Kentucky Derby tips: Finding a winner of the 'Run for the Roses'
We are in the stretch run leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and it's time to get serious about finding your Derby horse. Below are a few tips for finding your selection for the most difficult race of the year to handicap.
Good luck!
Consistency and Class: Look for a horse who has consistently competed well against top competition. There should be a lot of 1s and 2s, meaning G1 (Grade 1) or G2 (Grade 2) after races and 1 or 2 in the final slot for a running line indicating a first- or second-place finish. Seventeen of the last 19 Kentucky Derby winners entered off a win (9) or runner-up finish (8) with the other two Derby victors coming into the race off of a fourth-place finish. You want your Derby pick to be at the top of his game, not heading in the wrong direction. Based upon this, horses under consideration for the Derby that I won't be playing to win (but would consider for second, third or fourth) are: El Kabeir, Itsaknockout, War Story, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Mr. Z, Bolo, Keen Ice, Frammento and Bold Conquest. (Side note: Quality performances as a 2-year-old combined with excellent current form can be especially powerful.)
Acceleration is Key: Horses with any running style can win the Kentucky Derby, but the one key factor to look for is turn of foot. Being able to stay close to a fast pace early and still accelerate in the stretch and finish strongly is an angle I look for, but closers with the speed to make a big middle move to rally into contention also have fared well in recent years. Plodders and grinders, however, don't win the Derby unless there are extreme circumstances, like a pace meltdown (see,Giacomo in 2005) or an off-track. Look for a horse who has shown the ability to shift gears and pass horses when it counts. I thought the table below was interesting. It shows the last 15 Derby winners position after the first quarter-mile, half-mile, mile, in early stretch and at the finish. Even the closers had the acceleration to close the gap between the first half-mile and mile.
Eye in the Sky: How a horse is training leading up to the race is important, but you shouldn't base your selection entirely on clocker reports. A horse can look great in the mornings and be on his toes with a dappled coat, but if he's not fast enough, he isn't going to win. Use the information coming from people on site at Churchill Downs to assist or confirm your opinions. For example, in 2006 I loved Barbaro heading into Derby week. His blistering final workout and rave reviews from those on the grounds cemented my plan to base my wagering strategy entirely around him. I bet him to win and played him over ALL in the exacta for a very nice day. But the basis of my opinion was formed mostly by his accomplishments on the racetrack. (Key side note: If a trainer is waiting on a final workout to decide if he's going to run in the Kentucky Derby or not, the horse is not going to win. He might finish third or fourth, but he won't be wearing a blanket of roses. If the trainer does not have confidence in his/her horse, why should you?)
Trust Your Judgment: Don't let somebody talk you off a horse you like in any race and especially in the Kentucky Derby. There is no worse feeling than landing on a horse, pulling back because someone told you the horse had no shot or you were clueless and then watching him/her pull away in the stretch. Criticism is especially frequent on social media but don't become discouraged. The reality is most of the people calling others idiots based upon Derby picks have never correctly picked a Kentucky Derby winner or said something like, "With his pedigree [I'll Have Another/California Chrome/Smarty Jones] would need to catch a cab to get 1¼ miles." The reality is, we are all taking a shot in the most difficult race to handicap. Your opinion is as good as anyone else's.
Weather Matters: Keep an eye on weather reports leading up to the Kentucky Derby and identify one or two horses who might be aided by a wet track. Previous success on a wet (sloppy, muddy or good) track should be the first criteria you use. American Pharoah, Materiality, El Kabeir, Upstart and Far Right all have run big races on off-tracks. Pedigrees also can be helpful and many past performances contain data about potential for an off-track. Daily Racing Form past performances display a Tomlinson Wet Track Rating based upon pedigree -- the higher the better. See the example below for Upstart's past performances. In the top right, under "D.Fst" is the line for Wet. The number in parentheses is the Tomlinson rating and next to that is the horse's record on a wet racetrack. A quick scan on a rainy day can uncover hidden gems. Brisnet past performances also include performance data about each horse's sire (father) and dam's sire (mother's father) on muddy tracks. Don't be afraid to change your opinion if the track comes up muddy or sloppy. Some horses just handle it better than others.
Dreaded One Hole: I'm not one who pays a lot of attention to historical trends when making my Derby pick. Experts said five weeks was too long between the final prep race and the Kentucky Derby as recently as 2006, when Barbaro made a lot of people look foolish. Now many trainers prefer five or six weeks rest leading up to the race. But the No. 1 post position in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field makes a horse a toss for me. Think about it, 19 other horses break out of the starting gate and immediately start moving over to try and take that inside position. It's like a stampede engulfing the inside horse and we've seen quite a few runners get bounced around pretty good in the early stages of this race. The last horse to win from the one hole was Ferdinand in 1986.
Feel Free to Pick Two: I'm of the opinion that in regular races you should never bet more than one horse to win. Doing that means one of your bets is automatically a loser from the start. It's bad business. But in a 20-horse field with fantastic odds on talented horses that would normally be 2-to-1 or less, go for it. Say you love Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner Carpe Diem and you think Firing Line has a big chance to run a big one. If you get 7-to-1 on Carpe Diem and 18-to-1 on Firing Line and you budgeted $20 to bet on the race, play $14 to win on Carpe Diem and $6 to win on Firing Line and you'd be in line to win $112 or $114 if either horse wins. This race, by the way, is the only U.S. race in which I'd ever advocate playing two horses to win. If you do this, be sure to box the two horses in an exacta for a buck ($2 bet). You'd definitely regret not having that ticket when it paid $150 or more.
