We’ve experienced a wild ride during the past 16 weeks. To say that a roller coaster was the greatest of our attractions might be a grand understatement. Our top fantasy options had their ups and downs, and owners churned through the waiver wire at a record pace to find the missing piece to the equation. After all, the only certainty in the fantasy realm is that new heroes will emerge and that the injury list will get longer by the week.
It’s a maddening, frustrating game, to be sure, but we wouldn’t have it any other way. Let’s dive into the final round of Lineup Calls for this year, starting in Pittsburgh.
Top 10 Quarterbacks
(Not named Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Brett Favre or Kurt Warner)
Ben Roethlisberger at Miami
Roethlisberger ranks among those unbenchable options for the finale, as the Steelers continue to throw and throw … and throw. He’s averaging 34.2 pass attempts and 293.4 yards per game with two touchdowns per interception. Look for him to keep gunning downfield this weekend against the 23rd-ranked Miami pass defense.
Jay Cutler at Detroit
You may have skipped watching Monday’s game in Chicago, figuring the box score would be less nightmare-inducing than viewing Cutler’s latest catastrophe. Instead, he demonstrated the arm strength and poise the Bears and their suffering fans expected when the offseason trade was consummated with Denver. Can he do it again? I don’t know that calling for four touchdowns is reasonable or logical, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Cutler passed for 141 yards and two touchdowns (adding one rushing score) in the Week 4 blowout win over Detroit. I anticipate a strong season-ending effort on the road as the Bears play in support of their embattled coaching staff.
Donovan McNabb at Dallas
McNabb’s Week 16 effort against Denver was a thing of beauty and completely unexpected. He’s not an overwhelming option on a weekly basis, but the explosiveness of the Philadelphia passing attack cannot be denied. He’s been shut out only once this season while producing eight multi-touchdown efforts (seven passing and one with one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown). He turned in one of his worst efforts of the year in Week 9 against the Cowboys, completing 16-of-30 attempts for 227 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. I expect a better effort in this season-ending contest with playoff seeding still up for grabs.
Joe Flacco at Oakland
Flacco went through a rough stretch in the middle of the season, but has rallied nicely down the stretch with nine touchdowns against five turnovers in his past five starts. He’s averaged 211.2 passing yards during this period. Now, I recognize the Oakland defense’s solid efforts in front of the home crowd. However, I like the way the Ravens have integrated Todd Heap into the passing game alongside top target >Derrick Mason in recent weeks. The Baltimore defense will be rolling up on Charlie Frye, and I expect Flacco to be the recipient of multiple short fields in the Ravens’ battle for a playoff berth.
Eli Manning at Minnesota
What was that? I’m referring, of course, to the shellacking handed to the Giants by the Panthers in Week 16 to eliminate them from playoff contention. Manning had registered five multi-touchdown games in his previous six starts while averaging 288.2 yards. I expect the Giants to play with pride in the finale and challenge the Vikings. They’ll struggle to run the ball against Minnesota, but Manning should be able to find spots downfield with his talented receiving corps. Again, I’m not anticipating Week 16 Cutler-like numbers from Manning this week, but a 250-yard, two-score effort isn’t out of the question.
Tony Romo vs. Philadelphia
The Cowboys have put the label of “December chokers” to the wayside, if only for a moment. Romo’s been spectacular down the stretch, averaging 309.6 passing yards with nine touchdowns against one interception his past five games. I’m calling on him to continue his grand run to the playoffs in Week 17 against Philadelphia, having passed for 307 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the first meeting with them.
Kyle Orton vs. Kansas City
Orton was the afterthought in the trade that sent Jay Cutler packing for Chicago, but he’s produced a phenomenal season in Josh McDaniels’ offense. He’s averaged 224.7 passing yards per game with 20 touchdowns against 11 turnovers. He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his past four starts and will most definitely be front and center against the middling Kansas City pass defense this week. Denver’s playing for a wild card slot, and I anticipate frequent targets to Brandon Marshall, Week 16 standout Jabar Gaffney and dump-offs to Knowshon Moreno.
