usually required to bring him down, and one tackler
may not be enough to do the job. He is capable of playing as an
every-down back, and I wouldn't be shocked if he outperforms his
expectations in his rookie campaign. Definitely someone to keep an
eye on during training camps.
2. Jahvid Best, California, 5-10, 195 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 141 carries, 867 yards, 12 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 22 catches, 213 yards, 4 TDs
NFL comparison: Knowshon Moreno
Projected draft position: Top 20 overall
Jan. 13 analysis: Best and Spiller could very well
be 1a and 1b for RB rankings since both of them are gamebreakers.
You may have seen the endless replays of Best getting KO'd on his
touchdown run against Oregon St., which ended his season
prematurely. It's a shame since he was on pace for a mighty
impressive season.
Best's most impressive characteristic is his ability to cut
back and change directions in an instant. He doesn't seem to lose
any speed while making his cutbacks, and that makes him a very
difficult player to chase down and tackle in the open field. The
fit which would allow him to excel the most would probably be a
team which runs a zone blocking scheme since he somehow seems to
hit fifth gear the instant his quarterback hands him the ball. He
only needs a tiny hole to be created in the line, and he's more
than capable of shooting through it. He may need to learn a tad
more patience and allow his blocks to develop for a few more
fractions of a second at the pro level, but he could be a highly
dangerous home run threat with even mediocre blocking in front of
him in the pros.
3. Jonathan Dwyer, Georgia Tech, 6-0, 228 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 235 carries, 1,395 yards, 14 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 5 catches, 37 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Frank Gore
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 13 analysis: Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson runs
a very old school triple option offense, which really limits the
potential NFL value of some of his players. Running back isn't one
of them, fortunately. If anything, running backs coming from a
system such as this one need to be smarter than ones which come
from "just grab the ball and smash your way through as many
defenders as you possibly can" types. A triple option attack relies
on precise synchronization and timing, and the slightest misstep or
confusion can spell disaster for the play.
Dwyer rushed for over 100 yards in seven of the 14 games the
Yellow Jackets played this past season. He's a physical back who
can break long runs and shed tackles. The adjustment to a more
standard pro offense shouldn't be a big deal for him. If he can
post a strong 40-time at the combine, he could sneak into the
bottom of the first round.
4. Toby Gerhart, Stanford, 6-1, 233 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 343 carries, 1,871 yards, 27 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 11 catches, 157 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Ray Rice
Projected draft position: Second round
Jan. 13 analysis: Another guy who could improve his
stock with a solid combine. Unless you despise Stanford, you have
to have enjoyed watching him run the ball. Gerhart is a
prototypical workhorse running back who does an excellent job at
shedding tacklers and gaining yards after initial contact - in
fact, he probably does it better than any other running back in
college football. Gerhart always seems to be moving forward and
finds some way to squeeze every inch of yardage out of each carry.
He has a relentless motor and seems to actually gain strength as
his game progresses, almost like a video game character who finds
some kind of energy pellet on the field and consumes it.
5. Anthony Dixon, Mississippi State, 6-1, 240 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 257 carries, 1,391 yards, 12 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 18 catches, 123 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Michael Turner
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 13 analysis: Who says slow is a bad thing?
Dixon is anything but a speed demon. His running style is rather
deliberate, and he probably wouldn't even care if the defense knew
where his play was headed before the snap. Why? Because he seems to
enjoy initiating contact with whichever defensive backs dare to
tackle him. That's probably a big reason he owns almost every
meaningful Bulldogs rushing record there is.
Dixon began the '09 season with 92 rushing yards against
Auburn, then ripped off five straight 100-plus yard games on the
ground. Unfortunately, he was cited for driving under the influence
before the season began. The whole incident was a disaster - he was
given citations for careless driving and driving without insurance,
and his refusal to take a breathalyzer test made an already bad
sitiation worse. This will be an obvious red flag for so many NFL
general managers are weighing character issues more and more as
they decide when to draft a given player. If it's a tossup between
Dixon and a squeaky clean prospect, well ... sorry, Anthony. Most
GMs will probably opt for the choir boys.
6. Charles Scott, LSU, 5-11, 230 lbs
NFL comparison: LenDale White
2009 rushing stats: 116 carries, 542 yards, 4 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 8 catches, 54 yards, 0 TDs
Projected draft position: Late second/Early third
round
Jan. 13 analysis: Scott, like Gerhart, is the kind
of running back who will wear defenses down over the course of a
game. His speed is decent, but he's not the type of back who is
going to break many huge runs. That's what'll prevent him from
becoming a featured back in the NFL. Instead, he's the back which
defenders don't want to tackle anymore as the game moves into the
later stages. You'll see Scott's name called for short-yardage
carries in frigid temperatures when his offense needs to pick up
short yardage on third down.
