Heisman Forecast: Fournette's schedule perfectly suited for trophy run
In a Heisman Trophy race there are two elements that are often more powerful than any other: the start and the finish.
That combination -- along with some ridiculous numbers -- helped give Robert Griffin III the award in 2011 as he got on everyone's radar with a dramatic opening night win, then closed by beating Texas on the last weekend before votes were due.
It ultimately drove him past preseason favorite Andrew Luck, and LSU's Leonard Fournette is planting the seeds for a run all his own with a schedule perfectly set up for the Tigers' first win since Billy Cannon in 1969
After back-to-back games against top-25 opponents Mississippi State and Auburn, the sophomore is running for an FBS-best 193.5 yards per game and is also first in scoring at 18 points per. Granted, the goings are about to get a lot more manageable with Syracuse, Eastern Michigan, South Carolina, Florida and Western Kentucky in the coming weeks, but those chances to pad his stats, plus, a daunting November will make Fournette tough to beat.
The Tigers face No. 12 Alabama -- and fellow contender Derrick Henry -- along with Arkansas, No. 3 Ole Miss and No. 14 Texas A&M in the final month, with the possibility of a berth in the SEC Championship Game as well.
Given that schedule, it's entirely plausible that he could reach New York for the ceremony, or even win, with multiple losses. Oklahoma's Steve Owens won with four losses in 1969 and Ernie Davis (1961), Jim Plunkett (1970), George Rogers (1980), Bo Jackson (1985), Tim Brown (1987), Tim Tebow (2007) all played for teams with three regular-season losses. So did Griffin.
But the opening weeks have taught us two things regarding Fourntte: LSU's reliance on him isn't going to dwindle given its 125th-ranked passing game; and coach Les Miles' otherworldly comparisons were clearly not just his typical Mad Hatter hyperbole.
Before we break down who is poised to rise and fall in the race in Week 3, here's a look at this voter's cyber ballot after three Saturdays worth of action.
A true freshman winner remains one of the final hurdles for the award, with Adrian Peterson (second in 2004 to Matt Leinart) and Herschel Walker (third in 1981 behind George Rogers and Hugh Green) coming the closest. A QB has never really mounted a charge, though Rosen could make an interesting case. He had a down game in the Bruins' 24-23 win over BYU, throwing for just 106 yards and tossed three interceptions to one TD, but he has plenty of upcoming chances to jump back into the mix. That begins with Saturday's trip to No. 16 Arizona to face one of the nation's worst pass defenses -- the Wildcats rank 93rd, giving up 254 per. Get back to his Week 1 and 2 levels and Rosen's name will become a bigger part of this conversation.
He returned to the kinds of performances we came to expect over the end of 2014 in torching SMU for 454 yards and five scores and running for another 50 yards and a TD. A dive into Big 12 play will help his profile with the Horned Frogs heading to Texas Tech this Saturday for a potential shootout with a Red Raiders offense that's racking up 590 yards per game. The biggest game on the schedule -- as far as this races is concerned -- is shaping up to be Nov. 21 vs. No. 15 Oklahoma and emerging contender Baker Mayfield, but for the immediate future, Boykin seems to have regained his rhythm with a nice test looming.
In the Spartans' win over Air Force, Cook had his best passing game of the season, going 15 of 23 for 247 yards and four scores and in each of the past three weeks has seen his completion percentage go from 48.4 (vs. Western Michigan) to 62.5 (Oregon) to 65.2 (Air Force). Michigan State has one more tune-up game this weekend against Central Michigan before it dives into Big Ten play -- though considering it doesn't face a team with a winning record until Oct. 17 vs. Michigan, there's nearly a month of tune-up games ahead. Don't sleep on Cooper Rush, the Chippewas QB that Cook will go up against, but the Spartans' leader is poised for a big day given that Central Michigan just gave up 326 yards to Syracuse and its 108th-ranked passing attack.
This was really a given with Urban Meyer's indecisiveness before the season, which has only grown after the closer-than-anyone-expected win over Northern Illinois in which Cardale Jones was yanked minutes into the second quarter. Do the Buckeyes go with Jones again vs. Western Michigan? J.T. Barrett? Move Braxton Miller back to QB? Or maybe the most ludicrous and least possible outcome, go to third string Stephen Collier (hey, it worked for Meyer before)? Regardless, if it wasn't clear months ago given the amount of weapons on this roster, no Ohio State QB is going to hoist the award this season.
The loss to Stanford in Week 3 wasn't on him as Kessler threw for 272 yards and three scores, but this was the kind of game he needed to lead the Trojans in victory to in order to be a force in the trophy chase. The margin of error is now much smaller with some major tests remaining, including this weekend against Arizona State and its ninth-ranked pass D. He remains third in the nation in pass efficiency (202.8), but a year ago, the Sun Devils held Kessler without a touchdown pass in a 38-34 loss at the Coliseum. How he responds after the loss will tell how much longer he carries contender status.
First off, there may not be a more underrated quarterback in the nation. Through the first three games, he has yet to throw a pick and had hit on 68.3 percent of his passes, including 72.7 in Week 2 vs. Nevada and 71.4 against Northern Arizona last weekend. The competition, though, has been lackluster, though that changes in a big way on Saturday night against the Bruins, who rank 17th in FBS in pass efficiency defense (97.9).
Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter @coryjmccartney