Matt Ryan at Tampa Bay
Ryan ranked as one of the top surprises in Week 16, battling through injury to throw for 250 yards and three touchdowns against the strong Buffalo pass defense. It was only his second multi-touchdown performance since Week 7. He’s a strong start for Week 17 against the Buccaneers in the finale, provided he doesn’t experience any setbacks with his turf toe injury this week in practice. I’m moderately concerned that he gets shut down, so be sure to monitor his progress as the weekend approaches.
Alex Smith at St. Louis
Smith didn’t light up the scoreboard as we may have anticipated against the Lions in Week 16, but his 230-yard, one-touchdown performance was certainly an improvement over his Week 15 debacle. He looks to finish the season well against the 24th-ranked St. Louis pass defense. The Rams rank 30th in the NFL in sacks and have intercepted only eight passes this year. Look for Smith and his impressive corps of receivers to produce another big effort.
Matt Schaub vs. New England
Despite losing Owen Daniels and Steve Slaton for the year and receiving less than stellar weekly contributions from Kevin Walter, Schaub’s posted an amazing season for the Texans. He’s been tremendous for fantasy owners down the stretch (besides a few errant throws, of course), averaging 302.3 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and seven turnovers in his past five starts. He’ll finish the season with a big effort against a New England team that may rest several of its starters on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Sleepers
Chad Henne vs. Pittsburgh
The Dolphins are airing it out down the stretch, giving Henne a chance to showcase his big arm. He’s averaged 45.5 passing attempts in the past four weeks, producing an average of 306.5 yards per game, with five total touchdowns against six turnovers during this stretch. He’s a solid longshot play this week against the Pittsburgh pass defense that remains susceptible to big plays. The Steelers may force a turnover or two or produce a couple of sacks, but I believe Henne will end Sunday with a sizable yardage total. His value changes if Troy Polamalu’s cleared to play.
Derek Anderson vs. Jacksonville
I know. I know. Save the speeches. I recognize I entered the name of “Derek Anderson” into this slot, but he’s on the radar for the finale against an abysmal Jacksonville pass defense. The Jaguars get no push at the line of scrimmage, leaving the cornerbacks on islands in one-on-one coverage. The Browns have played well in recent weeks, and I expect to see them close things out with a strong effort against the Jaguars. Jerome Harrison will lead the way on the ground, and Anderson will take his shots downfield.
Matt Moore vs. New Orleans
Moore shone brightly again in Week 16, completing 15-of-20 attempts for 171 yards and three touchdowns. It was his second consecutive three-touchdown game since assuming the top spot after Jake Delhomme’s injury. In the past three weeks, Moore’s thrown seven touchdown passes without an interception. He’s a solid play this week against the Saints, who have clinched the top spot and home field advantage. As such, you might see more rotations into the secondary of backups. I like his chances, even with top option Steve Smith sidelined because of his broken arm. I’ll ask the obvious for you Carolina fans: Wouldn’t you have liked to have seen what Moore could have done with this squad earlier this season?
Charlie Frye vs. Baltimore
Have I lost my mind? I logged Derek Anderson in this list and now promote Charlie Frye as well? OK, just follow my logic. Frye passed for more than 300 yards in last week’s loss to Cleveland, demonstrating a willingness and capability to stretch the field with Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy and Zach Miller. He’ll absorb a couple sacks and probably turn the ball over at least once, but look for the Raiders to bring a strong effort in the home finale in the role of spoiler.
Quarterback Flops
Jason Campbell at San Diego
Campbell was shut out of the end zone for the first time since Week 11. He passed for 199 yards with an interception in the shutout loss to Dallas, one week after getting steamrolled by the Giants. San Diego might not have anything to play for in the standings this weekend, but I expect them to bring a top effort and keep momentum rolling into the playoffs. The Chargers rank ninth against the pass, and I just don’t like what I’ve seen from the Washington offense in the past two games. What was that old Paula Abdul song? “Take two steps forwards … and two steps back.” We’re right back where we started with Campbell as this season draws to a close.
Matt Hasselbeck vs. Tennessee
Hasselbeck’s thrown eight interceptions the past two weeks in a season that’s spiraled out of control. The Titans are trying to finish off a strong second half, and the secondary’s played quite well down the stretch. I’m not optimistic of a bounce-back effort in the finale.
