MILWAUKEE -- Unlike its counterparts in the NFL and NBA, Major League Baseball's First-Year Player Draft is the ultimate crapshoot.
Add to all the risk factors of the other professional sports drafts, players are getting drafted as young as 18 years old and are years away from making an impact in the big leagues. A quick glance into the history of the No. 12 pick -- the Milwaukee Brewers took Hawaiian prep left-hander Kodi Medeiros with the 12th-overall selection Thursday night -- shows the hit-or-miss variety of the draft slot.
Milwaukee picked at No. 12 just three years ago, selecting right-hander Taylor Jungmann out of the University of Texas. Jungmann has not progressed as quickly as some collegiate pitchers have, but he's made his way to Triple-A Nashville in 2014 and has a 3.52 ERA in 15 1/3 innings since joining the Sounds.
The last player taken 12th to make it to the big leagues was University of Miami catcher Yasmani Grandal, picked by the Cincinnati Reds in 2010 but he made his big-league debut with the Padres in 2012 after being traded to San Diego in the Mat Latos trade.
Grandal hit .297 with eight home runs and 36 RBI in his rookie season of 2012, but the switch-hitting catcher has struggled at the plate ever since. He's also already been suspended 50 games for testing positive for high levels of testosterone. Grandal was then implemented in the Biogenesis case.
It won't be too long before the No. 12 pick in the 2013 draft dethrones Grandal as the most recent pick to make his big-league debut, as third baseman D.J. Peterson has hit .310 with 25 home runs and 98 RBI in 107 minor-league games thus far for the Marlins organization.
Thirty-one of the 48 of players chosen at No. 12 have made it to the big leagues -- including 22 of 27 from 1984-2010 -- but not all have made a lasting impact.
Aaron Crow (Royals, 2009) was drafted as a starting pitcher but has become a very reliable late-innings reliever for Kansas City. After a strong rookie season, Jemile Weeks (Athletics, 2008) has struggled to stay in the big leagues.
High school third baseman Matt Dominguez (2007) came up with the Marlins in 2011 but has established himself as a power threat since being traded to Houston.
Jay Bruce (Reds, 2005) was the last No. 12 pick to make an All-Star team. He's hit over 30 home runs in each of the past three years. Another All-Star went 12th the previous year, as the Angels took future ace Jered Weaver out of Long Beach State.
The Mets thought they had their future center fielder when they took Lastings Milledge at No. 12 in 2003, but he ended up four different teams in six years and hasn't played in a major-league game since 2011.
Kirk Gibson (Tigers, 1978) played more games in the big leagues than any other No. 12 pick, trailed closely by Delino DeShields (Expos, 1987). According to Baseball Reference, Nomar Garciaparra (Red Sox, 1994) has the highest career WAR of any 12th pick at 44.2, as he had a career batting average of .313 with 229 home runs.
With 255 career home runs, Gibson is second in career WAR at 38.3. He'll likely eventually be passed by Weaver, who is already at 34.6. Nobody selected at No. 12 has been inducted into the Hall of Fame, as former closer Billy Wagner (Astros, 1993) probably has the best chance with 422 career saves.
Other players picked at No. 12 who have made an impact in the big leagues include: right-hander Matt Morris (Cardinals, 1995), right-hander Brett Myers (Phillies, 1999), shortstop Adam Everett (Red Sox, 1998), outfielder Doug Glanville (Cubs, 1991), outfielder Oddibe McDowell (Rangers, 1984), left-hander Joe Saunders (Angels, 2002), left-hander John Curtis (Indians, 1966), catcher Todd Ritchie (Twins, 1980) and left-hander Bobby Seay (White Sox, 1996).
The Brewers made Medeiros the 12th prep pitcher to go at No. 12 and the first since the Rangers took left-hander Kasey Kiker in 2006. Kiker never pitched above Double-A, was released by Texas in 2011 and last pitched in the Frontier League in 2012.
Milwaukee gambled on prep right-hander Mike Jones with the 12th pick in 2001. Jones pitched in 154 minor-league games for the Brewers and got to Triple-A in 2009 and 2010 but couldn't just couldn't stay healthy.
Also holding the No. 12 pick in the 1992 draft, the Brewers took another player who never played in the big leagues in Florida State outfielder Ken Felder. He ended up as a .243 hitter in five minor-league seasons before retiring.
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