It’s been well-documented that the first seven weeks of the season produced more big-time passing efforts than in years past. You think about Cam Newton’s record-setting opening to the season, Tom Brady’s obliteration of Miami back when we said, “Oh, it’s just Tom Brady. They’re not that bad.” I used Drew Brees’ decimation of the Colts to explain basic multiplication to my daughter.
I looked a little deeper into the receiving numbers to try and gain perspective on this phenomenon.
- Through seven weeks, 38 players averaged at least 60 receiving yards.
- Eighteen receivers caught at least four touchdown passes.
- Steve Smith leads all of the NFL with 818 receiving yards. To put that in perspective, Smith has already surpassed his 2010 yardage total by 32%.
- Quarterbacks have combined to attempt 69 passes per game.
Exclude: Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith, Dez Bryant, Anquan Boldin, Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson, Andre Johnson
Bye Week: Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Oakland, New York Jets
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Week 8 Heroes
A.J. Green, CIN at SEA: Green and the Bengals look to extend their three-game winning streak (I had to type that) on the road. It’s not a layup, as the Seahawks have surrendered just 263 yards and one touchdown per game to opposing receivers. However, Green is quickly becoming one of the “must-start” options at the position. He scored in four of the Bengals’ first six games and produced three games with at least 90 receiving yards. He’ll be elevated to the “Exclusion” list once his scores this week.
Brandon Lloyd, STL vs. NO: Lloyd posted a solid debut for the Rams in his reunion with Josh McDaniels. He was targeted 12 times in the blowout loss to Dallas and finished the contest with six receptions for 74 yards.
“The song remains the same.” This week’s game against the Saints looks much the same. Drew Brees and the Saints will carve up the secondary and force A.J. Feeley (Sam Bradford isn’t practicing) to keep chucking the ball downfield. Take the points, however they find you.
Mario Manningham, NYG vs. MIA: Manningham posted identical stat lines in Weeks 5 and 6 (five receptions for 56 yards). His Week 6 performance was noteworthy against the Bills, however, as he narrowly missed scoring several touchdowns.
The Dolphins have been unable to generate turnovers and things are spiraling downward in a hurry. Miami surrenders 258.5 passing yards and two touchdowns per game.
Victor Cruz is still a factor, of course, but I’m anticipating a breakout game from Manningham in this home tilt.
Nate Washington, TEN vs. IND: Washington was an early-season waiver wire hero for owners while working opposite Kenny Britt. He averaged seven receptions and 86 receiving yards through three weeks. Slowly but surely, fantasy owners started to slide him back to the wire following Britt’s season-ending injury. In the past three games, Washington averaged 2.7 receptions and 47 receiving yards (one reception for 10 yards against the Texans).
I’m banging the drum for Washington to get back onto the fantasy radar in a big spot here against the scuffling Indianapolis secondary. The Colts have surrendered 265.1 yards and two touchdowns per game to opposing passers. How about the fact that opposing quarterbacks are completing 72.8% of their pass attempts? This reads as a “get right” game, if only for a week, for Matt Hasselbeck.
Brandon Marshall, MIA at NYG: Marshall has been very frustrating this season, but you can’t complain about opportunities. He ranks seventh in the league in targets with 61 and has recorded at least four receptions in every game this season (two 100-yard games).
I know you don’t trust Matt Moore. You shouldn’t. Trust the team’s lone playmaker to get past the mental blocks and make the most of his targets on the road. On the passing plays where Moore is upright (the Giants have generated 21 sacks), Marshall stands front and center.
Michael Jenkins, MIN at CAR: Jenkins emerged as a top target for Christian Ponder in Week 7 against the Packers. He was targeted eight times, producing three receptions for 111 yards with a touchdown. Jenkins set up an early touchdown with a 72-yard reception.
Percy Harvin may return for the Vikings, but I still anticipate seeing a high target count for Jenkins. He’s averaged 5.4 targets through seven weeks and benefits from Ponder’s elusiveness.
Jabar Gaffney, WAS at BUF: Gaffney has been a solid secondary receiver for the Redskins. He’ll receive additional targets following the loss of Santana Moss. Gaffney caught three or more passes in five of the Redskins’ first six games (3.8 receptions and 60.2 receiving yards per game) while averaging 7.2 targets per game.