Matt Cassel at Denver
Cassel closes out the season against a Denver defense still seeking a playoff berth. In the first meeting with them, he wasn’t so dominating, and his job security came into question. He completed 10-of-29 passes for a paltry 84 yards and two interceptions. That “effort” came in front of the home crowd. He’ll be dominated in Denver.
Top 10 Running Backs
(Not named Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Chris Johnson, Cedric Benson, Ray Rice or DeAngelo Williams – watch his health)
Ryan Grant at Arizona
Grant rebounded from a smallish Week 15 appearance against the Steelers (though he did score) to rush for 97 yards and two touchdowns in Week 16. He’s been one of the most consistent performers in the game this season, averaging 80.1 rushing yards with 10 touchdowns. He takes aim a middling Arizona run defense (113 yards per game) that’s struggled somewhat down the stretch. This game still has playoff seeding implications, so expect both teams to play it straight.
Jerome Harrison vs. Jacksonville
Harrison electrified fantasy owners with a ridiculous 286-yard, three-touchdown performance in Week 15. How did he follow it up? He rushed for 148 yards with a touchdown and a lost fumble while amassing 39 carries, that’s how. He’s a strong play again this weekend against a weak Jacksonville run defense, who’ve surrender 109.9 yards and 0.67 rushing touchdowns per game. Cleveland’s played well down the stretch, and Eric Mangini seems to have found his tailback (for as long as he’s still coach in Cleveland, anyway).
Knowshon Moreno vs. Kansas City
Moreno was shut down by the Eagles in Week 16, but he did find the end zone to offer some consolation to fantasy owners. He’s in a much better spot this weekend against the 31st-ranked Kansas City running game at home (161.3 yards and 1.07 touchdowns). Look for the Broncos to come out with a big effort this weekend and for his versatility to be on display.
Matt Forte at Detroit
Forte certainly hasn’t experienced the sophomore season fantasy owners anticipated following his brilliant rookie campaign. However, he gets a chance to close things out against the terrible Detroit defense. His best yardage total of the season came in the Week 4 meeting with the Lions when he rushed for 121 yards and a touchdown. I’m intrigued by the fact he’s carried the ball 20 or more times in three of the Bears’ past four games. He’ll end the season with a bang against the Lions.
Jamaal Charles at Denver
Charles earned his third straight 100-yard game in Week 16 against the Bengals, his fourth of the season since assuming the top slot. He’s been a frequent contributor in the passing game and has the explosiveness to make defenders miss. He’ll amass a huge workload once again and should succeed against the Denver run defense (116.1 yards per game).
Cadillac Williams vs. Atlanta
Williams appeared on the sleeper list against the Saints for Week 16, and he didn’t let me down with 129 yards and a touchdown. I’m calling on him to provide another strong effort this week against the middle of the road Atlanta run defense. The Buccaneers would like to establish balance and keep Josh Freeman from having to throw the ball 40 times. Owners seeking a Flex play might look in Williams’ direction this weekend, as he’s amassed double-digit touches in all but one game this season.
Fred Jackson vs. Indianapolis
Jackson’s quiet run as a fantasy contributor was slowed last week when he amassed 53 total yards on 15 touches with a fumble against the Falcons. Still, he’s on the radar this weekend against a Colts team that will likely rest a number of starters. Jackson remains a capable receiver out of the backfield and still posts a weekly double-digit touch count (15 or more touches in five consecutive games).
Jonathan Stewart vs. New Orleans
Stewart electrified the fantasy world with his 206-yard, one-touchdown effort in the blowout win over the Giants. He’s now topped 100 yards and scored in three of his past four games. He’ll take on another heavy workload this week against a New Orleans defense that was run over by the Cadillac last week and has nothing, except to right a stumbling ship, to play for now. He may share time with DeAngelo Williams, who may be cleared to return to action, but I don’t anticipate the Panthers running Williams back onto the field this week.
Rashard Mendenhall at Miami
Mendenhall’s scored in three of the past four weeks, but he’s also rushed for 53 yards or fewer in three consecutive games. As such, fantasy owners are in a difficult spot this weekend. His ability as a receiver will be paramount to his success this weekend against the 12th-ranked Miami run defense. Ben Roethlisberger will be able to work the ball downfield against the secondary, and Mendenhall may be the beneficiary of a goal-line opportunity.