7. Joe McKnight, USC, 6-0, 228 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 164 carries, 1,014 yards, 8 TDs
2009 receiving stats: 22 catches, 146 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Laurence Maroney
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 13 analysis: Maybe it's just me, but it seems
like only yesterday when McKnight committed to USC. He's more of a
big time playmaker, but not someone who is capable of carrying the
ball 20-25 times per game and gaining yardage each time.
McKnight improved his rushing yardage total in three straight
seasons at USC, which was good. Curiously, his receiving yardage
decreased each season despite the fact that his receptions totals
were almost equal in each of those three years. When he was on his
game, McKnight was a force. Unfortunately, he had a bad habit of
disappearing on occasion, and the sketchy details surrounding his
allegedly illegal acceptance of a benefit (the use of an SUV in
this case) might drop his stock among those prickly general
managers who target "character guys" that I mentioned above.
McKnight really would have done himself a world of good to stay in
school for another year, but he joined a few others in abandoning
the sinking Trojan ship.
8. Ryan Mathews, Fresno State, 5-11, 220 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 276 carries, 1,808 yards, 19
TDs
2009 receiving stats: 11 catches, 122 yards, 0 TDs
NFL comparison: Ryan Grant
Projected draft position: Third round
Jan. 13 analysis: Never heard of him before? You
will. Mathews is absolutely someone you want to keep your eye on,
because his draft stock could change radically between now and
April if he puts in a good combine and pro day.
Let's get this one out of the way early: there were only two
games all season long where Mathews didn't top 100 rushing yards.
One in which he was injured in the first quarter, and the other
that he missed altogether. That's it. Every single time he received
a full workload, he was an absolute force for the Bulldogs. He
151.3 yards per game on the ground, which was the best of any
running back in the nation. He has a neat knack for seeing the play
develop, then turning on the afterburners at precisely the right
second to hit a hole and turn a run into a big gain.
Fresno St. has never been a team which shies away from tough
competition. Be that as it may, having spent his college years in
the WAC won't help Mathews' cause a great deal. Still, this guy is
the real deal. If I had to put my life on any of these guys
improving their draft stock the most, Mathews would likely be my
pick.
9. Dexter McCluster, Mississippi, 5-7, 168 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 181 carries, 1,169 yards, 8
TDs
2009 receiving stats: 44 catches, 520 yards, 3 TDs
NFL comparison:
Darren Sproles
Projected draft position: Third/Fourth round
Jan. 13 analysis: McCluster is hands-down the
fastest RB I've ever seen play at any level, including
Chris Johnson. How's that for an attention
grabber?
He reminds me quite a bit of Johnson since he looks like he's
running about three speeds faster than anyone else on the field, as
if some tech geek was able to speed him up in the picture frame
while slowing everyone else down. He has lightning quick cuts when
he changes directions in traffic, and even good defenders sometimes
looks like statues when he blazes by them. Before they even figure
out what he's going to do, he's long gone.
So, why won't we hear his name called on Day 1? Because he
has the physique of Gilligan when compared to NFL counterparts.
There's just no way a guy can withstand men twice his weight
crunching him into the ground play after play, week after week.
McCluster will make plays when he gets the ball in space. It's just
a matter of how often he'll see the field. If he found a genie in a
bottle who could wave his wand and add 50 pounds of bulk without
sacrificing any speed, McCluster would be a candidate to go No. 1
overall. I'm not kidding.
10. Montario Hardesty, Tennessee, 6-0, 215 lbs
2009 rushing stats: 282 carries, 1,345 yards, 13
TDs
2009 receiving stats: 25 catches, 302 yards, 1 TD
NFL comparison: Jonathan Stewart
Projected draft position: Fourth round
Jan. 13 analysis: Hardesty takes nice, long
strides when he runs with the ball, which lets him use his above
average speed to gain a few extra inches with each step. NFL Scouts
will realize those extra inches could add up over the course of a
game.
Anyone who has seen Hardesty run knows of the nifty spin move
he uses to elude defenders, but it's just not going to work as
easily at the NFL level. My main gripe is he sometimes waits a
little too long to let a play develop, even through running backs
are sometimes put in a position where they need to create something
out of nothing on their own. Easier said than done, sure. But
Hardesty just isn't someone who I can see as an every-down back.