Antonio Brown, PIT vs. NE: Would you believe that Brown is tied for 26th in targets (48) through seven weeks of play? Brown has caught four or more passes in four games this season, finishing each game with at least 67 receiving yards. He’s on the board for a big start this week against the New England pass defense in what promises to be a high-scoring affair.
Steve Johnson, BUF vs. WAS: As they did in 2010, fantasy owners have grown a little uneasy with Johnson’s production in the past several weeks. He scored one touchdown in the Bills’ final three games ahead of the Bye and failed to eclipse 60 receiving yards.
The Washington secondary is banged up a bit heading into the spot, and I have to believe that Chan Gailey devised a few wrinkles to the offense to get Johnson open in space against this secondary during the Bye week. I’m not expecting a huge game from the Buffalo offense overall, but I do anticipate success for Johnson downfield (as Steve Smith experienced in Week 7).
Week 8 Ninja Alerts
Demaryius Thomas, DEN vs. SD: Thomas didn’t bust open a huge play downfield in Week 7 against the Dolphins. However, he did make a huge diving catch for a touchdown and finished Tim Tebow’s first start with 10 targets (three receptions for 27 yards). He’s on the radar for another huge target count against the San Diego pass defense. As Tebow gets more comfortable under center, there will be ample opportunities for this new deep threat.
Torrey Smith, BAL vs. ARI: I’ll roll the dice with Smith this week as the Ravens seek to rebound from last week’s debacle in Jacksonville. Smith was targeted five times in Week 7, finishing with three receptions for 32 yards (one was a brilliant catch for 20 yards to set up the Ravens’ lone touchdown).
The Cardinals have been obliterated by opposing passing games to the tune of 290.7 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game.
Emmanuel Sanders, PIT vs. NE: Antonio Brown (see above) received a ton of love on the waiver wire this week, but Sanders remains in the mix for increased targets because of Hines Ward’s injury. In fact, reports from Pittsburgh put Sanders into the starting lineup in Ward’s absence. He’s been targeted 27 times this season, producing 13 receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns (five receptions, 46 yards and a touchdown in Week 7).
He’s a solid back-end WR3 option in what promises to be a wide-open, high-scoring affair.
Week 8 Flop Alerts
Reggie Wayne, IND at TEN: I don’t know what else to say. I’ve talked about the target count for weeks, but that argument doesn’t hold anymore. Wayne hasn’t scored since Week 1 and has recorded one game with more than 66 receiving yards in his past six starts.
The Tennessee secondary has been torched in the past two weeks, but I can’t look past Curtis Painter’s recent struggles. Wayne represents a risky WR3 play this week.
Sidney Rice, SEA vs. CIN: Seattle fans, fantasy owners and Rice himself eagerly anticipate the return of Tarvaris Jackson to the Seattle lineup. Yes, I just typed that. Rice was limited to four receptions and 38 receiving yards in the upset win over New York in Week 5 (when Jackson was injured) and contributed two receptions for 38 yards in whatever you want to call that Week 7 game against the Browns.
I can’t get overly excited about the individual matchup against Leon Hall. And, it sounds like Charlie Whitehurst is going to be under center barring a late status change for Jackson.
Miles Austin, DAL at PHI: Austin was limited to two receptions and 16 receiving yards in the Cowboys’ blowout win over St. Louis. I’m not anticipating a return to elite status this week against the Eagles and Nnamdi Asomugha. I presume that Philadelphia will lock Asomugha down on Austin for much of the day (when he doesn’t slide over to Jason Witten) and effectively attempt to erase half of the field.
He rates as a high-end WR2 this week with expectations of this game opening up at times. Temper expectations and scrutinize those secondary positions to maximize returns.
Kevin Walter, HOU at TEN: Walter failed to take advantage of his increased target count in Andre Johnson’s absence. Following his five-reception, 81-yards effort against Oakland (he scored his second touchdown of the season), Walter amassed just nine receptions for 87 yards against the Ravens and Titans.
The Jaguars still don’t have a “Wow!” factor, but the cornerbacks get physical at the line of scrimmage and Walter does not have the speed to gain separation. He’s a high-end WR4 in PPR leagues.
FOX Fantasy Football Homepage | Fowler: Week 8 Start Sit Gallery
