McNeal: If each position player hits these stat targets, Cardinals will make the playoffs

McNeal: If each position player hits these stat targets, Cardinals will make the playoffs

Published Feb. 16, 2015 1:45 p.m. ET

ST. LOUIS -- With spring training still a few days away, no one knows if the Cardinals will reach the postseason for the fifth straight year.

But I know this: They will if each of them can deliver on one stat that is listed below.

A point to remember: These numbers all are within reach, based on what they've already accomplished in their pro careers.

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Matt Adams: 25 homers. To increase his homers by 60 percent over 2014 might seem like a reach but really, Adams would need only a return to his rookie season home run rate. Hitting a homer every 17.4 plate appearances -- which he did in 2013 -- and making 563 PAs -- which he did in 2014 -- actually would put him on a pace for 32 homers.

Peter Bourjos: 20 stolen bases. He went into 2014 with a stated goal of 40 steals and no one doubted the ultra-speedster. But he came up woefully short with only nine. Even though he enters this spring as a fourth outfielder, he still should have enough opportunities -- including pinch-running -- to more than double his steals from last year. Bourjos often seemed hesitant to take chances last year, possibly because he was in his first season in a new league. In Year Two with the Cardinals, he should be more familiar with pitchers' moves in the NL, which should lead to more aggressiveness on the bases.

Matt Carpenter: 44 doubles. He dropped to 33 last year after going for 55 in 2013, so a meeting in the middle should not be asking too much. Whether Carpenter bats first, second or third in the order, the Cardinals need more thump from him. He managed only 43 extra-base hits in 2014 after racking up 73 in 2013 in roughly the same number of plate appearances.

Tony Cruz: Two homers. While that would mark a career high and represent an increase of 100 percent over last season, it also would mean only one more homer. The key, of course, is doubling his total while playing in no more than 50 games, as he did in 2014. The more games Cruz catches, the fewer the Cardinals will have their best player behind the plate.

Randal Grichuk: 6.0 PA/K rate. As a rookie, Grichuk struck out once every 3.74 plate appearances, the highest rate among Cardinals position players. That needs to improve whether he's facing lefties or righties, or batting five or 25 times a week. Grichuk was called up last season for his ability to hit lefties but he actually finished with a better average against right-handers, .250-.242.

Jason Heyward: .800 OPS. He says he changed his approach last year when he moved into the leadoff spot, and a career-low .384 slugging percentage would support a claim that he was more concerned about OBP (.351) than run production. Unless he leads off for the Cardinals -- and don't count on that -- Heyward will have no reason not to unleash his power swing in 2015. An .800 OPS looks quite doable, too. He posted an .849 OPS as a rookie and .814 in 2012, when he hit a career-best 27 homers.

Matt Holliday: 100 RBIs. This might surprise any Holliday haters still out there: Over the past two seasons, he ranks No. 1 in the National League with a .374 batting average with runners in scoring position. Yet he has not reached triple-digit RBIs since 2012, when he hit just .253 with RISP. So 100 RBIs should be no problem for the 35-year-old slugger -- if the hitters ahead of him can get on base.

Jon Jay: .303 batting average. Merely duplicating his 2014 would not disappoint the Cardinals, especially because he is expected to play more. There is an easily overlooked reason that hitting .303 again will be difficult: Jay had a .363 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) last year, a pretty good indication he hit into more than his share of good fortune.

Pete Kozma: Three errors or fewer. Yes, he's on my Opening Day roster no matter how he hits in spring training. With Mark Reynolds able to provide pinch-hitting power, the defense he can bring in late-inning double switches should prove more important to the Cardinals that whatever he does with the bat.

Yadier Molina: 130 starts at catcher. That might seem like too many as he approaches the age of 33, but manager Mike Matheny has said he will be monitoring Molina's workload closer than ever. If the manager feels Molina is good to go that often, you have to believe he will be. And the Cardinals are bound to benefit.

Jhonny Peralta: 21 homers. Yes, a repeat of 2014 would be just fine with the Cardinals.

Mark Reynolds: 20 homers. He's been good for at least that many for seven consecutive years, so you know he'll be shooting to stretch that streak. The trick will be doing so in fewer plate appearances. Reynolds hit 22 last year for the Brewers in 433 PAs. If Adams hits up to expectations, Reynolds might not get any more than 350 PAs in 2015.

Kolten Wong: .340 on-base percentage. He said his .249 batting average was "definitely nothing I'm proud of," but he should be more concerned about improving his .292 OBP. Taking more walks is key. Wong averaged just one walk every 20.6 PAs last year, one of the lowest rates among Cardinals regulars.

You can follow Stan McNeal on Twitter at @StanMcNeal or email him at stanmcneal@gmail.com.

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