Welcome to the 2009-10 fantasy baseball offseason, folks! We're all Yankee fans around here, exulting as our team looks toward clinching its first World Series title in nine long years ... right? No? I'd better shut up, then. These positional previews will appear every Tuesday until around Christmas. My initial position-by-position ranking lists should also be ready by mid-December. I'd do them now, but before most of the free agent dominoes have fallen into place, what's the point? Here we go with the catchers.
The Man
Joe Mauer, Twins — This guy has three batting titles in five big league seasons, and this year he added a serious amount of power to his arsenal (28 HRs after missing April). Some stat-geek types are worried that the degree of Mauer's newfound power may be fluky, but even at 20 homers he's extremely valuable. I'm debating on whether he's going to be in my first round come February.
The Second Tier
Brian McCann, Braves — Over the last four seasons, McCann's batted .295 while averaging 21 home runs, 92 RBI and 61 runs. He's also averaged 138 games per season, which is a lot for a catcher. He's money in the bank and not as far below Mauer as you might think. Victor Martinez, Red Sox — After an inexplicably bad 2008, Martinez rebounded to bat .303 with 23 homers, 103 RBI and 88 runs. He hit .336 over the final two months of the season after getting traded to the Red Sox, where he was flanked in the lineup by on-base machines Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. A full season in Boston should result in at least a repeat of his 2009 numbers. It should also make me despise him in a way I never have before.
Bouncebacks
Chris Iannetta, Rockies — Yes, I know I told you all year long that Iannetta was going to improve, and it never really happened. Sorry about that. Still, he hit 16 home runs in just 93 games, and his .228 batting average was due in large part to a batting average on balls in play of .253, which was the 10th-unluckiest total in the majors for players with more than 300 plate appearances. Also — HE'S A ROCKIES HITTER!!! How many times do we have to go through this? I used to have season tickets at Coors Field, and it was like watching slow-pitch softball. Draft Iannetta after the first eight or 10 catchers are taken, and you should get a nice value. Mile-high fantasy hitters rule! Geovany Soto, Cubs — Soto's .251 BABIP was even unluckier than Iannetta's. Otherwise, was his awful performance due to injuries, an off year or something else? I'd take a shot at Soto because his 2007 and 2008 numbers make me think he'll bounce back, but I wouldn't invest a starting catcher's pick in a mixed league on him. I'd draft him as a backup only.
Breakouts
Matt Wieters, Orioles — Remember how overhyped Wieters was last spring? Since the bloom is off his rose a bit, 2010 is the time for you to strike if some owners in your league are down on him. You'd have to be in a league of stupid people for that to be the case, but those aren't all that uncommon. Wieters started slowly after his big-league debut in May, but his strong September (.362 BA, three HR, 14 RBI, 13 R, .936 OPS) was the tip of the iceberg. He's likely to be a top-five fantasy catcher in 2010, and you might be able to get him a little lower than that in drafts. I'm betting on a .300 batting average with 20 homers.
Overrated
Miguel Olivo, Royals — Twenty-three home runs? That tied V-Mart for second among all MLB catchers. Olivo must have helped a lot of fantasy teams, and he certainly put himself on the radar for 2010 drafts. Look a little closer, though. Olivo batted .249, which raised his career average to an awful .243. At age 31, his power numbers (HR, SLG, isolated slugging) were easily career highs, and he's an undisciplined hacker who's never walked more than 20 times in a major league season. You want to put your catching position in his one-hit wonder hands? Go right ahead. I'll pass.
Underrated
Kurt Suzuki, A's — At first glance, I was surprised at Suzuki's career-high 15 home runs this season. However, he did hit seven homers in 213 at-bats with the A's in 2007 and jacked a dozen in Class-A in 2005, so it makes sense for a 25-year-old player to increase his production like this. Suzuki also had 88 RBI and eight stolen bases in 2009, and his 37 doubles suggest another modest uptick in power might be on the way. I've seen him ranked as high as sixth among catchers, and that's about right. I think most draftboards will have him a little lower, though.
Sleeper
J.R. Towles, Astros — Towles failed miserably in his 2008 debut as a starter, batting .137 with a .503 OPS in 54 games. Somewhere in Milwaukee, Bob Uecker was overheard saying, "Wow, that's awful." However, unless the Astros want to start gloveman Humberto Quintero or prematurely promote prospect Jason Castro, then Towles is probably their best option. He struggled through an injury-plagued 2009, but did bat .276 with an .842 OPS and four homers in 56 Triple-A games before a late-season promotion. He could hit 10-12 homers with a decent average and be an acceptable fantasy backup. Yes, this is probably the best we've got for potential sleepers at catcher, unless you want me to plug Jarrod Saltalamacchia again because he's, A) big, and B) has a long name.
Slipping
Jorge Posada, Yankees — After hours of exhaustive statistical analysis, I came up with one very important stat line for Posada: Date of birth: 11/17/71 That's it. Posada was terrific this season, hitting 22 home runs with an .885 OPS at age 37, thanks in no small part to the Yankees' bandbox of a new ballpark (which he gets to play in again next season, I know). Catchers just don't keep up this level of performance when they get this old, unless they're Carlton Fisk. You know the old saying, "Better a year too early than a year too late?" I'm bailing on Posada for 2010. It's gotta happen sometime.
Youngster to Watch
Buster Posey, Giants — With Bengie Molina on the free-agent market, Posey has a clear path to the starting job in San Francisco. He hit 13 home runs with a .967 OPS in 80 High-A ballgames this season, then tore it up for a while (five HR, .902 OPS in 35 games) at Triple-A before a late season cup of coffee with the Giants. You're going to see Posey near the top of every prospect list imaginable as the spring approaches, and I'll use similar cautionary language about him as I used about Wieters last season. He's only 22, and he's played 42 games above A-ball. He can be good, but let's not expect him to become Mike Piazza right out of the chute.
