Maybe this just ain't Matt Williams' year ...
What happened in Washington, D.C. Tuesday night was exceptionally, I mean exceptionally unlikely.
How unlikely?
Mets' win probability down 7-1 on the road with Wright on first & 2 outs in the 7th was 0.8%. pic.twitter.com/UxzPTRecfR
— Chris (@tpgMets) September 9, 2015
But the Nationals did lose. I was listening to the Nationals' radio broadcast, and could hardly believe what I was hearing. Here's Barry Svrluga's postmortem in the Post:
The specifics of what happened at Nationals Park were these: The Nats, needing a show-us-something victory over the Mets to pull back within four games of the division lead with 24 games to play, staked themselves to a 7-1 lead over New York ace Matt Harvey. With two outs and one on in the top of the seventh inning, the reappearance of a pennant race seemed nigh.
And from there, Blake Treinen, Felipe Rivero, and Drew Storen delivered the following performance: walk, run-scoring single, walk, bases-loaded walk, three-run double, walk, walk, game-tying walk, hard flyout.
Suddenly, there was a get-it-over-with, put-us-out-of-our-misery feeling to the entire affair. Not just the game. The season.
“Up 7-1,” Harper said, “you expect to win.”
You do! Here were the pre-Tuesday ERA's of the three pitchers Williams used in the seventh inning:
3.54 (Treinen)
2.87 (Rivero)
3.17 (Storen)
Storen walked three Mets, disastrously. Before Tuesday, Storen had issued only 13 walks in 54 innings.
Before Tuesday, the knock on Matt Williams was that he wouldn't use his best relievers except in precisely prescribed situations. But Tuesday night, he used his eighth-inning guy (Storen) in the seventh inning, and his ninth-inning guy (Papelbon) in the eighth inning ... and still lost.
If you already thought Williams was incompetent, you might argue that his earlier tactics left his pitchers unprepared for Tuesday night. But we're talking about the same manager whose bullpen finished 2014 with the second-lowest ERA in the league. The game will drive you crazy.
Meanwhile, the Yankees lost a close game when Joe Girardi didn't use either of his ace relievers in the ninth inning, summoning instead a rookie who promptly gave up Chris Davis's go-ahead home run. But at long as the Yankees are in line for a playoff spot, you probably won't hear much carping about Girardi.*
* Yes, I know that Chasen Shreve's a lefty having a great season, and could easily have retired Crush in good order. Which is sorta the point here. When managers' bullpen moves don't work out, it's usually bad luck more than bad managing.
