Free agency preview: Big signing by Blues is unlikely, but standing pat is risky, too
ST. LOUIS -- It's the eve of NHL free agency, and what the Blues choose to do over the next several weeks remains intriguing.
Last year, of course, they made arguably the biggest signing of the period by acquiring Paul Stastny from the Colorado Avalanche. The roster proved deep enough that the $28 million center ended up playing a significant part of the year on the third line.
This year, the Blues' position on the brink of free agency is an awkward mix of enviable and undesirable. Their roster remains impressively deep, the kind where it's difficult to identify a glaring weakness. They don't need to do much. And yet the phrase plays over and over again like a bad Justin Bieber song: Three consecutive first-round playoff exits.
The only players who seemed to live up to expectations even remotely in April were winger Vladimir Tarasenko, defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Alex Pietrangelo, and maybe goaltender Jake Allen. That makes identifying the weak link, or the missing link, challenging. The Blues have tried going deep down center. They've tried getting a "big-name" goaltender. They ended up finding that "elite" goal scorer in-house. All to no avail.
Now, they're changing their playing style to faster, more reckless. It's unclear whether that will be enough to get them past the first round next year without some change in personnel.
There have already been a few alterations. News broke earlier this June that the club probably wouldn't bring back veteran defenseman Barret Jackman. According to Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the club will also likely part ways with impending free agents Zbynek Michalek, Marcel Goc and Olli Jokinen, and neither Chris Butler nor Chris Porter was expected to be re-signed before Wednesday, when the free-agent floodgates open.
Still, this doesn't foretell any significant movement by the team in acquiring outside replacements via free agency. The club has already indicated it would like to give guys such as defensemen Robert Bortuzzo (a restricted free agent) and Petteri Lindbohm bigger roles, which means the Blues don't have to hit the open market to replace Jackman and Michalek. Prospects Ty Rattie or Robby Fabbri could land an open forward spot, since the club has expressed interest in getting younger and faster.
So while there may be minor changes via the free-agent market, overall, this year's focus during the summer appears more internal. The Blues' mantra is likely the same as it was at the start of the offseason: Do little until they get restricted free agent Tarasenko under contract. The organization has indicated that he must be re-signed at all costs. Until that cost and length of the deal are determined, everyone's hands are somewhat tied. Bringing back Allen, also a restricted free agent, seems like a foregone conclusion, and it's hard to imagine the club not trying to work something out with Bortuzzo, which means Blues general manager Doug Armstrong has three key assets to worry about keeping happy this summer.
But while a big free-agent signing is unlikely, it's also a gamble for the Blues to do nothing else to their roster before October. Their postseason rut seems an invitation for change, and names such as T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund and even captain David Backes have been tossed around in trade rumors. (Please note the key word in that sentence: rumors.) But Armstrong has also made it clear he won't move someone just for the sake of change. Backes, for example, is a consistent 20-plus goal scorer. Whine all you want about the postseason, but you do have to get there first, and production like that is hard to replace.
In the end, the Blues may have more interest dealing directly with a team than haggling with an expensive free agent, since they have few big contracts of their own leaving, and at least one big contract to sign (Tarasenko's). Or maybe Armstrong will decide he has no interest in moving players from what he calls the "aging" core. Maybe the Blues think adapting their playing style -- faster, reckless -- will be enough.
The one thing the team doesn't have, which it might behoove them to get, is a veteran with recent Stanley Cup experience. Postseason success breeds postseason success in the NHL (hello, LA and Chicago), and on a team that doesn't have any, it might prove useful. But it can also prove expensive, which is not a word that will attract the Blues this summer. Such an approach would also seem to contradict the younger, faster, reckless style the club has been touting, so perhaps it's little more than a thought exercise.
But until Tarasenko re-signs, it's all any of us can do.
You can follow Elisabeth Meinecke on Twitter at @lismeinecke or email her at ecmeinecke@gmail.com.