Donald Brown at Buffalo
Joseph Addai scored early in Week 16 against the Jets and then exited the game. Brown came in and amassed 16 touches for a meager total of 34 yards, but he did find the end zone for the third time this season. He figures to assume a huge role this weekend against the atrocious Buffalo run defense. I don’t believe you’ll see a ton of downfield passing prowess from Curtis Painter. He’ll do the two-step shuffle and hand the ball off to Brown with great regularity.
Running Back Sleepers
Darren Sproles vs. Washington
With the second seed in the AFC Playoffs secured, LaDainian Tomlinson figures to assume a smaller role in the season finale against the Redskins. As a result, I expect to see a sizable workload from the diminutive Sproles. He scored three times in the Week 16 blowout win over Tennessee and has been quite active in the passing game (45 receptions). The Redskins are limping to the end of the season with a major overhaul ahead. Look for the Chargers’ roll to continue into the playoffs.
Lex Hilliard vs. Pittsburgh
Hilliard took the reins from an injured Ricky Williams in Week 16 and put together a tremendous day against the Texans and nearly led a huge comeback effort. He amassed 86 total yards on 12 touches (nine receptions) and scored twice. Williams’ injury status is unknown as of the early part of the week, putting Hilliard on the radar for deeper leagues in the finale. It’s obviously not a tremendous matchup against the Pittsburgh run defense, but Hilliard could be valuable for Chad Henne in the passing game.
Arian Foster vs. New England
Houston turned to Foster for a huge workload against the Dolphins, and he responded with a 19-carry, 97-yard effort with a touchdown in the win. His bid for additional touches was aided by Chris Brown’s loss of another fumble. He figures to be the top option for this finale against the Patriots, as the Texans look to secure a playoff berth. Ball security is king this week, and Foster hasn’t had the fumbling issues of the other backs on the roster.
Sammy Morris at Houston
Morris took advantage of his opportunity against the Jaguars, a situation created when Laurence Maroney fumbled at the goal-line. The veteran back assumed the top spot and rumbled for 95 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Morris missed significant time early this season because of an injury and took a backseat to Maroney upon his return. However, Maroney’s fumbling issues finally seem to have caught up with him. I expect to see Morris take the bulk of the workload this week against Houston.
Running Back Flops
Thomas Jones vs. Cincinnati
I preface this analysis by saying this: Jones is on my short list of candidates for Fantasy MVP, as he was ignored on draft day and has been one of the most consistent tailback options in the game. However, my expectations are lowered for this season-ending affair on Sunday night against the Bengals. Granted, Cincinnati could be resting starters and change the complexion of this game, but I still see the second-best run defense in the NFL coming to play for the finale. Jones will approach his season average of 88.3 rushing yards and needs to be in your lineup given his weekly production. I’m just not anticipating a top-tier effort this weekend.
Ahmad Bradshaw at Minnesota
Bradshaw’s stock rises marginally this week upon the release of the news that Brandon Jacobs will undergo surgery on his injured knee and miss the finale. As such, Bradshaw warrants consideration of a start as a second running back for fantasy owners against the stout Minnesota run defense. Still, I’m not optimistic that you’re getting much of a return this week. Minnesota’s still battling for playoff seeding following the shocking loss in Chicago on Monday night. He might get you a goal-line plunge and pile up a few receptions out of the backfield, but I’m not expecting much overall. The Vikings have to come up with a better effort on Sunday, don’t they?
Marion Barber vs. Philadelphia
This certainly hasn’t been the year for Barber that most (self included) expected coming into training camp. He’s been an infrequent visitor to the end zone, but he’s gotten the nod the past two weeks with three goal-line plunges. He’s amassing a sizable workload, having averaged 16.2 rushing attempts per game in the past six weeks. He takes aim at the eighth-ranked Philadelphia run defense this weekend. I’d slide in him into the second RB slot on the chance of another goal-line charge in this all-important NFC East battle. I’m just not anticipating fireworks in a split workload.
