This is where the NBA season can get ugly.
It’s where teams fall
out of the playoff picture, watch their casual fan base turn away, and
perhaps contemplate the idea of chasing lottery picks.
It’s where fans and media start pleading for the organizations with which they associate themselves to lose.
On purpose.
Losing,
after all, is the only way to improve your chances of possibly
positioning yourself for a better draft selection. And for teams that
won’t see the postseason, the draft is all that’s left.
Problem is, teams such as Toronto, New Jersey, Golden State, Portland
and the rest still have games to play. Sometimes, those games come
against teams just like them themselves -- teams that have been
eliminated from the playoff race.
Sometimes, that leads to speculation. Sometimes, fans and reporters
wonder if teams in this position aren't keeping one eye on the lottery
and trying to lose on purpose.
And who can blame fans and
reporters for possibly feeling this way? After all, a lottery pick can
change the course of your franchise.
Just ask San Antonio about Tim Duncan, or Oklahoma City about Kevin Durant. (And avoid asking Portland about Greg Oden.)
The draft lottery was invented in 1985 with the idea of putting an
end to these types of alleged nosedives. At first, the NBA drew
envelopes from a barrel. But that resulted in suspicion that perhaps the
envelopes were somehow “marked” to give the first pick to the league’s
preferred team. Read: New York and Patrick Ewing.
So the league switched to a “weighted” system in 1990, tossing
ping-pong balls in a hopper -- the team with the worst record receiving
the most number of balls, and the non-playoff team with the best record
receiving the least.
But this hasn’t really done the trick, with multiple teams now
seemingly fighting to the finish for an extra ping-pong ball, or five.
Just look at this year.
Prior
to Monday’s games, Cleveland had 17 wins. New Jersey, Detroit and
Toronto each had 16. And the Cavs and Pistons play Wednesday night.
Think either team’s biggest fan will feel heartsick if their team loses?
Things are even more complicated out West,
with Denver, Phoenix and Minnesota all a whisker away from making the
playoffs -- and just as close to the lottery.
Now, let’s say the
Suns continue their hot streak and qualify for the postseason. Think
they can win a round? If so, think they can win a title?
If not, then you need to consider their point guard (Steve
Nash) is 38 years old and on the brink of free agency. Their starting
small forward (Grant Hill) is on the brink of 40.
So
would it be better for the Suns to make the playoffs and quickly get
bounced by, say, the Thunder … or get back into the lottery?
Only Degrees of Losing
Every team in this situation faces the
same dilemma. It’s a question of the immediate future vs. the bigger
picture. And no one seems to have a reasonable explanation as to what
may be the best approach for the final 20 or so games.
“I know we are in a pretty good hole to get into the playoffs,"
acting Trail Blazers general manager Chad Buchanan told the Oregonian.
"But we are not throwing in the towel. We are trying to win games until
we are eliminated.”
Really? Then what?
"Let's say we get out of the playoff hunt,
there might be games where we play Jonny (Flynn) or Nolan (Smith) 35
minutes," Buchanan said. "But we are not ready to go there yet. We still
want to hang in this thing as long as we can."
Flynn was a recent pickup in a trade with the Rockets. Smith is a
rookie. Both are point guards. But instead of either seeing the court in
Sunday’s game, the Blazers went with starter Raymond Felton for a long
stretch against the Warriors.
In a worst case scenario (by some standards), Felton finished strong and the Blazers won by three.
What’s
more, writers and fans who follow these non-playoff predicaments will
spend the entire off-season gutting the roster, then bring in a new band
of rookies and free agents. Great idea, but pretty unrealistic.
Otherwise, you’d have a third of the league’s players on the move. Any NBA fan knows it never really works that way.
But
back to the Blazers. It would be understandable if they were actually
rooting for the Nets to win more than themselves. That’s because the
Blazers own the Nets’ pick in the upcoming draft … unless that pick is
among the top three.
So imagine being a Nets fan and watching your team win. Imagine
ending up with the No. 4 pick. Imagine that pick ending up in the hands
of the Blazers.
Not exactly the buzz you’re seeking as you make a move to Brooklyn.
As for the Blazers and their own decisions, well, Blazers writer Jason Quick had this to say about Felton in the Oregonian:
“Why
this franchise feels indebted to keep playing this guy, I have no idea.
There is nothing left to see from Felton, whose attitude and play has
been the single biggest torpedo to this sinking season. The franchise
owes him nothing, not after he committed the most unprofessional of acts
-- coming to training camp overweight and out of shape, then blaming
his poor play on the coach.”
Quick is one of basketball's best writers and knows the Blazers
better than some of the men in uniform. So his analysis should be
trusted.
But a torpedo to a sinking ship? Well, now, that might be precisely what some lottery-bound teams covet.
In these dog days of the NBA, losing is often the only way to win.
Follow Sam Amico on Twitter @SamAmicoFSO