Top 10 Wide Receivers
(Not named Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Ochocinco, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, Randy Moss, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Roddy White, Miles Austin, Sidney Rice or Wes Welker
Greg Jennings at Arizona
Jennings posted his second straight 100-yard game last week in the blowout win over Seattle. It was his fifth 100-yard effort of the season. He’s contributed multiple receptions in all but one game this season, averaging 4.3 receptions and 72.3 yards per game. Look for Aaron Rodgers to come out gunning against the Cardinals, a pass defense that allows 233.5 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game.
Mike Sims-Walker at Cleveland
Sims-Walker was limited to two receptions for 19 yards in last week’s blowout loss to the Patriots. He’ll look to close out his breakthrough season against the Cleveland secondary. The Browns have played better overall of late, but opponents have still been able to move the ball. One need only look at last week’s box score, where the 300-yard passing effort by Charlie Frye left you scratching your head.
Terrell Owens vs. Indianapolis
I had such great hopes for Owens in Week 16. Alas, Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ankle didn’t heal and Brian Brohm was unable to connect with his mercurial receiver downfield. Owens finished the game with four receptions for 39 yards. He’s back on the radar this weekend against Indianapolis, though. The defense will likely rest multiple starters, and there’s a chance Fitzpatrick will return to the field.
Antonio Bryant vs. Atlanta
Bryant was a disappointment in Week 16, producing just 52 receiving yards on five receptions in the Buccaneers’ upset win. However, he remains a frequent target for Josh Freeman and a solid contributor to owners in PPR leagues as a third receiver. He’s caught three or more passes in six consecutive games and will be a factor against the 28th-ranked Atlanta pass defense.
Hines Ward at Miami
Ward continues to be slowed by a hamstring injury, but he’s gamely battling in his effort to lead the Steelers back into the playoffs. He caught four passes for 37 yards in Week 16 against the Ravens, his second smallish game in the past three weeks. However, he’s caught three or more passes in all but one game to remain on the radar for fantasy owners in the finale. The Miami pass defense is gaining in experience, but it won’t be able to slow the myriad of options at Ben Roethlisberger’s disposal. I’m anticipating a number of short targets to Ward, including several red zone opportunities. Miami ranks 24th in total defense (24 points per game), so look for Roethlisberger to work the ball downfield with great success.
Calvin Johnson vs. Chicago
Johnson rebounded from two sub-par performances to post a solid effort in Week 16 against the 49ers. He caught seven passes for 96 yards. Alas, his contributions in the passing game were negated by two lost fumbles. He’s a solid play this weekend against the Bears, a defense that moves forward into the finale without cornerback Charles Tillman. Johnson caught eight passes for 133 yards in the first meeting with Chicago.
Derrick Mason at Oakland
Mason caught seven passes for 77 yards against Pittsburgh to continue his strong run for owners in PPR leagues, but his dropped would-be touchdown left fantasy owners wanting. He’s been key to Joe Flacco’s recent surge, and the reemergence of Todd Heap as a receiving option has opened space for Mason, who’s averaged 86 receiving yards the past three weeks.
Steve Smith (NYG) at Minnesota
Smith was on the radar for a big year as Eli Manning’s top target, but nobody could have expected him to become such a huge contributor for fantasy owners. He’s caught 97 passes (6.5 receptions per game) while averaging 77.5 receiving yards per game. He’ll continue his brilliant campaign this weekend against the Vikings. He’s become one of the premiere route-runners in the game, and his timing with Manning on quick in-routes is impeccable. Look for a number of short, quick-hit receptions this week.
Santonio Holmes at Miami
Holmes has been on a tremendous run since the Steelers’ Week 8 bye, averaging six receptions and 93.3 yards the past eight games while scoring three touchdowns. The Steelers continue to struggle on the ground, thereby putting everything on Ben Roethlisberger’s big right arm in a last-ditch effort to reach the playoffs. Miami ranks 23rd against the pass, allowing 236.9 yards and 1.3 touchdowns via the air per game.
Devin Aromashodu at Detroit
Aromashodu was among the stars of Week 16 with a breakout performance against the Vikings. He caught seven passes for 150 yards, including the game-winning 39-yard touchdown in overtime. He’s scored in two of the past three games, racking up 17 receptions and 236 yards. With the Bears turning to the downfield passing game with more regularity and Aromashodu past his early-season injury issues, he could be a big target in the finale against the Lions.
Wide Receiver Sleepers
Earl Bennett at Detroit
I’m not doing backflips and forgetting about the Bears’ season-long scuffles after four quarters of strong football against the Vikings. However, I was encouraged by the Monday night performance and hold out hope that Jay Cutler can finish strong against the woeful Detroit pass defense. Devin Aromashodu gets my nod for the top spot in the receiving corps (see above), but Cutler’s former Vanderbilt teammate, Bennett, will most assuredly be involved as well. Bennett’s caught multiple passes in all but one game this season, averaging 3.4 receptions and 46 yards per game.
Mohamed Massaquoi vs. Jacksonville
Do you remember when Massaquoi was the waiver wire flavor of the month following his monster game against the Bengals in Week 5? His performances have been inconsistent since that day with a few strong efforts in the mix (61 yards and a touchdown last week). He’s on the radar this weekend against the pathetic Jacksonville pass defense that’s been unable to sustain a pass rush all season and yields ample big plays. Do I trust Derek Anderson? I can’t say I’d go that far, although he does make for an interesting play against this unit. Massaquoi will see 8-10 targets and make a big play downfield at some point.
Davone Bess vs. Pittsburgh
Bess isn’t going to overwhelm you with yardage or explosive plays. What he will do is amass a sizable target count and reception total each week. He’s caught three or more passes in every game this season (71 total) while averaging 44.9 yards per game. He’ll be a frequent target of Chad Henne, who’s averaged 45 pass attempts his past four starts. The Dolphins will be able to pass downfield on the Steelers, a pass defense lacking an identity.
Muhsin Muhammad vs. New Orleans
The veteran receiver scored his first touchdown of the season in the Panthers’ win over the Giants. Muhammad caught three passes for 56 yards, his fourth straight game with multiple receptions (12th of the season). With Steve Smith out of the mix (broken arm), Muhammad slides into the top spot against the New Orleans secondary. He and late-season star Matt Moore could surprise.
Josh Morgan at St. Louis
Morgan didn’t post the huge breakout game against the Lions that we anticipated, but he still caught four passes for 21 yards. He’s been active in the passing game, having caught three or more passes in five consecutive contests. He’s averaged 5.2 receptions and 39 yards per contest during this stretch and is worthy of a look-see as a deeper play against the Rams this weekend.
Mike Wallace at Miami
The rookie from Mississippi’s become a reliable deep threat for Ben Roethlisberger, having caught multiple passes in all but two games this season. In the past two weeks, he’s caught five passes for 162 yards, including receptions of 60 and 45 yards (two touchdowns in the Week 15 shootout with Green Bay).
Wide Receiver Flops
Santana Moss at San Diego
Moss always brings his A-game against the Cowboys, and he posted his best since Week 3 with an eight-catch, 92-yard effort in Week 16. He’s caught three or more passes in six consecutive games, so he remains worthy of a WR3 slot against San Diego. However, he’s found the end zone just once since Week 4. I understand the Chargers may cycle out starters after securing the No. 2 seed in Week 15, but I’m still reticent to get onboard the bandwagon in the finale.
Dwayne Bowe at Denver
Given the furor over PEDs in all other walks of sporting life, I still find it interesting that Bowe’s suspension this season was met with nary more than a shrug. He’s returned to post solid numbers in two games, accumulating 13 catches for 117 yards. And while he’s an intimidating force, he’s locked in a difficult one-on-one matchup in a must-win game for the Broncos. He’s no better than a third receiver this week.
Roy Williams vs. Philadelphia
I’m torn about where to place Williams this weekend. He ranks among the more frustrating players in the fantasy realm, and I’m sure more than a few Cowboys fans would want to pile on here, too. He’s been an inconsistent performer on a weekly basis, but remains the primary red zone target for Tony Romo. He’s scored in four of his past seven games (five total touchdowns) and could factor in at the end of a drive this week after having caught five passes for 75 yards in the first meeting with Washington.
